the fact we have the youngest FTB's may indicate a panic to "get on the ladder" as "prices will only go higher if i wait to buy later". I wouldnt see it as a particularly positive thing in todays market .ClubMan said:I heard it mentioned somewhere recently that Ireland has the lowest average age for first time property buyers which might indicate that things are not as bleak as some people might assume?
I'd doubt there'd be any logic as to where the downward spiral will stop, just as there isn't any logic to the upward one we're currently experiencing.If so, prices won't go below, say, today's values ???
Squonk said:Does this mean that if there's a crash here, then prices will only fall back to a level where first time buyers can get back into the market? If so, prices won't go below, say, today's values ???
Squonk said:Does this mean that if there's a crash here, then prices will only fall back to a level where first time buyers can get back into the market? If so, prices won't go below, say, today's values ???
What I meant was that for all the talk of FTBs supposedly being squeezed out of the market it seems that many of them still manage to get in. Obviously if some are not being prudent about the amount of debt that they incur in doing so that may be a "bad thing" (for them at least) but that's their risk to take.bearishbull said:the fact we have the youngest FTB's may indicate a panic to "get on the ladder" as "prices will only go higher if i wait to buy later". I wouldnt see it as a particularly positive thing in todays market .
The person who has found their ideal property, can afford the mortgage repayments and is not worried about selling in the short/medium term?conor_mc said:After all, who wants to take a chance and buy a house only to see it well into negative equity a year later?
ClubMan said:I heard it mentioned somewhere recently that Ireland has the lowest average age for first time property buyers which might indicate that things are not as bleak as some people might assume?
Howitzer said:I mentioned the age thing in a number of threads but I would agree with this arising out of a final panic of buyers. Long term this is actually a really bad thing for the market. The baby boom bubble in the population reached it's peak a couple of years ago. If you believe that in a sustainable market a certain amount of new buyers are required each year, the fact that the average age is still decreasing probably means that the market is effectively "borrowing" buyers who should really be buying in the next 5 years. Together with the baby boom peak having been reached this would mean a decrease in the number of potential buyers in the years ahead.
That was a really bad explanation, if anyone understands what I'm saying and can translate into proper english feel free.
The person who has found their ideal property, can afford the mortgage repayments and is not worried about selling in the short/medium term?
Nobody I know personally as it happens.conor_mc said:The opposite of what you suggest though is the person who buys now in fear of never getting on the property ladder, who can't really afford it so they borrow deposits from parents, the Credit Union, take out 100% mortages, etc. and who see their squishy little 2-bed apartment as a "starter home"..... sound familiar?
Anybody dreaming of a nightmare scenario should start with a break up of the Euro and Irish interest rates being forced up very sharply.
This plus the dual mortgage tax relief, which caused frenzied buying and temporarily inflated house prices.tyoung said:The key to the UK property bust in the late 80's was interest rates.
tyoung said:The key to the UK property bust in the late 80's was interest rates. Back then The Bank of England was not independent and interest rates were decided by the Channcellor. In general interest rates were kept low prior to an election and then bumped up afterwards to control the boom. Such a boom had occured in the late 80's. However this was not enough.
In the late 80's Nigel lawson changed monetary policy. He decided to focus on the exchange rate and so interest rates were adjusted so that the pound would shadow the old German mark. The idea was that as GB became a low inflation country it would have similarly low interest rates to Germany.
Unfortunately after reunification, for political reasons Germany allowed East Germans to exchange their east german marks for western marks. They went on a massive consumer binge which forced the Bundesbank to raise interest rates dramatically. Gb followed,interest rates went up and up and the property market collapsed. The speculators saw it was politically unteneable and sold the pound short.
On Black Monday the game was up. GB dropped out of the ERM, the pound dropped dramatically and of course George Soros made a billion pounds in a day!
The thing is that the speculators saved the property market in the UK. Interest rates also fell sharply. I think it would have been much worse if GB had stayed in the ERM.
Interest rates are also the key to the Irish Market. Anybody dreaming of a nightmare scenario should start with a break up of the Euro and Irish interest rates being forced up very sharply.
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