I would go for a Grant Vortex 15 - 26. This can be range rated to 5 different outputs to suit the installation. It can easily be worked out with a Mear's calculator. 15kw will still probably be too big but that is the smallest you can go without losing efficiency from boiler heat exchanger surface area.
Zoning will ALWAYS be more efficient. I would definitely go with zoning and take avail of the SEAI grant as it will be worth €610 including BER survey grant. It will also give you an independent assessor of the contractors work to ensure work is carried out to standard.