Is the $ slide the start of a collapse?

Persius said:
From the MSN article on the Euro. I guess this is good news for Ireland. As we export alot to the UK, strength of the pound will hopefully ofset some of the effects of dollar weakness wrt the Euro.
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Actually, these days the US and the UK are of equal importance with about 20% of Irish trade each, the rest of the EU with about 45% and 15% to the rest of the planet. We've come a long way in terms of diversifying our trade since the early 80s when about 70% of all our trade was with the UK alone.
 
Most of the predictions for 2007 that I've read so far are predicting a further fall in the dollar relative to the Euro as the year progresses. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it develops.
 
I read a pretty good article in last Sundays Times which took the opposite view, that the $ fall has been oversold and that the end of 2007 will see a $1.20 price. I'll post the link if I find it.
 
Looking into buying some stock on the Nasdaq but am concerned with the current rate of exchange. (or more correct; the future rate of exchange)

Any good resources that someone here can point me to as to possible movements of the dollar against the euro.
 
today in buttercrane newry for £100 i got 150 euro,s i think this is the most i ever got, so its on the slide against sterling has been this long time also
 
ainya said:
today in buttercrane newry for £100 i got 150 euro,s i think this is the most i ever got, so its on the slide against sterling has been this long time also
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Nah, that's a rate of €1: £0.66. The Euro/Sterling rate has been bouncing around between 0.66 and 0.69 for the last 3-4 years. Nothing particularly new there. Though Sterling will probably stay at the high end of that range for the next 12-18 months for technical reasons as the world's central banks try to quietly offload dollars. The money has to go somewhere during that process. STG£, CAN$, CHF, HK$, OZ$ and possibly Yen will all be bought up in large amounts, along with gold.

It can't last though because there's just waaay too many dollars out there for the other major currencies and resources to take up the slack.
 
Any predictions ( i know predicting exchange rates is a fools game ) on where say the euro/dollar exchange rate will be in say 6 months time ?
 
charttrader said:
If you 'know' it's a fool's game, why ask?
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Bragging rights for the winner? Bit of fun?

I wouldn't expect a large slide in the dollar till Q407/Q108. For the rest of 07? Ummmmm.....

*pulls numbers out of air*

A slow 7-10% depreciation trend with lots of ups and downs, dead cat bounces, suckers rallies and general confusion. Followed by a sudden 15-20% correction, then another year of confusion but trending down another 10% or so.

All of the above is based on absolutely nothing at all and should not be used by anyone sane in making investment decisions. What do I win if I'm right?
 
phoenix_n said:
Thanks for your contribution.
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I was not being sarcastic, I'm trying to make a point.

You said you wanted to invest in a Nasdaq stock but were worried about currency fluctuations and wanted to know where other posters believed the dollar was headed - despite the fact that you 'know' this is a fool's game. This is an obvious contradiction.

You have a number of choices.
1- You could open a spread betting account, where currency fluctuations are not an issue (however, your stock may not be available to bet on).
2 - You could invest in your stock and hope that currency movements do not impact you negatively. After all, if you genuinely believe that its movements are unknowable, then there is a much chance as you gaining from them as there is losing from them.
3 - If you think the risk is too great, don't invest in US stocks.

If your interest in euro/dollar movements was a matter of simple intellectual curiousity, I would not have commented. However, you seem to be looking for predictions to guide you in your investments, despite the fact that you denounce this as a fool's game. It just doesn't make sense.
 
charttrader said:
I was not being sarcastic, I'm trying to make a point.
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A point that i had already made so i was looking for predictions disregarding how difficult and foolish it may be. If i had asked the question in a bar etc your retort would not have been helpful to say the least. I dont see why an internet forum should digress from normal manners.

Thanks.


Can someone predict how the currency may do. No not really. But people can make informed guesses. And that is what i was looking for.
 
I dont see why an internet forum should digress from normal manners.

Phoenix, I already said I wasn't being sarcastic - no offence was intended. To repeat, I was making a simple point.

So as not to distort this thread, this will be my last remark on the matter.
 
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