LIBOR future direction................

Ethan 1

Registered User
Messages
88
Currently have a mortgage from KBC that is tied to the Libor, would be interested to hear opinions as to its future. INMHO the FED, BoE and the ECB will start to raise their rates in the next 12 to 24 months.
 
Sorry, should have been clearer, I have an investment property in the UK and financed the purchase of it with an investment mortgage from KBC. My question is "What drives the LIBOR ? ", IMO it seems to be a measure of how free flowing the money markets are rather than a region specific economic indicator. It has been dropping recently and currently stands at 2.03% (from KBC) I am trying to determine what effect inflation would have on the rate.
 
Exactly Ringledman, hence my question whether the OP was speculating on interest rates or investing in property.

If you do a bit of research on google from similar past events you should be able to see what happened to mortgage rates and rents in any particular type of economy. Then you can plug these say 5 scenarios with different interest rates and rental income levels and capital growth into a simple (property) investment model together your choices of either a) a Libor variable rate mortgage compared to b) a fixed rate mortgage or c) cashing out now (which seem to me to be your 3 basic choices).

Wouldn't take long to do and you'd have the peace of mind of having your own prediction rather than relying on someone else's generic wisdom.

Libor has recently been completely decoupled from base rates. That's what the credit crisis has been all about. Rates are currently theoretically incredibly low, but just try to lend cash from someone at that quoted base rate.

I think if you do the scenario analysis you'd probably come up with the following 5 scenarios and results.

1) things get worse and the Libor or base rate actually goes negative together with persistent asset deflation - very very unlikely, but it would probably be a disaster for all property investments no matter what you do. Best way to act then would probably be to cash out now and buy a farm to produce your own food whilst you still can if you believe this is the future.

2) Japanese style long term low rates - unlikely but possible. This would lead to long-term stagnation in capital growth, so you'd have to be happy with a steady rental yield to stay invested. Fixed rate mortgage may not be the very best compared to a variable rate Libor mortgage but it ain't bad either. Cashing out and investing in something else may also be the best option here but it's all pretty horrible.

3) long grinding recovery with lowish rates and low inflation - most probable scenario seemingly currently priced into the market. Might be time to buy your protection now of a fixed rate mortgage if you can do that at a reasonable premium. Investments made at the current price entry point could turn out very well in the long term.

4) sharp spike in inflation and interest rates as the economy flips into overheating - not very likely but certainly possible and would be potentially disastrous for a property investment on a variable rate mortgage if rents didn't climb in lock step to interest rates. I remember mortgage rates going to 15.5% in 1990 with inflation at 9% but rents weren't climbing that much from what I can remember. A dose of inflation mightn't be so bad for your investment if you've locked in a reasonable mortgage rate: rents go up and your debt stays the same.

5) everything back to the benign conditions of 2004 with a return to capital growth. Possible but very unlikely. That would mean a fixed rate pegged in current conditions would pretty much be a golden deal.

In conclusion: I would have certainly thought that an ultra-long-term fixed rate mortgage would protect you from the upside inflation risk whilst not costing you too much over a variable rate linked to libor (provided of course that the premium over base isn't ridiculously high in the short term). The long term 30 year mortgage rate is after all at its lowest in 37 years in the US. Long term fixed rate mortgages have never been popular in the UK but are much more popular elsewhere. It would help if you stated which country and currency your mortgage was in.

Libor is pretty unlikely to go lower and even if it did what would be the benefit on your investment?

Suggest the OP runs these 5 scenarios through his own calculations to see what would happen to his investment.


see also e.g. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortga...le.html?in_article_id=394265&in_page_id=53957

There's a simple calculator here:
http://money.uk.msn.com/mortgages/calculate/rent_buy_calculator.aspx

Being a landlord, you'd of course want the result to come out that it is better to buy.
 
Martin77 thanks for the very informative post. Planning to fix the rate for between 3 and 5 years if possible.

E1
 
Maybe it's obvious, but make sure you really read the contract before signing and know what your options/ redemption charges are both during and at the end of the fixed-rate period, and do not just compare the headline rates. My personal preference is for fixing for as long as possible. Where I live, ten years fixed is the new norm, not just three.