Ireland to move to Level 3 from 1st December

Purple said:
We target resources at younger people in preference to older people all the time. Men are as likely to die of Prostate Cancer as women are to die of Breast Cancer but we spend vastly more on Breast cancer screening. That's nothing to do with gender (despite what some men think). It is to do with the fact that the men who die of Prostate Cancer usually do so in their 80's and 90's whereas women start dying of breast cancer in their 30'd and 40's. If you need a transplant age is one of the selecting factors. In a world of finite resources things have to be prioritised. I'm not suggesting that we callously cast aside old people who are sick but lets not pretend that the life of a chronically ill 85 year old is the same as a healthy 10 year old.
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Prostate deaths are in the 50 to 80 bracket Purple, its becoming more prevalent now in men in their 40s too.

But I take your point
 
demoivre said:
If my number is incorrect show the correct calculation. Of course I was generous in including people with pre existing conditions in my calculation. I suspect that to calculate the probability of a healthy person in Ireland dying of Covid would require use of the exponential function on the calculator, because of the amount of zeros !
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It appears you calculated the risk of dying from COVID-19 based on the number of deaths to that point over the entire population. That's not how you calculate risk! Use that method back in March and you'd get 0.0000002039.
 
After hearing today's figures I have a feeling that after Christmas day and subsequent weekend we might be revisting level 5 for the remainder of 2020 and probably all of January 2021.
I'm again not wishing for this but looking at Europe now it just feels inevitable.
The joy of having vaccines has really disappeared quickly.
 
odyssey06 said:
The vulnerable can't be protected if everyone 'gets on with it', if by that you mean, ignoring and lifting all restrictions.
It's fantasy stuff, it is not a slogan of practicable policy.

If you can point me to a study that shows people without symptoms are not infectious, please cite.
People without symptoms can transmit covid, the split between pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic is unclear.
Pre-symptomatic & asymptomatic people shed viral load.

www.ecdc.europa.eu

Factsheet on COVID-19

Factsheet on the COVID-19 pathogen, surveillance, clinical features, epidemiology, transmission, case management, and public health control measures.
www.ecdc.europa.eu www.ecdc.europa.eu
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Of course the vulnerable can be protected. I see it every day of the week with very elderly neighbours and relatives. It's not rocket science and it can be done with respect and dignity. I visit a 90 year old neighbour a few days a week and we have no problem keeping our distance and doing the basics right. My parents in law are in their eighties and have managed fine since March, again by doing the basics right.

www.nature.com

Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China - Nature Communications

Large-scale population screening can provide insights to levels of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, the authors report a citywide screening of ~10,000,000 residents of Wuhan and show that SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence was very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.
www.nature.com www.nature.com

I've already read that ECDC article. I think you should reread it if you believe that it proves asymptomatic transmission.

"Similar viral loads in asymptomatic versus symptomatic cases have been reported, indicating the potential of virus transmission from asymptomatic patients "

"Asymptomatic transmission (i.e. when the infector has no symptoms throughout the course of the disease), is difficult to quantify. Available data, mainly derived from observational studies, vary in quality and seem to be prone to publication bias [34,43]. Mathematical modelling studies (not peer-reviewed) have suggested that asymptomatic individuals might be major drivers for the growth of the COVID-19 pandemic [44,45]. "

There are no documented cases of asymptomatic transmission of Covid and that's from WHO.
 
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odyssey06 said:
There is no evidence that PCR testing in Ireland is creating some sort of false 'casedemic'.
The level of variability in in our daily positive rate demonstrates this.

The Cambridge student situation is explained here and no it doesn't mean what you suggest it does:
Cambridge Covid-19 test results don’t mean PCR tests are inaccurate - Full Fact
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Leo said:
It appears you calculated the risk of dying from COVID-19 based on the number of deaths to that point over the entire population. That's not how you calculate risk! Use that method back in March and you'd get 0.0000002039.
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You are absolutely correct and I was wrong in my conclusion. I calculated the proportion of people in the population that have died from Covid at a point in time. Happy to correct that.

Of course it doesn't detract from the main point which is that Covid, in the main , kills old, frail people with comorbidities.
 
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Paul O Mahoney said:
After hearing today's figures I have a feeling that after Christmas day and subsequent weekend we might be revisting level 5 for the remainder of 2020 and probably all of January 2021.
I'm again not wishing for this but looking at Europe now it just feels inevitable.
The joy of having vaccines has really disappeared quickly.
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Sweet music to Bezo's ears as we continue to destroy small businesses. I personally know of 6 that will never reopen. Sad times.
 
demoivre said:
Of course the vulnerable can be protected. I see it every day of the week with very elderly neighbours and relatives. It's not rocket science and it can be done with respect and dignity. I visit a 90 year old neighbour a few days a week and we have no problem keeping our distance and doing the basics right. My parents in law are in their eighties and have managed fine since March, again by doing the basics right.

I've already read that ECDC article. I think you should reread it if you believe that it proves asymptomatic transmission. There are no documented cases of asymptomatic transmission and that's from WHO.
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You reference people living in their own homes and seem to extrapolate that by doing the basics right, the same could work in care settings?
How do you keep your distance from someone who needs personal care?
What about when the vulnerable need to venture out of their homes for essential services, medical appointments, or require treatment.
To call that out as "of course the vulnerable can be protected" just demonstrates how little you have considered what it actually means.
It is just an empty slogan, it is not a practicable policy

The ECDC article says:
Similar viral loads in asymptomatic versus symptomatic cases have been reported, indicating the potential of virus transmission from asymptomatic patients... Pre-symptomatic transmission (i.e. when the infector develops symptoms after transmitting the virus to another person) has been reported.

It may turn out that asymptomatic are not drivers of transmission, but we don't have enough certainty to make policy decisions on that basis.
But really asymptomatic is a red herring. Because you have obviously ignored my phrasing of "people without symptoms" which is really what is relevant.
People without symptoms can transmit the virus - whether that is asymptomatic and\or presymptomatic changes nothing from a public policy perspective.

"People with symptoms absolutely need to quarantine"
From a public policy perspective, without legally enforced quarantine measures, this is not a practicable measure.
It's just an excuse for wanting to "get on with life", trying to pin the responsibility on other people. Another empty slogan.

You want no effective restrictions on anyone, anyone carrying the disease could be out and about "getting on with life", infecting those around them...
And you think the vulnerable could be protected in such a society?
Absurd.
 
demoivre said:
Of course it doesn't detract from the main point which is that Covid, in the main , kills old, frail people with comorbidities.
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Yes, in the main, but how many of those elderly have been robbed of 10 or 20 years life with their loved ones? Also, death isn't the only outcome here:

Figures on how many people are afflicted by so-called Long Covid are still emerging, but the number was estimated in a recent study at about one in 10 survivors aged under 50, and effects range from organ damage to neurological damage, profound exhaustion and shortness of breath.
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demoivre said:
Sweet music to Bezo's ears as we continue to destroy small businesses. I personally know of 6 that will never reopen. Sad times.
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Depends on your point of view, personally I think a persons life is far more important than profits.
Additionally we live in a global free market where competitors compete and the better one survives.
The pandemic has been hard on small businesses but its been hard on everyone.
 
The National Public Health Emergency Team has recommended to Government that the period of relaxed Covid-19 restrictions be shortened to the end of the year as virus cases rise, the Taoiseach has said.
Speaking on RTÉ's Six One, Micheál Martin said: "The anticipated period of going from tomorrow to the 6th of January would be shortened."
He said the measures being recommended would involve the hospitality sector as well as visits between households being reduced from three to one.
www.rte.ie

Govt considering new restrictions from 28 December

Government ministers are likely to look at bringing forward the tightening of Covid-19 restrictions to 28, 29 or 30 December.
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie
 
odyssey06 said:
The National Public Health Emergency Team has recommended to Government that the period of relaxed Covid-19 restrictions be shortened to the end of the year as virus cases rise, the Taoiseach has said.
Speaking on RTÉ's Six One, Micheál Martin said: "The anticipated period of going from tomorrow to the 6th of January would be shortened."
He said the measures being recommended would involve the hospitality sector as well as visits between households being reduced from three to one.
www.rte.ie

Govt considering new restrictions from 28 December

Government ministers are likely to look at bringing forward the tightening of Covid-19 restrictions to 28, 29 or 30 December.
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie
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I've been saying this for weeks and on this thread. The only surprise for me is that we are still on Level 3. 484 Covid infections in the past 24 hours and an R rate of between 1.20 and 1.30. The situation is not improving.

Yet we are the best performing country of the EU regarding Covid.
 
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Situation is deteriorating on all fronts aside from numbers in ICU which seem to be holding steady. Many people have already changed or cancelled their Christmas Day plans to spend with elderly parents or grannies. But there are plenty others criss crossing the country to carry on their traditional Christmas visits after putting them off for months.

I do hope the cabinet takes decisive action today. This third wave is right here, right now, it won’t pause just because it is Christmas.

I know what I would do but I am not in a bad financial position. All adults in my house are still working for employers who have behaved perfectly throughout the pandemic. Our income is steady. We have no relatives that we need to be with right now, we can all wait for another few months until the vaccine rolls out. So of course I am in favour of a hard lockdown today.

If I were relying on hospitality remaining open for my income or to keep my business afloat then I might have a different view. I would not want to be around the cabinet table today. Especially when they can predict the future deaths and case numbers based on people’s contact numbers.
 
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