Irish Times data dashboard is interesting

Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess

Founder
Messages
52,214
www.irishtimes.com

Coronavirus - The Irish Times

www.irishtimes.com www.irishtimes.com

I was wondering where they got the figure of it being down from 30% to 15%.

4401


4402
 
If they have decided from just yesterday to only now start contact tracing without having tested it would also imply of worsening conditions that they are not saying
 
seamus m said:
If they have decided from just yesterday to only now start contact tracing without having tested it would also imply of worsening conditions that they are not saying
Click to expand...

Or it could just as easily imply that the number of infections/average number of contacts per case is dropping which is allowing the staff to expand their criteria. Really just depends on your outlook on the situation I guess.
 
elacsaplau said:
As said on another thread, the numbers are strange and there are many on-point comments in this thread. So just to add,

1. It's hard to comment on the shape of the curve with incomplete data

2. Regarding the decrease in the rate of growth, is the following not what's happening (not actual figures - just to illustrate the concept) given the ceiling in the number of cases processed?

DayOpening New TotalIncrease
x1,0002501,250
25%​
x+11,2502501,500
20%​
X+21,5002501,750
17%​
x+31,7502502,000
14%​
x+42,0002502,250
13%​
x+52,2502502,500
11%​
x+62,5002502,750
10%​
Click to expand...

Yes - but the concern (and what is being seen in US and UK) is an exponential growth - so if (to use your sample numbers), new cases remained static at 250 absolute, it would be seen as a success. The danger is that it doubles every 2 or 3 days (which is what happened in Italy and now happening in US). That doubling effect is what overwhelms A&E - steady numbers can at least be predicted and managed
 
elacsaplau said:
EmmDee,

My example was simply in relation to Brendan's comment - which is a fair representation of the messaging.
Click to expand...

I understand. And my comment was to highlight why a reducing percentage even with a static absolute number is seen as a positive thing in the messaging
 
Eireog007 said:
Or it could just as easily imply that the number of infections/average number of contacts per case is dropping which is allowing the staff to expand their criteria. Really just depends on your outlook on the situation I guess.
Click to expand...

Yep, mid-March they were looking at an average of 20 contacts per case, that dropped to 3 by the end of the month.
 
What constitutes a contact .I presume it's someone they have spent 15 minutes with and given they were expecting to be testing up over 5000 cases per day by now and are only doing less than a third of that they are prob overstaffed at minute
 
Folks

If there is a thread on stats, and someone starts talking about PPE, please do not respond. Report it as being off topic.

You are wasting your time and the moderators' time by responding. Your response is going to be deleted.

It is very difficult to have serious discussions if people insist on taking every thread off topic.

Brendan
 
Breakdown of Irish figures by demographic, ICU and fatalities.
Noticeable spike in admittance to ICU for over 45s, and noticeable spike in fatalities for over 55s.
I think it would be helpful if they provided a more granular breakdown for 65+ e.g. versus 80+

original


www.thejournal.ie

Harris announces new supports for nursing homes after 40 clusters identified across the country

Figures correct as of midnight on Wednesday were released this morning by the Health Protection Surveillance Centre.
www.thejournal.ie www.thejournal.ie
 
Hi Odyssey

That is very interesting.

In my own age group of 55-64, there were 6 deaths out of 537 cases.

So including underlying conditions, the death rate is about 1%.

Presumably there is a lag between confirming a case and dying.

So the 1% might well rise.

We won't know the true death rate for some months until those affected have either recovered or died.

Brendan
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top