no old age pension for those under 40

Sophrosyne said:

But why would he say that, unless he has a crystal ball?

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I think it's a very sensible thing to at least advise people of the possibility of. I personally am assuming that the contributory pension will either be much lower or at least partially means-tested by the time I get to state retirement age. I'm aiming to have sufficient pension/other investments excluding the state pension. If the state pension is there or not means-tested, great - but I really don't want to have watch the pennies in my old age because I didn't plan for something that was quite foreseeable (at least as at a high probability if not a certainty).

orka said:

I think it's a very sensible thing to at least advise people of the possibility of. I personally am assuming that the contributory pension will either be much lower or at least partially means-tested by the time I get to state retirement age. I'm aiming to have sufficient pension/other investments excluding the state pension. If the state pension is there or not means-tested, great - but I really don't want to have watch the pennies in my old age because I didn't plan for something that was quite foreseeable (at least as at a high probability if not a certainty).

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Good for you, personally.

But a pension advisor should be presenting an one the one hand the contributory OAP may not survive, but on the other hand it might and let the investor decide.

Don't know if it's because there's an industry out there promoting it and making a lot of money out of it, but most average folk won't need the amount of dosh that's being thrown out there by the experts. The 10 years after retirement will be about the busiest time they'll have and after that the old pegs won't be doing so much, nor will they want to. I really do think that what people will need is way over estimated.

joe sod said:

You make good points but an Irish equivalent could be the collapse of the euro or break up of European union, this is actually not such an unlikely event as it came close during the financial crisis. This would be equivalent to break up of Soviet union.

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This is just not even close to a realistic assumption. The institutions have been hit very hard in the past recession and survived, furthermore additional provisions have been put in place since then in terms of structural funds higher T1 ratios and so on. In addition Basel III and IV further strengthened pillar banks by increasing the ratios even higher. The new T1 ratios bring most pillar banks into line with those of UBS during the crises - UBS got hit twice during the crises, once for $20b and were able to come because of their T1 ration level.

joe sod said:

A return to a seriously devalued Irish punt would be sort of equivalent to Poland in early 90s. These do and have happened and are not to be discounted.

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The opposite is most likely, any new IrishPunt would in fact become to highly valued and the ICB would have sufficient resources to defend the currency. All through the crises Ireland remained a net exporter - you cannot remain a net exporter for long and retain a cheap currency. At the moment both Germany and Ireland benefit greatly from the Euro - the get to traded in what to them is an undervalued currency and no expense to their exchequer.

noproblem said:

The 10 years after retirement will be about the busiest time they'll have and after that the old pegs won't be doing so much, nor will they want to. I really do think that what people will need is way over estimated.

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This is not the case, the spending just focuses on other things - house conversions to accommodate disabilities, various discretionary medical costs not covered by insurance and so on.