Is the euro unpopular?

I think the euro has, overall, been good for Ireland.


Pros:
Low interest rates due to Germany/France, for those building own properties this makes things cheaper - for those buying in competitive market you could argue it has just inflated the original purchase cost and therefore your monthly repayment may not be much below what it would have been under higher interest rates (if we assume less competitive bidding so lower original cost).

Travel convenience - this works outside the EU too as Asia, South America etc. who used to only real deal with the dollar, and maybe sterling, are now getting used to the euro.

Helping competiveness - Euro not particularly strong (US$ has been nearly artificially weak up to lately) so exports reasonably cheap. Look at Britain, who wants to buy from them - sterling is prohibitively strong, even for the casual tourist, let alone the bulk buyer.

Cons:
The traditional 'rip-off' culture again took their opportunity to take the piss. Also the general inflationary trend that was going for a while might have offset or even reversed the currency effect on competitiveness.

Travel cost - while it helps our exports, it does make things a bit dearer if going to strong currency locations like UK.

Overall:

Given our balance of trade with exports exceeding imports I think the euro has been good for that. Inflation has been a bit of a pain but I dont think you can blame the Euro per se for this - 1 became 1.27, its what the shysters did next that caused the inflation, and low interest rates for home builder like myself makes for unmitigated good news.
 
"Euro not particularly strong (US$ has been nearly artificially weak up to lately) so exports reasonably cheap"

No you are wrong the dollar is now a very weak currency on fundamentals. The euro has actually been artificially strong over the last few years but only because it is not the dollar. Now people are unsure about the stability of the euro. The Fed has been raising interest rates for the last year but the euro rates have stayed at 2% this is the reason for the dollar rally. Many people think that the european interest rates will drop further however I am convinced this will not happen. For the time being they will remain at 2% but very shortly they will start rising trailing the dollar somewhat, and the Fed will also be forced to keep rising interest rates in order to keep the asians buying dollar assets.
 
"Look at Britain, who wants to buy from them - sterling is prohibitively strong, even for the casual tourist, let alone the bulk buyer."

You are correct with this and sterling is due for a substantial fall. This is the currency that the speculators will target next. It has been unusually strong over the last decade because of the strong british economy. However the british economy is alot weaker than it looks on the surface. Sterling has crucified manufacturing and exports from britain and this is starting to tell on the british economy now that the consumption and housing boom is coming to an end. But a much more significant fact is that North Sea Oil has peaked and is dropping off now. British oil production dropped 10% over the last year just as oil prices began hitting historic highs.
if anything the euro will rise again or at the least won't drop any further against the dollar. The german and french economies are alot stronger than they look on the surface. Germany is the second largest exporter in the world hardly a "weak economy. When a conservative government is elected in germany in september it will be the start of big changes and reform in germany. So the next 15 years will be good for France and Germany, but bad for America, Britain and Ireland. Ireland will be particularly hard hit with the nightmare combination of a weak dollar and sterling and a strong euro together with much higher interest rates.
 
I am highly scpetical as to whether the € will strengthen, it will drop off to about €1.05-1.15 to the $ by end next year.

By end next year the new German govt will have proven itself .....or not .
 
"By end next year the new German govt will have proven itself .....or not ."

You don't give them much time. Margaret Thatcher didn't prove herself in one year (by the way Im no fan of hers). It will be the same as the conservatives under margaret thatcher getting re elected after the socialist governments of the seventies in britain.
 
"THE euro will continue to fall against the dollar and the row over the new EU constitution could spark a flight of capital from the currency zone, a senior economist warned yesterday.

Bank of Ireland economist Dr Dan McLaughlin said the currency has the potential to fall to as low as $1.15 and to stg66p. "

"This could prompt a shift out of euro assets, particularly if the anti-euro sentiment apparent in some countries intensifies," he said.

Dr McLaughlin concluded that at a minimum the euro's cyclical advance, which took it from $0.823 to $1.366, may well be over, and on a technical basis the fall through $1.238 throws up $1.159 as a possible target."

For some reason Dan McLaughlin seems intent on talking down the euro and talking up the dollar. He seems to be hoping that the current crisis will make the ECB reduce interest rates. Of course a stronger dollar and a weaker euro would be great for the irish economy. What McLaughlin seems to be playing at is maintaining peoples expectations that the good times for the irish economy will continue, that interest rates will stay low, that the dollar will get stronger etc etc. Of course he may turn out to be a "comical Ali" figure still talking things up when everything is falling down around him.
 
Just wanted to resurrect this thread to see what people's opinions are on the future of the Euro. On Todays FM's "Sunday Business Show" this past Sunday Mary Ellen Synon was talking about the fact that that the Euro will only last 4/5 more years and that every Financial Analyst in the City of London knows this. She felt Italy would leave first to be followed by Greece. This is the first time I have heard such an opinion expressed and thought it was pretty unusual. Personally I feel that an end to the Euro would be catastrophic for Ireland - the impact it would have on interest rates here would probably leave half the country bankrupt.
 
Thanks Warren for resurrecting the post.

for the record here is my original post:


This anti Euro sentiment seems to be emanating from the the City of London and supported by the English Press.

aj
 
It's just her opinion, the furore over the Italians leaving the euro has died a lot since it was first raised. I heard the piece on Today FM, and it was pretty much a throwaway remark-nobody challenged her to back up this wildly speculative and sensationlist comment (that Italy would leave the euro, followed by Greece, and then Ireland).
 
She was also asked about her belief that the US should not have gotten involved in either of the World Wars and asked if she wasn't at least pleased with who the winners of WWII were made a comment about having been pleased with Hiroshima at any rate. I have to say I was horrified at the unrepentant way she said it - and by the fact that no one challenged her. Wouldn't be inclined to have any respect for her views I don't think.
 
I think Mary Ellen Synon should not be dismissed as a troll, after all she has a unique insight into the international finance at the highest level.

Mary Ellen Synon was nicknamed "the Bonk of England" by tabloid newspapers in 1995 after she disclosed that she and Rupert Pennant-Rea had had sex on the governor's dressing room floor at the Bank.
Click to expand...
see Bonk.


Having said that, the best way to counter her assertions is the aggressively challenge and refute them with evidence.

I still wonder where this anti euro sentiment is being orchestrated and more importantly why? I suspect there are powerfull vested interested who would like to destroy (or damage) our currency.


aj
 
ajapale said:
Having said that, the best way to counter her assertions is the aggressively challenge and refute them with evidence.
Click to expand...

Or dismiss it as speculation until she offers evidence to back them up?

I think that the article you linked to gives an example of what kind of person she is. If someone has such conservative/controversial views on the disabled, can we necessarily have any faith in what she says about the common currency? The two might not be linked, but I think that they are both indicative of adopting 'extremist' positions.
 

Yes did anyone have any idea what she was on about there. What sort of reasoning could she have for asserting that the U.S. should not have got involved in either WW. Im not certain about WW1 but I dont think there was any way they could have ignored the Japaneese attack on Pearl Harbour
 

Not agreeing with her viewpoint but it is arguable that the US were already involved in WW2 before Pearl Harbour as they were providing supplies to the British. Not sure if that had much influence on the Japanese who I believe had other reasons for Pearl Harbour.
 
There has always been a strain of isolationism in American Foreign policy particularly among Small Government/Libertarians. In fact the most virulent opposition to the war in Iraq comes from this group not from Democrats. Check out LewRockwell.com.
 
I HATE the euro. If for nothing more than I cannot stand having so many bloody coins.

As a project I don't see it lasting. I mean the current half-in-half-out scenario is a bit barmy. If we had to drop the punt for anything it should have been for sterling.

One of the biggest arguments for the euro was that it would make the interest-rate setting process independent of member state governments - because it was said governments would always consider their own re-election more important than what was best for the economy at that time. Ergo lets set up the ECB with a bunch of Eurocrats who will decide rates for a "euroland" economy that is totally economically diverse.

Completely mad.
 
I for one, would get rid of the 1,2 and 5 cent coins-they're a complete pain ...daithi
 
I HATE the euro. If for nothing more than I cannot stand having so many bloody coins.
Click to expand...

What currency were using prior to the euro? Personally I don't mind the €2 coin, considering it's the only extra coin we now have
 
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