elacsaplau
Registered User
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Do they have the capacity to allow ~14 days isolation from others in the household....
…...provide round the clock care now and when restrictions start to be relaxed?
60% of Covid related deaths. Not 60% of all cases.The IT headline today was that 60% of Covid cases have occurred in NHs. These places are now very, very high risk.
The IT headline today was that 60% of Covid cases have occurred in NHs. These places are now very, very high risk.
There's loads of reasons why someone is in a NH. Some people are there because the family can not look after the person in the long-term but could reasonably look after the person in the short-term.
My absolute belief is that there must be some people for whom the overall risks of cocooning at "home" for a period are less than the risks of remaining in the NH.
Just on a point of detail, what exactly do you mean here?
Apologies Red Onion and Leo for mixing up cases with deaths.
Point taken Red Onion about the sensitivities in all this. As yee were posting, I was editing my previous post with some numbers. Got to do some work now - but I'll repost these figures again because these guesstimates may have been missed earlier.
I appreciate the other points being made - it's a tricky one. In the words of John Prine…...is it better to talk about it or not talk about it?!
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Let me elaborate with some back of the envelope stuff:
Assumptions:
1. Total over 70 population is 426,000
2. There are 30,000 people in NHs all over 70
3. 700 have died from Covid - say 350 were in a NH
4. Everyone else who died from Covid is over 70
[None of these assumptions will be precise - on balance, at a combined level, they are meant to understate the NH risk vs. over 70s outside NHs]
Incidence of death o/s NH = 350/(426,000 - 30,000) = 0.088%
versus
Incidence of death in NH = 350/30,000 = 1.167%
Otherwise put for every 10,000 people over 70,
In the non-NH environment, c. 9 will die
versus
In the NH environment, c. 117 will die
The mortality rate in the general population of over 70s is c. 5%.Government study on NH mortality published in 2018 said:Median survival in NH was 2.2 years. Yearly mortality rate throughout the three-year observation period was 31.8%.
The mortality rate in the general population of over 70s is c. 5%.
……..understanding data is not an amateur hobby. Be cautious with your back of the envelope calculations
Consider your back of an envelope calculation. If you changed 70 to 20, all other assumptions remain valid but you would conclude that NH Covid mortality is 117 per 10k whilst for the population at large it would be less than 1.That's very help, Duke
It might be even more helpful if you show the mortality rate in the general population of the median age used in this report.
I don't want to get into any more trouble and you know how it goes.....
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