Israel to win Eurovision?

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Duke of Marmalade

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An amazing thing has happened in the betting. Israel have come in from over 20/1 down to under 2/1 to win EV on foot of their SF qualification. (Au contraire Ireland have gone out to 18/1).
Charlie McGettigan on RTÉ said he was disgusted Israel qualified.
So how does this figure?
This is clearly a bet on the political vote and it sort of makes sense. The population of Europe probably splits 90% anti Israel and 10% pro over this Hamas/Gaza thing. But the 90% anti aren't really relevant - what? are they going to gang up and vote Croatia tactically? But the 10% have no such problem - they vote for Israel. Put another way, Israel is carrying a huge advantage over the others in having this positive political vote, the others have to win by having the best song.
But I have always been amazed that the markets get it so right on EV - and I suspect they know something more, possibly that Israel got through the SF very comfortably.
Of course, it was no surprise that Ukraine won two years ago on a political vote but are now 25/1 to carry that off again.
 
There's a also a thread for Eurovision 2024 here, so on this thread will focus on the betting \ who will win aspect.

Eurovision 2024 and all that . . .

I've watched and enjoyed the two semi finals and enjoyed them. Ireland could win this!!!!!!! - I felt sorry for the Belgian entry last night, the singer delivered a beautiful song magnificently and failed to qualify. I'll have to watch the final of Eurovision on the Plus One as Cork have a...
www.askaboutmoney.com

Almost half the votes come from juries, and I don't think there's anything too special about the song that will lead it to do better than average with the juries.
 
There's a theory doing the rounds on the internet that the massive televote for Israel in Italy could be because of how the songs were broadcast... Italy appeared before Israel, but were not eligible for voting as already qualified (Big Five thing).
Technically Israel were #14 for voting but some Italians may in confusion have voted #14 for Italy.
 
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