Go for broke on the Lotto

there are a few ways to cut the odds,never take 6 consecutive numbers or even 5,never take 6 even numbers same applies to odd numbers , as it would be very unusual to have 6 consecutive numbers ,you do get the odd time when 6 even or odd numbers do come up but few and far between this happens,most draws seem to favour 3 odd 3 even or 4 2 either way
 
started shutting down certain Lotto machines. 'Lotto computer looking for patterns . . ' doesn't mean anything as any line has the same chance as any other line.
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The sort of 'patterns' I mean would be a high volume of sequential selections from a single Lotto terminal that might indicate somebody trying to buy the pot -- exactly the case where you admit they've shut down terminals!


ainya, this is where I agree with michaelm. Any combination of numbers has the same probability of coming up as any other combination (ignoring mechanical biases in the Lotto machines.). Consecutive numbers come up less often because there are more valid combinations with non-consecutive numbers -- this shouldn't affect your selection! The Lotto 'system' I use is I suspect the same as DrM's.
 

Doing this won't improve your odds even slightly.
 
dicey_reilly said:
I'm guessing - don't play, don't lose!
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No need to guess, it's the only system which guarantees no loss!
(also guarantees no win, but given the odds it's a successful system).

I've also seen systems which work on the select one ball method ( or [broken link removed]).

In theory it seems ok (at a very quick first glance), but only when you don't investigate it. A little thought and you can see that the risks are just crazy!

[I'll give a few details as I know a few out there will like looking at the theory. Please, don't look at this as some gambling advice, I'm saying it as I've heard it and found it amusing to analyse. I'm sharing it as I assume others might do the same. The potential losses are exponentially more than the potential gains!!!]

Having a quick look through the Lotto page above the "prize limits" seem to have ended this being a runner. Maximum payouts as a total (€2million max, split between all winners) mean that even if the pool is large enough to keep the bet going, the payout may not match the total paid out to date.
The seem a little more open to abuse regarding the working as a syndicate (it's illegal to do, so huge risks involved) so it could possibly be done there, but again, the losses you could make mean the profits would be wiped out and leave anyone involved hit hard in the pocket!


Basic idea.....

Pick one number (I've heard of people picking the number which hadn't come up in the longest time, but as all balls have an equal odds of coming up in independant draws this seems a bit of a waste of effort).

Back it using a "select one number game"
(two listed above, I'll go with Lotto54321 for the calculations as the 4/1 odds [bet one, win five - seems to be 4-1] are lower than the 11/2 of PP [I'd assume that means bet one, win six fifty (11/2 odds plus stake back)]. Whatever the odds the same idea holds. It just means you'll stack up your losses a lot faster as you keep "chasing" them.

Then you must "chase" the loss (probably the biggest mistake of most gamblers/investors).
If you bet €1 as your first bet, in order to keep your (potential) profit static you must increase your bet by 25% (odds of 4/1 so a 25% increase in stake gives back the loss to date) [to make the system work (even in theory) you'd have to increase by more than this so your potential profit grows as your timeframe of investment..... I shudder to use that word in this context but I really am using it in the loosest terms.... grows. For the sake of a few sample figures lets say we go with 1.5 as the iteration.

So, we now bet €1 on the first weekend draw, €1.50 (€1*1.5) on the wednesday draw, €2.25 (€1.50*1.5) on the next... and so on.

Each time we increase the bet we increase the (again, I shudder calling this profit but for the sake of argument) profit slightly. A more agressive approach (double each bet or 2.5 times the previous bet) would give a higher profit faster, but mean a bigger starting pot/fund would be needed.

A sample short table of Bet, Cost, Win and Profit can easily be drawn up in Excel...
First column bet. Start with 1 and for the rest of this column make it the previous cell*1.5.
Second column cost. This is equal to bet for the first cell and equal to bet+previous cost for all additional cells.
Third column win. Bet*5 for the Lotto54321 odds.
Fourth column profit. Win - cost.
(Did try and throw in the table for illustration but formatting didn't quite work out)

You can run it for as far as you'd wish to consider.

So, after four weeks (2 draws per week) just less than €50 has been bet (in total). If you get lucky on the fourth week (8th draw) you may win €36 profit, or else you (have to) keep chasing and the potential costs get quick fast.

After two months it's over €1300 (potential profit €877) and after three months it's €33666 (potential profit €22447). You can imagine just how bad it could get (not to mention the difficulty in placing bets this large and the legal side of it).

It's basically the same idea as someone walking into Vegas and betting bigger and bigger (technically not able to do it anymore with table limits) on red until finally they finish up...... the martingale system... plenty of broke gamblers around to prove it doesn't work.

Just wanted to throw it up incase anyone had an interest in thinking about it, I know it passed a few days in maths lectures for myself and some friends not too long ago.
 
Satanta said:
No need to guess, it's the only system which guarantees no loss!
(also guarantees no win, but given the odds it's a successful system).
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Yep, that's my system. A slight twist is the Lotto Syndicate in work, which I don't participate in, but most people do. Sometimes they tease me that when they win, I'll be one of the few unfortunates left running the show. Of course if everyone else walks out "when" they win, I'll be able to name my price to stay! So either way I win.
 
In my case, it's just plain old meanness — or so my wife says!

She makes up for it whenever she gets the chance...
 
well i like a bit of a flutter each week and 20 euro gives me something to look forward to, and i have the 3 draws covered i get a few euros now and then and 20 euros a week is not going to break the bank, i know the old adage live in hope and die in despair comes to mind, but what of it as long as i get my wee thrill on wed and sat night
 
You should save the €20 a week for a year and spend it all in one go on the lotto. It will improve your odds slightly.

I got someone to do that once but they couldn't bring themselves to "waste" all that money on the lotto so they went on a holiday instead.
 


Actually - betting it all in one go does not increase your odds. It decreases your probable overall return as you are, in effect, betting against yourself.

It would be like backing Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd and Arsenal each to win the Premiership. You are guaranteed to have at least 3 losing bets. On the other hand - if you back each team once on consecutive seasons - there is a possibility that you will have 2, 3 or 4 winning bets.

Of course you may have no winning bet but betting against yourself is for the people who back all 6 greyhounds in a race just to have a winning ticket. Occasionally you'll win more than your stake but in the long run - you will lose.

Keep punting!

Dicey
 
dicey_reilly said:
Actually - betting it all in one go does not increase your odds. It decreases your probable overall return as you are, in effect, betting against yourself.
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You're wrong you know. In the Premiership there can only one winner, whereas in the lotto there can be several winners (but you share the prize money). So you never compete with yourself.

Bit busy right now but if I get a chance later I'll post the mathematics to support this.
 

Hi 305

I'm open to persuasion but putting it simply - if you select the numbers

1.2.3.4.5.6. and 7.8.9.10.11.12

as your 2 selections in the same draw - you cannot win a decent prize (match 6, match 5+bonus, match 5, match 4+ bonus or even match 4 numbers) with both selections as you have 'bet against yourself' i.e. a decent win of 4 numbers with or without the bonus number on one line rules out the possibility of any win on the other line.

If you enter the numbers in separate draws then each set of numbers can (notionally) win every prize.

If there is a flaw in this logic - please let me know......
 
room305 said:
Doing this won't improve your odds even slightly.
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Hi again 305

I agree with your post on odds improvement as it this popular misconception always makes me laugh. Consider this poker hand:

K♥, 10♠, 8♥, 5♣, 2♣.

Many poker players will swear they were dealt this hand 3 or 4 times in their last weekend home game but it is statistically as common as

A♥, K♥, Q♥, J♥, 10♥.

Similarly 1,2,3,4,5,6, is just as likely to win the lottery jackpot as 4,11,16,28,33,41.

(I love this stuff!)

Cheers
Dicey
 
Chances of winning jackpot with 1 combination in 1 draw = 1/5,245,786
Chances of winning jackpot with 2 combinations in 1 draw = 2/5,245,786
Chances of winning jackpot with 2 combinations in 2 draws = 2/5,245,786

***

Looking at the above intuitively it would seem there is no difference. However, over a large number of games you can improve your odds by playing all your combinations in one draw. It is slightly paradoxical but simple to understand logically.

If I bought 5,245,786 different combinations for 1 draw then what are my chances of winning the jackpot? A nailed on 100%.

Now if I bought 5,245,786 different combinations for 5,245,786 draws then what are my chances of winning the jackpot? 100%? No, about 63% as it turns out.

Don't have time to go into it more but if I remember correctly it is called the paradox of N trials.

So the more draws you play the greater you improve your odds by playing all combinations in one draw rather than spreading the combinations across multiple draws.
 
I agree with your post on odds improvement as it this popular misconception always makes me laugh. Consider this poker hand:

K♥, 10♠, 8♥, 5♣, 2♣.

Many poker players will swear they were dealt this hand 3 or 4 times in their last weekend home game but it is statistically as common as

A♥, K♥, Q♥, J♥, 10♥.

years ago i used to play poker all weekend and believe it or not in 3 consecutive hands i filled into 3 straights.
on sat night last 2 hands i filled in to 678910 hearts' then 34567 diamonds
first deal on sunday morning' i had 10jqka clubs dealt cold it was draw poker we played' and no i did not get a fortune from the hands i played maybe 40 or 50 pounds as it was then at the most
 
I was reading about that syndicate recently. 25 of them put in close to a million to cover all eventualities and the prize was 4 million. they won it but 3 others also won in that draw. So instead of getting a return of 120k on their 40k they only got something like 2k or 3k each.
Some members of that syndicat have won that apartment competition that the Evening Herald have ran the last two years.
They spent 25k on Evening Heralds and got enough entries to cover all the lowest bids.
 
just wondering how many millionaires have been created by the lotto since it started
 
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