Good problem - stop savings?

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When does it hit the bottom?
 
andyB20 said:
Thanks @Gordon Gekko

I would not want to do a big, single investment/transfer into anything. That just seems like point-in-time gambling. I was more thinking of averaging-in future cash.
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Read the Of Dollars and Data blog. He writes loads about dollar cost averaging and how it doesn't beat lump sum investment, even when the lump sum is a lower risk strategy.

But if investing a large lump sum in one go makes you nervous, it's fine to drip it in but know that there's a trade off of lower returns in the long term for that extra level of comfort in the short term.

Steven
http://www.bluewaterfp.ie (www.bluewaterfp.ie)
 
SBarrett said:
When does it hit the bottom?
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I have been investing directly in the UK stock market since the 1980's. You cannot call the top or the bottom but you can observe trends and study fundamentals.
I sold last April and made a substantial profit. I got it partly wrong, if I had stayed in, I would have made a much larger profit. However I didn't make a loss.
I have a large sum of money sitting in my Davy account at the moment. Incurring costs and nil dividends coming my way. At least I had the sense to leave it in Sterling and not convert back to Euro when I sold last April.
I am tracking some of my favourite shares at the moment. They are still not near the price I am willing to pay but they may get close. Unfortunately, then the greed sets in. "Will I buy now or hold out for them to fall further". You can miss the boat by doing this but you might not lose any money.
 
There is a slight pick up in the Ftse as I write. Maybe the bottom feeders or the shorters covering their positions. A profit is a profit after all.
Or maybe a dead cat bounce?

Dow Futures down 2.40% forecast. This may lead to a further drop in the Ftse as the US market opens today.
 

That is some amount of jargon in one post. No offence, but a 2.4% drop in the dow opening is not newsworthy.

Bottom feeders and dead cat bounce?? Did I miss a market crash this morning or something?
 
Sunny said:
No offence, but a 2.4% drop in the dow opening is not newsworthy.
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No. What I said was...."Dow Futures down 2.40% forecast. This may lead to a further drop in the Ftse as the US market opens today."

But you knew that.....
 
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Thanks everyone for inputs, and for taking time to read. Sincere apologies to the moderators for accidentally creating an investment thread in the wrong venue..

@noproblem - thanks for the advice on will, I do need to do that..
@Gordon Gekko - thanks for challenging my perspectives! My risk mindset probably does need re-wiring.
@SBarrett - Great link! I think you understand mindset..
@Brendan Burgess - it's a really interesting angle re trading-up. I travel too much though, so can barely keep up with keeping current place in-order so no appetite for a larger place at the moment.

The thread has confirmed re pension, made me re-think on mortgage (will clear it). Need another thread in investment forum after I've parsed some things and gone beyond an idiot first post.

/A
 

Hey RedOnion. You’ve given me some good advice over the years. Can I ask what you mean when you say above that paying off the mortgage changes ones views on risk? I’m on a journey towards that goal myself so interested in what is behind that sentiment.
 
SoylentGreen said:
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I know you missed yesterday's sell off.....did you notice anything today?
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You mean the Dow or the Ftse down less than 2% . Well excuse me while I go and buy my supply of canned goods and make sure I still have my codes to my bitcoin wallet.

Do you want to know how much % you lost with your money sitting in a stockbroker account doing nothing for the past few months???

Talking about bottom feeders and dead cat bounce after a few hours of a mild market sell off shows that you are deluding yourself that you are investing smartly. Have you gone all in on the back of this massive sell off or are you waiting for more carnage on the street.

And by the way, I know markets will be impacted by this virus. I also know the reaction will be overdone and I know the markets will recover. I wouldn't have a clue though when or how much will it will fall or what will happen. I dont care either. If you want to go defensive with your portfolio and equity allocation then go defensive but dont do it on the back of events with the intention of selling high and buying low. You are not a day trader and you will get burnt.
 

Would you still call this a mild market sell off? I think the DOW is now down 10% since Monday. Nothing mild about that.
Thankfully I sold my Irish airline stock last week anticipating something like this. I see that share price has dropped by €3.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Why? That’s also trying to time the market (or “point-in-time gambling” to use your term). On the basis that the long-term trend of markets is upwards, then statistically it makes sense to invest earlier rather than later.
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But.....maybe wait until the current correction settles down...….investing earlier last week would have cost you a lot of money.
 
SoylentGreen said:
I sold last April and made a substantial profit. I got it partly wrong, if I had stayed in, I would have made a much larger profit. However I didn't make a loss.
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Well with the cash in your pocket you can sit back and wait a bit longer to see how things pan out. It looks as if investors are scrambling now to take their profits before there is nothing left for them.
 
Of course there is a reaction but we are still far off anything close to panic. Markets have seen this before. SARS, Swine Flu, Foot and Mouth, Ebola etc etc. They have recovered quickly every single time. The economic risk is that Governments have to start taking huge steps to try and contain the virus. Travel bans, business closures etc etc will all a huge impact but it is temporary. Maybe the world is ending but I haven't seen any evidence yet.....
 
The world will get back to business ..... after a while. Uncertainty will stop consumption and increase savings. Earnings will suffer and costs increase. If job growth falters, recession fears will accelerate. Smart doctors will ultimately develop a vaccine. The vulnerability of global supply chains and over exposure to Asian manufacturing will cause a major rethink, regardless of the costs of production.

Lessons will be learned and opportunities will present themselves. Great companies will ultimately endure and this turmoil presents buying windows at better prices.

A correction was overdue. CV19, scary and distressing as it is .....merely accelerated that natural process.
 
SBarrett said:
When does it hit the bottom?
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Well you could have sold by now and saved yourself a lot of anguish rather than hanging in for 10 years as has been advised here. That would have been the first step.
The next step is to try and anticipate "When does it hit the bottom". You won't get this right, but you might be able to pick up some shares that have been oversold with all your spare cash.
 
Sunny said:
Of course there is a reaction but we are still far off anything close to panic
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I am not so sure about your views. I have read your posts above. It looks to me as if their is panic selling out there. Investors trying to salvage the profits that they have built up. Good to see that some posters above, who have been unkindly called "mugs" by some, took their profits by calling what they saw as the top of the market. They haven't lost.
 

No, this is based on people saying that they have had money sitting in a stockbrokers account earning nothing (actually costing them fees) since last year and now claiming they are right because of the fall. Want to know how much equities increased in the past 6 months and they missed out on compared to the fall of the past week?

I have no problem going defensive on equities in my existing portfolio allocation if I think there is a significant change in the economic cycle but I would never stop investing in equities on a regular basis. If I think this virus will lead to world recession, then I will have to look again but I see no firm evidence yet.
 
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