How Healthy is the Chinese Economy Really?

S

Superman

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There is a rather good geopolitical thinktank which can be subscribed to - Stratfor.com. (Not sure if anyone else subscribes) An interesting article on China was sent yesterday:

Moderator note: Replicated article removed - please don't post copyright material in full. Post a link or a synposis instead. See the posting guidelines:


 
I didn't read that but my answer would be that we will see after the Olympics are over.
 
In answer to your question, not healthy at all. It is a communist state, and as such can never, never have a 'healthy' market economy, despite what the pro-China cheerleaders say.
 
Apologies to the moderators - unfortunately it seems the articles already sent out cannot be accessed without signing up (and probably paying) to the website.
 
Chinese Economy

Links to the same story (Fitch sez that chinas banks have bad loans around the same value as Chinas foreign reserves) are also to be found here and elsewhere

[broken link removed]

Officially its US$150-200BN based on disclosed data.

Unofficially it COULD be $700BN or even up to $911BN according to Ernst and Young....but they withdrew that allegation under pressure from the Chinese Government last month

The external reserves are around $800BN

The issue has been glossed over in China to date because of strong economic growth.
 
Banking system collapse quite possible
Civil and political upheaval quite likely
Rampant inflation inside economy (circa 10%)
Population is aging quickly ,population will be declining fast before it becomes the economic superpower some claim.
Currency being pegged is artificially keeping its exports cheap etc
 
bearishbull said:
Civil and political upheaval quite likely
Click to expand...
This has already been happening for several years even if little of it gets reported widely.
 
Gee, I thought I'd have a new story for you guys....

I'm impressed by yere knowledge.
 
I was commenting on the fact that to a number of the regular posters on this forum this report seems like old news.

(it was a compliment).
 
For anyone still interested, Jim Jubak at MSN money has written a good article on this exact issue. His theory is that the recent and forthcoming offerings of IPOs of Chinese banks to financial institutions like Goldman Sachs is a means of importing discipline. In this way, they can fight the inflation caused by bad moneylending practices without hiking interest rates too much and risking wrecking their economy.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/ChinaBanksAwaitDisciplineFromAbroad.aspx
 
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