Interest rates 2006

W

wexford

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any ideas as to what will happen to interest rates in 2006? Anyone think the ECB will raise them again?
 
Its likely there will be another .25% increase in the Spring sometime but after that who knows. At the moment the ECB have said they dont expect to issue a series of increases but 1 more looks likely.
 
I would be factoring in:

25 bps in March
50 bps in July

Possible 25 bps in November.
 
Well actually while I dont often forecast here my forecast in July 2003 was that rates woulf not change for at least 2 years. When i was forecsating in July 2005, I would have said they will be up in six months.

This is December 2005: They will be up by 100 bps within 18 months.

As for the 'guesswork' - all that was keeping the rates down was a benign German and French economy leaving negative real rates. Once inflation thereatened, they were only going one way - up.

Also in explaining house prices - 101 econmics is overlooked - supply has been tampered with by dozy Planners and dozy DoE. But when these matters are discussed, people ridicule them as opposed to hearing whats being said.
 
WizardDr said:
This is December 2005: They will be up by 100 bps within 18 months.
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You mean the ECB rate will be 3.25%?
Also in explaining house prices - 101 econmics is overlooked - supply has been tampered with by dozy Planners and dozy DoE. But when these matters are discussed, people ridicule them as opposed to hearing whats being said.
Click to expand...
What people are you referring to?
 
I dont think we have had a serious debate here as to why a tax haven economy has the dearest price of houses in Europe.

No real pressure has resulted from the fact that we still have less houses per thousand than any other european country. This was the nub of the issue. Planners became bureaucratic.

We now have the notion of income on lettings being negative after costs and yet many feel the rise will continue and continue.
 
Dont think german economy could take 100bps.
.5 is max for me.
Remember Trichet said not a series of increases.
That said 1% increase would be helpful in the long term for Irish market as it would inject a badly needed note of realism and would help somewhat in getting speculators out of market and might give us a soft landing?
 
C'mon folks, I know its Christmas and all that but surely you might as well be asking will we get a good summer next year????? Anybody with any idea better than pure guesswork could make a huge killing on the bondmarket. Otherwìse, it makes for a nice high stool argument but that's about all! Bah humbug, and a Happy Christmas and prosperous 2006 to one and all!!!
 
Out of interest, what would generally be considered an "average" rate? I know rates are set given the economic conditions at the time, so they will always change, but when economies are ticking over nicely, is something like 4% the right balance?
 
I dont think we have had a serious debate here as to why a tax haven economy has the dearest price of houses in Europe.
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Is it because with Monaco being on the Cote d'Azur, the climate is one of the best in Europe?
 
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