If it's publically available information in the media, why wouldn't the current price already reflect that?
If you said you had seen a top secret report which proved we were about to run out of oil then yes I would say invest in oil.
But why would you expect to profit from information that we all already have?
Investing in oil is a very bad idea extremely volatile no income better options available.
Hi Rikt,
The point Marc is making is still valid.
You are saying that because the sanctions are not active yet they have not reflected on the price of Oil, but that makes no sense when you think about it. If something is going to have an effect on the price of Oil and we know that to be true, then the price of Oil would reflect that now, and not wait.
For example, if we find out tomorrow that the supply of Oil will be cut by 50% on the 1st of January 2012 then the price of Oil will reflect that tomorrow, it wont wait till the 1st of January 2012 to reflect it.
See what I mean ?
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Hi,
Its impossible to tell if the price will increase or not, nobody knows.... There may be an agreement for Saudi Arabia to increase output when the sanctions come into affect for example, so no change to supply.
You said in your original post that you had some money to "invest" but what you have suggested doing is to Speculate.
Rikt, You said you are trying to learn about investing in your original post, I would suggest you get your hands on a few books before you put your hard earned cash on the line.
Have a read of A Random Walk Down Wall Street and also The Intelligent Investor.
Mr Graham would be very cross with you for suggesting speculating on the price of Oil.
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