Is Gold overvalued at todays prices? The reason I ask is that it cannot be printed at all, and so is immune from bad money management.
But it can be produced, through mining... and this sets a lower bound on golds value... as it's hard to imagine how gold would fall further than the price it costs to mine it. I think it cost between $600 and $1,000 per ounce to mine... and is currently selling for $1,800.
Is gold guaranteed to crash in price at some stage, and what would a reasonable bottom be?
To the OP, .. personally I would avoid banks, and invest in gold,.. but that is risky. I think there are risks with all of your other options too. There doesn't seem to be any safe havens. Gold is a currency in its own right.. it's just a question of whether its current price (its current exchange rate), is too high or not.
Is there any way to calculate a 'fair' price for gold?
Where can figures be obtained for the amount invested in other types of investment,.. i.e such and such an amount invested by European pension funds?, .. or,.. the entire value of UK or Irish property?, and how do these values compare to the total price of all the available gold? Is it certain that gold would always be chosen over all other materials as a basis for a physically backed currency? Will we have physically backed currencies in 10, 15 or 30 years, or will we have paper promises?
I think the US will not be able to pay it's debts back,, or fund its future liabilities . perhaps it can roll them over for ever, or deflate them away, but I wouldn't expect so. So I think, as a layman, that most major currencies are weak and highly indebted, and may fail or default. Perhaps there are strong currencies, but if the large weak ones go I don't know what happens to strong currencies. There might be a massive rush to gold, which is obviously already happening., .. but there might be hundreds of billions rushing, which would really drive prices up.
My point is that I expect some major currencies to fail or default, and the US $ not to be the worlds major reserve currency, within 30 years, but probably within 10. The level of indebtedness seems to be huge, and increasing, and there are also issues like peak oil and climate change that will have an effect over a 30 year time period.