Thanks Leo.
I'm just trying to grapple with the question.
The IT headline today was that 60% of Covid cases have occurred in NHs. These places are now very, very high risk.
There's loads of reasons why someone is in a NH. Some people are there because the family can not look after the person in the long-term but could reasonably look after the person in the short-term.
My absolute belief is that there must be some people for whom the overall risks of cocooning at "home" for a period are less than the risks of remaining in the NH.
Debating this hypothesis is the essence of my question. As ever, you may well be right!
Just on a point of detail, what exactly do you mean here?
Do they have the capacity to allow ~14 days isolation from others in the household....
In relation to......
…...provide round the clock care now and when restrictions start to be relaxed?
…..let's take it as being for a finite period.
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Perhaps, maybe best to look at the issue in a different way!
1. Is there a group of NH residents for whom cocooning at home would represent a reduced risk overall to the life and well-being of the person?
2. For this group, is it possible and practical to do this?
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Let me elaborate with some back of the envelope stuff:
Assumptions:
1. Total over 70 population is 426,000
2. There are 30,000 people in NHs all over 70
3. 700 have died from Covid - say 350 were in a NH
4. Everyone else who died from Covid is over 70
[None of these assumptions will not be precise - on balance, at a combined level, they are meant to understate the NH risk vs. over 70s outside NHs]
Incidence of death o/s NH = 350/(426,000 - 30,000) = 0.088%
versus
Incidence of death in NH = 350/30,000 = 1.167%
Otherwise put for every 10,000 people over 70,
In the non-NH environment, c. 9 will die
versus
In the NH environment, c. 117 will die