March 2012 Arrears figures published

Brendan Burgess

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| accounts |balance|arrears|
Total home mortgages|764,138|€113 billion
Accounts in arrears over 90 days|77,630 (10.2%)|€15 billion|€1.3 billion|1% of mortgage balances
Restructured and not in arrears|38,658 |€6.3 billion
Important note: These figures relate to the number of accounts. Many homes have more than 1 mortgage account associated with it. If there are 1.25 accounts per home, the figures for homes would be as follows

| homes |balance|arrears|average
Total homes|611,310|€113 billion||€185k
Accounts in arrears over 90 days|62,104 (10.2%)|€15 billion|€1.3 billion|€20,900
Restructured and not in arrears|30,926 |€6.3 billion
 
|31 March 2010|31 March 2011|31 March 2012
Number of mortgages in arrears over 90 days| 21,187|49,602|77,630
Number of mortgages restructured and not in arrears|n/a|39,662|38,658
Total number of mortgages|791,047|782,429|764,138
% in arrears over 90 days|2.7%|6.3%|10.2%
% not in arrears over 90 days|97.3%|93.7%|89.8%
 
Only 178 accounts are actually in the Deferred Interest Scheme. This really surprises me.

Types of restructuring
Greater than interset only|13,854|
Term extension| 9,667|
Interest only|27,798|
Arrears capitalisation| 9,576|
Paying at least the interest||60,895(76%)
Hybrid| 3,849
Less than interest only|11,390
Deferred Interest Scheme| 178
Payment moratorium| 3,400
Total|79,712
 
Repossession data

|Total 2010 |Q1 2011|Q2 2011|Q3 2011|Q4 2011 |Total 2011|Q1 2012
Repossessed by court order|102|49|54|43|50|196|65
Voluntarily surrendered|262|91|119|119|83|412|105
Total|364|||||608|170
 
These figures for arrears are still astonishingly low.

90% of people are not in arrears of over 90 days, despite


  • 4 years of a recession/depression
  • 14% unemployment
  • reduced salaries for those in work
  • Increased taxes for everyone
  • widespread irresponsible lending and borrowing
  • and a 50% -60% crash in house prices
 
What I find surprising about the figures is that the amount in arrears is just 1% of the total balances.

I think any business would be delighted to have a bad debt provision of 1% of their debtors total.
 
Those numbers are an absolute shocker. It is hard to imagine how they could have been much worse. The number of those in arrears over 90 days has almost doubled in 12 months. That must almost be unheard of in a western economy. And there is another 5% who are not in arrears but only because they have restructured. For "restructured" read "on interest only" - i.e. "delay and pray".... A good chunk of those will never get back on an even keel. So the problem is even worse than it appears.
 
About 60,000 mortgages are in arrears by more than six months, yet less than a thousand houses have been repossessed! There is a hidden tsunami waiting to be unleashed here that will overwhelm the banks.... for the second time in four years.

No matter what way you look at these figures, the current strategy for "dealing" with mortgage arrears has failed spectacularly. Irish Banking Crisis, Part Deux is a certainty because of this policy failure. And it would probably have been avoidable had the policymakers listened to the right people from the start............
 
Irish Banking Crisis, Part Deux is a certainty because of this policy failure. And it would probably have been avoidable had the policymakers listened to the right people from the start............
Click to expand...
Excuse my ignorance but are the current policy makers? the government ? Central bank ? ecb ? Who are the 'right people' ?
It seems to me that there are a raft of issues that overlap and no definitive 'policy makers'.
 
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