Media coverage of results very poor

Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess

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Apart from having an interest in a few individuals in different constituencies, the main thing I wanted to know was the latest forecast for the number of seats for each party.

We were given that by RTE only very occasionally.

Instead , they kept flashing up the number of TDs elected for each party so far, which is of almost no relevance in a multi-seat electoral system.

Even on Morning Ireland today, they gave the number of seats so far twice, without any forecast for the final outcome.

It would have been so easy to give one guy the job of keeping a spreadsheet updated and showing something like the following:

FF 45 +/- 2
SF 39 +2
FG 38 +1

etc.

Or even a table
MinimumprobablePossible
FF414446
SF373942

As of now, I have no idea what the latest forecast is for the number of seats for each party.

Brendan
 
Just checked the Irish Times and the Indo. It's the same thing.

I can't find a forecast anywhere. It might be there, but I can't see it.

Brendan
 
I find it very frustrating also.
Is it too much hard work for them to get someone to look at the constituencies now that the first counts are all in and make a ranged estimate?
 
UCD published one last night
www.thesun.ie

GE seat projection shows Fianna Fail on track to be largest party in country

FIANNA Fail are projected to be the largest party in the country following the General Election, according to UCD’s latest seat projection. Micheal Martin’s party are on course to win 4…
www.thesun.ie www.thesun.ie
1581323257000.png
 
RTÉ have a very pious reporting style where someone can be on 0.95 of a quota on the first count and they are described as 'in the frame for a seat'

Shane Ross was on 0.32 % of a quota on the first count but it took RTÉ several hours to state the bleeding obvious that he would lose the seat.


The reporting is generally really good, with a few exceptions. Abie Philbin Bowman was trying to suggest that Eoghan Murphy was in trouble (he never was) and Des Cahill in Wicklow was just reciting lists of numbers with no insight.
 
So a left alliance would have 63 seats and if all 16 independents supported it, it would come to 79.

FF and FG would have 81

FF and SF would have 82

I wonder if SF would insist on bringing in the Green Party or one of the others for stability? Then they would have a left majority in cabinet.

Brendan
 
There was one RTE reporter with a Cork accent who was very good. Gave a lot of insight and life into his reporting.

I recognised the voice from the radio but he is not on that often.

I saw him once on the TV during the week.

Edit: Barry Lenihan is the guy's name - usually on Drivetime

Brendan
 
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Brendan Burgess said:
So a left alliance would have 63 seats and if all 16 independents supported it, it would come to 79.

FF and FG would have 81

FF and SF would have 82

I wonder if SF would insist on bringing in the Green Party or one of the others for stability? Then they would have a left majority in cabinet.

Brendan
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I don't think SF/FF Government would work without the Greens or some other concoction. If FF do decide that they can after all go into Government, I would not be surprised to see one or two FF TD's decide that they can't support it.
 
I heard 2 or 3 forecasts on RTE radio yesterday and one this morning as well so they were there.
 
Sunny said:
I don't think SF/FF Government would work without the Greens or some other concoction. If FF do decide that they can after all go into Government, I would not be surprised to see one or two FF TD's decide that they can't support it.
Click to expand...
FF/SF/Greens 14/1 with PP
SF have almost done too well for their own good. I can’t see how Mary Lou can accept second fiddle to MM. She is clearly the moral winner much as that is a bit of an oxymoron.
 
Didn't MM/FF repeatedly rule out coalition with SF? I think that it's admirable that MM now seems potentially prepared to reconsider his avowed position, however reluctantly, in the national interest.

MM's commendable position can be compared and contrasted with LV's intransigence. Leo seems to be trying to peddle the line that he somehow meant what he said before the election.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Apart from having an interest in a few individuals in different constituencies, the main thing I wanted to know was the latest forecast for the number of seats for each party.
Click to expand...

I was glued to RTE radio and TV from about 8am yesterday. I recall seeing the UCD forecast after 6pm last night. I assume they could not do it earlier as it was simply not possible to forecast where the SF first preferences would move to. In most constituencies there was no second SF candidate, so the spread of distribution was a known unknown. Without that data, any forecast would be uninformed speculation.
 
elacsaplau said:
Didn't MM/FF repeatedly rule out coalition with SF? I think that it's admirable that MM now seems potentially prepared to reconsider his avowed position, however reluctantly, in the national interest.

MM's commendable position can be compared and contrasted with LV's intransigence. Leo seems to be trying to peddle the line that he somehow meant what he said before the election.
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It's not that easy though. Both FG and FF have done internal polling on this and both show that the supporters who vote for them are against it. Especially in Dublin where FF are already struggling.

The size of the SF vote does change things but FF and FG are between a rock and a hard place. FG are looking like they will accept opposition and they are right to do that. They have nothing to gain by going in with either FF or SF. FF are going to have real problems here no matter what they do. Going by media interviews, it sounds like the party is at risk of splitting already.
 
Sunny said:
FG are looking like they will accept opposition and they are right to do that...….FF are going to have real problems here no matter what they do.
Click to expand...

Hey Sunny,

Happy new week!

You know I don't like it when people make contradictory statements!;)

So, it's right for FG to keep this specific promise but it's not right for FF to keep the self-same promise? It really should be that simple.
 
elacsaplau said:
Hey Sunny,

Happy new week!

You know I don't like it when people make contradictory statements!;)

So, it's right for FG to keep this specific promise but it's not right for FF to keep the self-same promise? It really should be that simple.
Click to expand...

I don't get the point you are making. Nobody saw SF getting the % of first preference votes. We might not like but that gave SF a mandate that can't be ignored. Both FF and FG have said they wouldn't go into Government with SF. FG have stuck to that and it is clear why. The numbers don't stack up and there is nothing in it for them. The lack of numbers gives them the excuse to stick to their pre-election view.

FF are in a much trickier situation. They said they wouldn't go into Government with them but the numbers do stack up and they can rightly claim that with such a huge first preference vote, that the people have given SF a mandate to be in Government and they can't ignore it. We are not talking about 10-15 SF seats here. We are talking about mid 30 seats. Nobody including SF saw that.

The problem for FF is that there are parts of the party that will never accept going into Government with SF and so the party will split. It will be an embarrassing climbdown for FF but it is the only option to form a Government. So either FF change their view and risk breaking up the party or we vote again..... And if we vote again, want to predict what could happen????
 
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