Minister's speech: The Big Picture is Brexit

[Brendan Burgess]

No deal is our central assumption

We have to make resources available in the event of no deal

We have to keep our finances on the credible path

We have eliminated our deficit this year

Our surplus will swing from 0.2% to a deficit of 0.6% of National Income but it's very uncertain.

I acknowledge the cooperation of the main opposition party.

Risks to the global economy are multiplying

But they will be on a different scale to the multiple crises of the Great Recession.

For example, we will still have an increase in employment and tax revenue

The cost of borrowing can shift rapidly

€1.2 billion package to respond to Brexit

• €200 million across agencies and upgrade ports and airports
• €650m to support agriculture, enterprise and tourism
  • €220m immediately - €110m has been identified to help vulnerable firms. food, internationally traded services - support
    • investment and loans
  • €110m through agriculture & marine. Beef sector first priority as will fisheries
  • €40m for tourism - promotions and advertising
  • €390m will be determined closer to the time - farms, businesses and
• €365 m for extra social protection
• €45 m to help people transition to new work.

Funding will be borrowed. If we don't need it, we won't borrow it. If there is a deal, we won't spend it in other areas.

If things are worse than expected, we will use the funds which would have gone into the rainy day fund

I had planned to transfer €500m this year and €1.5 billion from the Irish Strategic Investment Fund.

I will not transfer the €500m this year.

Our economy is in a strong position. Balance was restored last year.

€58.6 billion in tax revenues expected this year.
The economy will grow by 0.7% next year but IFAC has said that this is very uncertain

A deficit of 0.6% is the forecast,but there is a wide margin.

We must manage our public spending.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Two strands to this Budget

The extra steps for Brexit
An improvement in public services

Budgeting in October is difficult - especially due to the overruns such as the health sector

Supplementary estimates this year are half of last year.

€2.8 billion for 2020
€2.1 already allocated

€300m targeted tax changes in this budget to allow for more expenditure.

current spending will increase by 3.5% with the expected outcome for this year.

€70 billion total voted expenditure

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Climate change is the main challenge.

We have to grow the economy while cutting emissions

€8 billion investment directly and €13.7 billion by state companies

Carbon pricing - €80 per ton by 2030 will raise €6 billion.

€6 increase the first step. from midnight tonight for autofuels

May 2020 for heating oil

Will raise €90m in 2020 which will be ring-fenced for climate action measures

But no one group should be left behind by this disruption. I will use a portion to fund a package targeted at the Midlands.

€20m at energy efficient social housing in the region.

€5m for peatland rehabilitation.