Since 30th June, 2010 Tranche 2 and Mini-tranche 1 and 2 have been transferred and the haircut on these has been €8.724bn. That means that today AIB is left with a balance from June 30th, 2010 NAMA-bound loans at par value (less the transfers to date) of €5.175bn with a remaining provision of minus €4.224bn. If the remaining balance of €5.175bn of €5m+ exposures is to have a discount of 60% that means that AIB needs book a loss and provision for future losses of €7.329bn today. Ouch!
However since June 2010 it has been decided that AIB must also transfer land and development exposures of €0-5m. Along with BoI the total €0-5m exposures is estimated to be €10bn. The split between AIB and BoI has not been revealed but it was previously reported that the €5-20m exposures totaling €6.5bn were split €4.4bn to AIB and €2.1bn for BoI. So on that basis you might expect AIB’s €0-5m exposures to total well over €5bn.
AIB’s non-NAMA commercial property was
provisioned at 15% approximately in June 2010. If AIB transfers half of the €0-5m exposures and they attract a 60% haircut (the betting is that it will be higher as the lower value loans relating to land and development are likely to have fallen 75-90%) then AIB will need an additional €2.25bn provision (€5bn at (60%-15%)). These loans are supposed to be transferred by year end.
So exclusively examining AIB’s NAMA lending it would seem that capital has dropped from €9.466bn in June 2010 by €7.329bn to €2.137bn today. So whilst not insolvent, capital of €2.137bn on €81bn of non-NAMA loans would certainly be in breach of the Financial Regulator’s capital requirements.
And should AIB transfer its €0-5m exposures at a 60% haircut and assuming €5bn of such exposure at par value then the bank will be insolvent. Of course AIB has been trying to raise capital from the disposal of non-core operations. EU approval of the sale of AIB’s 70.5% share in Bank Zachodni in Poland to Santander is expected shortly which will contribute €2.5bn. The sale of the bank’s share in M&T contributed €0.9bn in capital but that will prevent the bank breaching its capital requirements today and it would only mean minimal solvency once the estimated remaining €0-5m is transferred .....