When you say
"but you need to do it on the basis that it's a very long shot you'll get anything out of it."
Do you mean the longshot is the chance of them being bought out?
What I meant is that several things have to happen for you to can get any return:
- the existing company shareholders are all decent people
- the existing shareholders don't have a falling out
- the company is trading profitably
- the company continues to trade profitably
- the company does not want to raise additional funding before an exit event, or if it does you are protected from dilution
- the company does not have to raise additional funding before an exit event
- an exit event actually happens (by "exit event" I mean sale or IPO)
- an exit event happens at the right price
- you remain with the company until an exit event happens
- probably more things!
If any one of these things doesn't happen, there's a good chance you won't get anything. What are the odds of them all happening? I don't know and can't say. What I can say is I've twice in my career been in a similar situation (once with shares, once with options) and didn't get a cent. In both cases there were extremely positive signs that all would be well. I know of many other companies where similar things happened. I know of only one where the founders did well (and even there the people on options didn't get much).
I do of course read the papers and hear of success stories, but when I look at the ones I have direct personal knowledge of, the ratio of people who do well to those who get nothing is not good. Even with the success stories you read about, many will have gone through tough patches somewhere along the line, typically wiping out all options and all but a few (if not all) shareholders along the way.
As I said, the stars have to align in a very particular way to do well in this game. No problem if you realise this and go in with your eyes open, but be prepared to be disappointed, and try and make some attempt to cover off some of the potential pitfalls.
Best of luck!