I suppose , I am wondering what is the statistical chance of either or both of us dying in the next 20 years and if that is worth an investment of 87,000.
The policy is indexed at 8% rather than 5% because each year the sum insured is going up by 5% but you are a year older buying the extra 5%.
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In regard to claims, statistics wont really mean much. You are purchasing peace of mind, not purchasing to make a profit. Anyone can get ill or knocked down by a bus.
But this is meaningless without knowing the total number of policies for men under 50, lifestyles of the persons involved, family history etc.
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I think you answered your own question here. Any statistics on claims wont give you a breakdown on your exact set of circumstances as everyone will have different mitigating factors.
For example; X amount of people die of cancer, but some people get screened regularly increasing the chance of full recovery and some dont. X amount of people die of heart attacks but some people dont get their blood pressure/cholesterol checked so are unaware that contributory factors are mounting until its too late.
Insurance is about insuring against a worst case scenario. I agree the quote you got seems excessive and possibly will over insure you but knowing the exact percentage of people that claim wont help you as there is always a tendency to assume that things happen to someone else.
You could also ask your broker to ask the insurance company for some claim statistics, depending on the company they may oblige your request.
The medical questions on the application form are used for underwriting purposes rather than statistical purposes. If someone has a previous medical history then they could be premium loaded to reflect greater risk or even declined (this is most often dictated by their reassurance companies guidelines). Typically actuarial departments will not break down claims based on the actual answers on proposal forms of claimants. They work their math brains on the overall book of business comparing claims to premiums, work in profit margins to cover their costs and charge the lowest premium they can to outdo their competitors.
OT, but does anyone know the difference between Assurance and Insurance? I remember getting that question in my leaving cert many years ago. LOLS.
According to Irish Life Table No 15 (http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/births_d_m/current/irishlife.pdf)probablity the probability of a male age 45 surviving from age 45 to 65 is (l65/l45 = 84856/96116= 88.3% or 11.7% probablity of dying during this period. Probablity of a for a female aged 45 surving to 65 = 90532/97962 = 92.4%.
Probability of both male and female surviving to 65 = 92.4%*88.3%=81.6%. Probablility of at least one dying before age 65 = 18.4%.
Therefore statistically if you are both typical of the irish population then you have an 18.4% of collecting 300,000. If you are healthier than typical, then your chances are lower.
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