Investing in Eastern Europe

MortgageMate

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Just wondering where people are investing their money.
It seems to me like the majority are buying property in Bulgaria. Would i be right in saying that?

What are people's views on other countries such as Poland & Slovakia?
 
hi there.

I have put a deposit on a flat in Warsaw as the capital growth is very good (roughly 20%pa). The Polish economy is doing well and i think it will be a good long term investment. A lot of people compare Poland to Spain 20years ago interms of its size and EU investment.

The only issue with Poland is the mortgage market is undeveloped and i hear that getting a mortgage there is very difficult.

Personally I don't like Bulgaria as an investment. Too much oversupply and lack of a resale market. Has anyone ever sold an apartment there?

Personally I would rather invest in up and coming areas that locals buy into than tourist spots as there is an easier exit strategy to sell on at a later date.
 
I definitely would NOT worry that the Polish mortgage market is underdeveloped. This, from my way of thinking, is a plus point indeed!

Put it this way. If you can get in now and buy for cash or finance your purchase from Ireland then you are well ahead of the game.

When the mortgage market in Poland develops, as it inevitably must, and the local populus have access to proper streams of finance then you are on the pigs back. Property prices will probably (though not inevitably) rise as more potential local buyers can finance their purchase through mortgages.

I live in Romania and the last 2 years have been astounding in terms of the availability of credit. There is still along way to go, not least legislatively, but there are huge leaps being made. The Romanian government still hangs onto out-dated laws which forces the banking community to assess local borrowers in respect of their salaries as opposed to allowing them to borrow against their assets but these laws are crumbling and I'd expect the same to be true in Poland.

Definitely hang-on in there! The important thing is to buy a property which you can re-sell to the locals. That's the crux of the issue and it's where Bulgaria falls down as presented to the Irish investor.

Bulgaria has become a 'dream' location purely through slick marketing in Ireland. The reality is that what's being sold to the Irish investor is unsaleable on the local market. That's the rock upon which it all perishes. If the locals can't afford to buy it off you then stay away. Simple as that.

Likewise, if you are buying in Poland then make sure it's in an up-and-coming district. If the locals are driving the market then you won't go wrong.

If you are in the enviable position that you don't have to raise a mortgage on the local market then why worry? Eventually the locals will be able to raise that mortgage and you will in all likelihood profit from their increased buying power.
 
I would suggest that while a sizeable number of people are buying property in Bulgaria, very little of it constitutes investment, i.e. property that will give a reasonable return over a 7 to 10 year period. In fact, anyone buying some of the overhyped garbage on the Black Sea coast or in the mountains is almost sure to lose money; they are paying in some cases up to four times the market value, and there is no local demand even at the real price. In addition, the market is driven by multiple layers of agency fees, with up to 15% and sometimes more of the price constituting agency fees, on top of the already inflated prices.

Investment in Central and Eastern Europe is mostly in Hungary and Poland; you pays your money and you takes your choice! Hungary has settled down to become a stable market following a rush of not always sensible purchasing by foreigners (Irish/English & Spanish mostly), and good value is to be had in good residential areas in and around Budapest in particular. The city seems set to grow further with the inevitable drift from rural farming to city working, and an addition very substantial pent-up market of adults living with parents should enhance the demographics over the next 5 to 10 years as increasing salaries and lower interest rates allow them to move out and buy places of their own. Recent hardline stance by the government seems set to turn the economy around, and the market has read these signals well, contrary to the prophesies of the doomsayers. At the end of the day, the capital is one of Europe´s finest cities, and most investors are now competing with local buyers in a sane market. Looks positive.

In Poland, returning funds from emigrant workers are stirring up the market in a few places, and as with Hungary the economy seems set to grow steadily if the government were to be led by some visionary politicians -- do the current two qualify? If this issue can be overcome, Poland also looks like not a bad bet, my own preference is for Krakow with its strong tourist economy and good local demand. Avoid anywhere in the Silesia area, where rationalisation of the coalmining industry has dumped tens of thousands on to the meagre social assistance and created an almost third world economy in this area. Don´t even think about buying around here, no matter how cheap it seems!

East Germany is attracting a lot of funds, but its a dangerous market for many reasons. A falling population (the government is effectively paying women to have children in order to try to correct this trend), and a drift to the west part of the country, coupled with horrendous problems with title dating back to pre-communist times, makes the former East Germany a place to avoid. This also includes west Berlin, and indeed much of Berlin unless you are well clued in on local nuances.

The Czech Republic is still ok, but few bargains to be had. A sizeable minority of investors are hitting Slovakia, mostly Bratislava and some of the ski areas, neither of which have great prospects. The best bet here is small commercial units close to the big development being bulit by Ballymore Homes on the former City landbank in downtown Bratislava, but these are scarce and hard to find.

Riga is not bad, but a lot of money from Irish investors has gone to cheap apartments in old communist blocks, which offer poor long term prospects. Good downtown stuff is expensive -- you will do better in Budapest for less money, and with better prospects.

Very little money going to the gem of them all -- Romania. Full of potential, avoid Bucharest and stick to Constanta, Cluj or smaller cities. Good value in land and sites along the Black Sea coast. Big players like McAnthony Realty are now moving into Romania, so look forward to a repeat of Bulgarian experience of seaside apartments at inflated prices, probably with "rental guarantees". Canny investors can still make good returns there, but not from the big guys.

That´s the limit of my expertise on eastern Europe, hope it was of help.
 
You keep telling them Auto but no one will ever believe you about Romania..sorry to say!

Meanwhile I just made friends with a great Irish guy from the mid-lands who owns a taxi firm out here of all things!!! Made me laugh! He also is having some good experiences on the investment front but can't convince his friends at home that it's not the dark side of the moon.

Same story here. It's very frustrating but maybe all to the good at the end of the day.
 
Don´t worry about it Ancutza!

As I have said many times, a fool and his money...

I have spent the last few days chilling out in Spain in bright sunshine and 18 degrees -- had to slap on the factor today and yeaterday to avoid the redfaced look. (Think I´ll stay for a while more, I hear its dull and dreary back home!) Bulgaria may be "the new Spain", but you wouldn´t go out in t-shirt and shorts in Varna this week!

Romania will attract only the smart money for the next few months. The dumb money will follow when the big companies work their magic and generate some guaranteed rental three-card trickery. I predict a surge of interest in Romania in about six months when McA get their marketing machine into gear, but it will be in all the wrong areas. Watch this space!
 
At 27m2 this place is really small! For the money, away from the coast and in a good city, I'd expect to get up to 50m2 in a new-build.

On the coast perhaps the price isn't all that outrageous but you'd have to negotiate. Depends on it's position relative to the beach.

If you could rent it for, say, 150 Euros a week from the start of May to the end of August (really the limits of the season) then you'd have a return of around 6% gross. You'd also have no problem renting it out over Christmas and New Year, perhaps even Easter. That's the kind of rental I'd be expecting from the locals. Your main market will be Bucharest. You might do better from foriegners.

I'd also say, looking at the pictures, that this is the show apartment. I don't think you're going to get it furnished to that standard for the money.

However, since I'm in the furniture manufacturing business, I can say that even at retail prices you'd do it up real, real nice for 2,500 - 3,000 Euro.

If it's not air-conditioned then you'd also have to fit that as it gets really muggy in Romania in the Summer months. Count on around 500 - 700 Euros for a 9,000btu unit including fitting.

It's the sort of thing that you'd have to take a trip out to look at it to decide.

You'd also have to see title on the land etc. and get a good specialist property lawyer to look at it for you which shouldn't cost more than a couple of hundred euro.
 
Auto I have enjoyed reading your excellent and well thought out posts.
However i am a little puzzled by what you say about rumania. .that buying in or around cities like cluj in rumania are a good buy.
In previous posts you mentioned the pitfalls of buying in bulgaria apart from sofia....granted the black sea apts are a bad investment but what about the bulgarian cities, similiar to cluj and constanta in rumania.
Granted if one could buy cheap properties from locals, one could sit back and await cap. appreciation.
Is it that the properties around cluj and constanta are so cheap to begin with or do they have great cap apprec. potential.
Rumania has very low wages so i can`t imagine them rising very quickly and the weather can`t be any better than bulgaria.
Surely there isn`t any oil left...
 
Thanks Ancutza for your very quick response. I was really just following on from Auto's comment so had a quick look to see whats out there.

I've never been to Romania & most definitely am not the type to buy without checking it all out properly.

I will pm you if I'm seriously thinking of taking this further.
 
Bang on the money Sunrock. With some the so-called differences are a reason to invest in one country over the other..Fine if you are in a possition to take the hit if it goes pear shaped.

I say look at West German and Belgian cities. A more conservative investment but if you definitely need something that must work it wont let you down over the medium term. Will probably do better than the wild east even. Especially if you do your homework in Germany (and not necessarily Berlin). Great yields but state of lease can dictate price.

ECB interest rates in a couple of years will have an adverse effect in a lot of Eastern Europe as too many of the investors buyers are people who are exposed to this. By this I mean they are people buying who borrowed equity on their homes in Ireland expecting to sell within a couple of years. There are 'too many' inexperinced small investors exposed to this as they were lured by cheap properties in such places. ECB Interest rate increases may very well dictate when they sell, rather than an increasing market. Same for UK investors. Very few big players are investing their own money in such places. Even though there will be names dropped on such forums. Call them up yourself and see for yourself. They are still going for the usual places. They may offer products in more risky locations but thats not their own money.

If you insist on eastern Europe, Poland and Bratislava has some good opportunities, I am told, but I couldn’t say, as I have not looked into it. I have an astute colleague that says he done well in these locations. What the future holds may transpire differently.

Dont overlook more obvious locations in the search for the next big thing.
 
Auto I have enjoyed reading your excellent and well thought out posts.
However i am a little puzzled by what you say about rumania. .that buying in or around cities like cluj in rumania are a good buy.
In previous posts you mentioned the pitfalls of buying in bulgaria apart from sofia....granted the black sea apts are a bad investment but what about the bulgarian cities, similiar to cluj and constanta in rumania.
Granted if one could buy cheap properties from locals, one could sit back and await cap. appreciation.
Is it that the properties around cluj and constanta are so cheap to begin with or do they have great cap apprec. potential.
Rumania has very low wages so i can`t imagine them rising very quickly and the weather can`t be any better than bulgaria.
Surely there isn`t any oil left...

The truth is that you can make money form property almost anywhere, if you buy the right property at the right price. However you can give yourself a head start if you go to good locations, particularly places where there will be buyers and renters for your properties, hence my preference for Cluj and Constanta.

These cities are growing and vibrant, unlike many of Bulgaria´s cities where populations are dropping. Don´t ever forget also that Bulgaria is starting from a very low base; the economy was completely on the floor less than seven years asgo with the collapse of the Lev and the central bank (caused by the giant pyramid scheme that defrauded almost everyone in the country of their savings with promises of "free money" -- echoes of the current "rental guarantee" scam on the coast perhaps; makes you wonder where the seed money for the big developments came from, maybe there were a small number of winners!!).

While Romania has low wages, they are rising all the time. In addition, the tax reforms of a couple of years ago have encouraged more people to come into the tax net;a lot of people earn much more than the official record shows.

There is a sizeable number of people in Romania who are doing very well however, and they are buying property all the time. This has reached ridiculous heights in and around Bucharest, with almost every property at a premium, but in other areas there is still lots of potential. The ambition of many Romanians is to get out of old tower blocks and have a house on its own plot, and good building plots are well sought after. In addition, commercial sites or land with commercial potential (as long as it is intravillan, or within the town boundary) can be a very good buy if you do some local research and buy well. I like Cluj and Constanta particularly; the former because it is a good solid city with a thriving local economy, and Constanta because of the sheer potential of it -- it has one of the largest ports in Europe, it is beside the main seaside resorts and the Danube Delta region, and it is attracting inward investment at an incredible rate of knots. In the past year, Carrefour, Metro, and a couple of other big players in the supermarket and DIY field have opened new outlets, and are doing incredible business. There is plenty of money in Constanta and Cluj, despite rural poverty just down the road from both.

Oh, and there is still a lot of oil left in Romania, they are still pumping it in Ploeist and on the outskirts of Bucharest.
 
Hi from a Britisher in Hungary,

We bought our 8 acres with small house, now extended, 4 years ago and its value has increased 10 fold (ok, spent about 15G on it). We are 4 mls from zalasprings.com with Ryanair flights to London 13 mls (30 min from door to door). It is a beautiful environment with sailing, riding, fishing, golf and parking space when shopping.

In this area around us you can still find holiday/residential homes with a min land of 1 acre for around 12,000 GBP. Spend a bit on improvement and voila under 25,000 you can have a second home, not far from home. Surely, it is a good investment.

Rental properties are in demand throughout the year as there are 3 famous mineral spas within 8 miles, + hunting season. Holiday properties are rented at a min 20 euro/person/night.

Living costs: 500 GBP/month for a couple, glass of wine 10p, pint of beer 50p, restaurant bill for 2 around 8-10 GBP, weekly shopping 50-60 GBP. Entrance to local spa with cold/hot swimming pools, sauna, steam is 4 pounds/person.
If interested, email me: davidhoward@hungary.org, can send you pix and friendly advice.
David
 
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