George Lee's Boom-Discuss here

bearishbull

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I have to say i was quite surprised with the programme,he said everything i have been feeling and saying here on askaboutmoney but i didnt expect to hear it on mainstream media in such a clear and frankly frigtening way!

i think this programme will have a similar impact to the rip-off republic programmes of Eddie hobbes and i think the writtings on the wall for this economy unless we drastically change course
 
I didn't see the programme, but apparently you can discuss it with George hisself right [broken link removed], from 1 to 2pm tomorrow Friday.
 
it was a great bit of tv,the first half of show was so so positive and the second half was so so negative,suprised me, i expected the rose tinted view that we usually get through media here.
 
Nice to to hear an indepentent view on the current state of play - no vested interest here. Gave it to us right betweeen the eyes. How many more left out there who believe we can continue to spew out nothing but new houses in this ecomomy. As Ray Grehan said himself -" if we continue at this we'll all end up with 5 or 6 houses". Property investors may have good reason to be shaking in their cots tonight. Wonder what Mr ECB man has in store for us next week.
 
Yeah good stuff except forthe constantly throbing musical back drop that never stopped from start to finish, did you not notice that. it was giving me a headache. Good music in it, but it was a struggle sometimes to hear what was being said I thought, it was like straining to hear your friends in a pub over the blaring music.
 
A very sobering bit of TV - George as always a rock of good sense. Was it a coincidence that the programme coincided with the issuing of the first SSIA cheques? Anyhow it's official - the Celtic Tiger is dead and our only hope is to market Ireland as a "creative" economy. Maybe that will be expanded upon tomorrow.

As most of us suspected, he confirmed that in the past five years two thirds of all new jobs for men were in construction and two thirds of all new jobs for women were in the Public Service.
 
Some very good points were raised on the cost of R&D in this country even compared to a supposed high cost economy like Germany. The property prices are making it more expensive to do business here, as people seek a return on their highly valued assets, thus driving up rental costs per sq. foot.

Peadar
 
The programme was an autopsy for the Celtic Tiger. Lee presented the unvarnished facts; falling competitiveness, falling productivity, falling manufacturing employment, growing indebtedness and an over reliance on the construction and public sectors. Lee made it clear that the last few years were not a continuation of the early Tiger, but something else, something far less sustainable. The banks and politicians have continued to milk the tiger myth, while stuffing their respective swag bags, only occasionally stopping to yell ‘doom monger’ at anyone who has questioned their actions.
 
The program was nothing new for me.

George, BTW, has been <insert someting important sounding here> in RTE for years and years and years and only made one notable program in ALL that time .

And he COMPLAINS about PRODUCTIVITY the cheeky bugger !!!!!!!!!!
 
It will be interesting to see the reaction from 2 quarters to this show. Firstly will there be any change in the numbers signing up for new units and secondly how long will it take the property bulls to produce another report,survey etc to say everyone has full faith in property.

Well done George!
 
Should probably have called the programme 'Gloom'! I agree that there are plenty of negatives in the economy. Yappy/folksy economists (such as Lee and Williams) seem to revel in this. As he admitted they didn't predict the tiger, but they are doing their best to predict the bust, and, of course, they will be right one day (but its taking a long long time for them to do the 'I told you so' dance, which must really irritate them, as well as undermine their credibility to properly diagnose the economy, or indeed, predict direction of interest rates for 2004/5 - which is a 50% bet). Personally, I dont think this programme was particularly enlightening, and was simply applying some basic undergraduate economics to some economic indicators, with a few interviews thrown in. A bit lazy really! Macroeconomics is a spoofers game!

Incidentally, there seems to be an unending stream of reports and initiatives since 2000, but not much else, exhorting us to move up the 'value added chain' and become a 'niche knowledge economy'. Some political accountability for this would be nice. All we produce are property billionaires and not knowledge billionaires a la Bill Gates, and our economic infrastructure still remains below par.

Also, strange how we have moved away again from last years fashionable argument that, as a mature economy, we will become more of a services economy (a bit like the US and UK).
 
Askar said:
Should probably have called the programme 'Gloom'! I agree that there are plenty of negatives in the economy. Yappy/folksy economists (such as Lee and Williams) seem to revel in this.

If I recall correctly McWilliams has been calling the top of the property market since 2000. Property prices have risen 100% and more since then so even a 30 or 40 % fall in property prices will have seen him get it manifestly wrong imo. If McWilliams , Lee and the like were really any good at analysing markets they would be making seven figure salaries in The City !
 
Macroeconomics is not a spoofers game, though there are many out there that would like to perpetuate this fallacy. Lee spelt out whats happening in the global economy, the seismic shifts in wealth and power, and the challenges to the consumerist societies of the West these shifts will generate over the coming generation. Knowledge is power and it suites many to keep the the lumpen masses ignorant of the real issues that will effect their lives.
 
I watched it last night. If we think the FTB are feeling under pressure to buy, imagine what the developers feel, when trying to sell their "Select", "Luxury", "Spacious" way of life. The FTB should not buy anymore. The developers are quaking in their boots.
 
bearishbull said:
i think this programme will have a similar impact to the rip-off republic programmes of Eddie hobbes
To be honest I think that's extremely wishful thinking. This programme will simply not translate into the "water-cooler conversation".

The subject is unpalatable for some people, but incomprehensible for most.
 
redo said:
The developers are quaking in their boots.
I doubt it. As long as there are still people queuing (and there are) to buy houses I don't see any end to the madness...
 
Duplex,

Dont agree. It is a spoofers game. The principles of macroeconomics and the variables underlying the theories are not clearly understood. For eg expansionary fiscal contraction (one of the recognised pillars of the celtic tiger) did not fit into a standard Keynes theory of how to expand the economy. Change the variables and the outcomes can change. IMHO without empirical research and a clear understanding of the assumptions underlying that research, you cannot state conclusions/hypothesis in a meaningful way. Taking a load of variables (as Lee did) and making subjective broad conclusions (albeit consensus conclusions of our folksy economists), is not proof of anything, nor is it necessarily empowering the masses. In fact, it is doing just what you are accusing me of doing - potentially perpetuating a fallacy. IMHO we only have fairly superficial understandings of economics (a bit like doctors in the middle ages). Since my MSc in economics is in microeconomics I am possibly a bit biased, but I prefer my economics based on game theory and tested in real world conditions. I really have no time for DIY man and all the other conveniant classifications used to lecture 'the masses' on a particular economic point of view.