Is the bust already under way ?

Am doing some buying and selling at the moment and I would venture that the bust has already started. This combined with the number of Auction withdrawals.

Anyone else have similar experience ?

Bust

Looks like a seasonal slowdown to me. Interest rates would have the biggest impact on the market. Euro is at 1.18 dollars now. If the dollar slide continues eurozone interest rates are probably not going to rise in the next year

Busted !!

Yes believe the bust is well underway.

Would also guess that this will take months / years to unfold.

The symptoms and first indications are present. The prices are really high BUT no one can find a buyer.

Beware the slippery slope and all that...........

Bust

Yes, no is buying at the moment the bust has certainly started but it will take until after Christmas for the real affect to be seen. There will be lots of property on the market after Christmas. October is one of the months that buyers are suppose to be out there buying - this is not so now.

Re: Bust

It would be nice to have some statistics to back this up though rather than peoples experiencies ie for same period last yr no of houses on the market that were turning vs now, avg lenght of time houses on the market etc.

Also, what are teh most affected sectors ....

- Entry level housing
- 250k-350k bracket
- upgrades etc.

what are the big influences in the so called 'slow down or even bust'

Alot of people would be really interested to know this.

If there is a bust then I would think that the most vunerable would be those who are selling their own to buy another ie possibly paying the high offer price but unable to offload their own at the 'expected inflated' price.

ninsaga

Still Booming

I must disagree with the comments above. I am house hunting at the moment and keep getting out bid. I've also been to two auctions and both properties made double the guide price!!
My price range is 250k-400k.

The larger and more expensive properties don't seem to sell as fast but I think this is alot to do with the excessive stampduty.

Re: Still Booming

I spoke to an estate agent in Swords last week and he said the market there has slowed considerably due to oversupply and also the new motorway which has caused people to consider places a little further out like Skerries/Rush/Lusk.

I think if the market is slowing it will hit areas like Swords/Lucan/Blanchardstown first just like it did the last time house prices went sideways/downwards in 2001.

EB

Is the bust underway

I am buying in the Dublin 7 area at the moment and I don't see any slowdown of prices in that area. Well maintained properties are still achieving well over the asking, while terreced houses are achieving at least the asking.

It looks to me that people are finally starting to see that paying high prices for properties in the Lucan, Swords and Blanchardstown areas etc, is leaving them open to a rougher landing as things slow down. They are far better off paying an extra 25k to buy a 250k house in a more established area than 225k for a 2 bed duplex or apartment in Lucan.

I've even seen people paying 200k for a 3 bed in Mullingar. Its a semi d with all the trimmings but in a slowdown i think the prices will drop considerably.

I think that while there has been some justification for the price rises in and around the city center, there can be no justification for them so far out. Too many people have ran scared from the city prices and so builders have lashed up the prices in the country. Interesting times ahead.

Re: Is the bust underway

I can see a real slowdown in my area at the moment, most of the properties I've looked at have had in some cases 2-3 auctioneers trying to sell their property and most are still on the market with no bids in place or with bids below the asking price, I'm currently the highest bidder on two properties and whichever one I get a sale agreed on is the one I will take.

Re: Is the bust underway

D7,

It may be a cliche its true: Location, location, location.

Most of the people I know who have or are living in the new areas of Swords, Lucan etc view them as stepping stones to somewhere else (BTW I was one of those people once) and not as their long term residence. If I was doing it all again I would have bought a 2 bed house in a top location instead of a 4 bed in a not so good location.

I think when prices soften the better areas will be much more resilient...

EB

i'd say your right ...

about the location thing. People will pay anything for the 'good' location'. My pals have just moved to Blackrock where 700,000 will buy you a mere 3 bed semi. They had no problem selling their old place either so I wonder about the bust. An estate where there is 1000 indentical homes will allways have a easily definable market value I guess, and therefore go down quicker.

Re: i'd say your right ...

700K for 3 bed semi? must be some house! I would have thought around the 400-500 mark max for a blackrock 3 bed.

In any case people will always want to live in blackrock , they won't IMHO always want to live in Swords/Lucan etc...

EB

Re: i'd say your right ...

Think of how many houses/apartments you could buy in Bulgaria for 700k! :lol

Bulgaria

yeah.... but the commute would be a killer!!!!!

bust

How many house/flats would you get in London for 700k 2 or maybe 3

Burst

You would get 3 houses and have some change for that amount of money???

Re: Burst

>You would get 3 houses and have some change for that >amount of money???

3 houses for £483,000 Sterling? You would need to be buying in some seriously bad parts of London.

I don't think it's fair to compare high end house prices in Dublin with Low end house prices in London.

There are places in Dublin where houses cost a lot less than €700,000 and in the UK there are MANY places where a house will cost much much more than £483,000.

-Rd

house prices

I'm getting tired of listening to stories about the housing bubble bursting! For me, it seems like its the same people for the last 5 years telling me about it and once it does they'll buy up loads of houses for really cheap!

For the past 5 years I have owned my own house, bought for 120k and now worth 320k, and have enjoyed every day of living there - light years better than renting. And I think I'm safe enough as a 200k drop in house prices is unlikely. So maybe looking back, these same people should have been brave and bought then? Or maybe the following year or maybe they could be brave and buy now?
You never know they could look back in 5 years from now and say Thank god I bought then or will they still be talking about the bubble bursting while living in rented accommodation?

But, perhaps the prophets are all correct and the bubble will burst and then they can go around claiming that they knew it was going to happen and buy up all the cheap properties, but if they do drop then I too would love to buy up a few of these cheap houses - especially with interest rates so low. But with all these people just waiting to buy the cheap properties doesn't that mean they'll start to race back up in value again?

And finally, I don't really think that these people will ever buy a house, they will always find a reason not to.

Re: house prices

but if they do drop then I too would love to buy up a few of these cheap houses - especially with interest rates so low.

Click to expand...

Methinks that higher interest rates will have prevailed by then thus actually causing any bust/slowdown.

Re: house prices

Methinks that higher interest rates will have prevailed by then thus actually causing any bust/slowdown.

Click to expand...

But this isn't part of the prophets argument. Its just said that the prices will drop, no reason given other than "they can't keep rising".

Besides, it's my belief that house prices always have and always will be expensive in this country - relative to peoples incomes and interest rates. So I agree with what you're saying, because if they did drop, very few people would be buying the so called cheap houses as very few people will have the money to do so.