C
Chamar
Guest
askalot said:
I was thinking the very same thing a couple of days ago.
askalot said:The sale of that semi-d may well be the moment we will look back on in two years time and go..."ah, so that's when the bubble started to rupture!"
roryodonnell said:Prices should have stablised about 18-24 months ago. But the demand out there from investors is pushing it up. The most recent purchases will have no increase in value for 5-7 years. It may increase marginally up until the summer, but after that it will remain flat. These "investors" will get nervious over the xmas period and may decide to sell then. So, the storm will come early next year, say March 16th 2007 when the ECB puts the base rates up to 3.5. (5 year fixed = 5.8 - 6.5, variable = 5.25 - 6. or just over 3000pm on a 500k mortgage @5.5 over 25 years).
askalot said:The party is slowly coming to an end. The US Federal Reserve raised rates (again) bringing them to 4.75pc and they may not have yet reached their peak. There now seems to be an expectation that the ECB will raise rates quicker than was thought at the beginning of the year with the next increase coming in May. [FONT=Verdana, Arial]We could end the year with an ECB rate of 3.25pc, up from 2pc at the beginning of December 2005.[/FONT] This would bring mortgage rates to over 4pc and add around €200 to the monthly cost of a €300,000 mortgage.
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial]I think the big slowdown is coming over the hill. It's probably only 15 months away which means that anybody buying now should be aware that they are buying at the top of the market and so they really, really need to love the property![/FONT]
askalot said:[FONT=Verdana, Arial]...[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial]We could end the year with an ECB rate of 3.25pc, up from 2pc at the beginning of December 2005.[/FONT] This would bring mortgage rates to over 4pc and add around €200 to the monthly cost of a €300,000 mortgage. [FONT=Verdana, Arial][/FONT]
Saw that, and it wasn't even in a very desirable area. The article in the Examiner even questioned whether this would be our broom closet.madisona said:converted garage extension in Cork (with its own seperate enterance ) that recently went for €240,000
madisona said:In Holland during first part of the 17th century, especially in 1636-37..... etc.
madisona said:In Holland during first part of the 17th century, especially in 1636-37.
demand for tulip bulbs reached such a peak that enormous prices were charged for a single bulb.
By 1636, tulips were traded on the stock exchanges of numerous Dutch towns and cities. This encouraged trading in tulips by all members of society, with many people selling or trading their other possessions in order to speculate in the tulip market. Some speculators made large profits as a result.
Some traders sold tulip bulbs that had only just been planted or those they intended to plant (in effect, tulip futures contracts). This phenomenon was dubbed windhandel, or "wind trade",
In February 1637 tulip traders could no longer get inflated prices for their bulbs, and they began to sell. The bubble burst. People began to suspect that the demand for tulips could not last, and as this spread a panic developed. Some were left holding contracts to purchase tulips at prices now ten times greater than those on the open market, while others found themselves in possession of bulbs now worth a fraction of the price they had paid. Thousands of Dutch, including businessmen and dignitaries, were financially ruined.
Attempts were made to resolve the situation to the satisfaction of all parties, but these were unsuccessful. Ultimately, individuals were stuck with the bulbs they held at the end of the crash—no court would enforce payment of a contract, since judges regarded the debts as contracted through gambling, and thus not enforceable in law.
Neffa said:What may "catch" the market as it falls will be a function of how many cash buyers are sitting waiting to buy. As renting becomes more common, the renters should be in a good position to buy and potentially stabilise the market.
bearishbull said:obviously not.but we are talking about now and the future.for last few years the numbers havent stacked up.ten years ago i was doin my junior cert so i cant remember what rent was like compared to mortgages
as for my points on renting versus buying obviously things will change and this anomaly wont last in medium/long term which raises the question how will it change? theres only 2 ways it can happen, rents rise substantially or prices fall ,i cant see rents rising much with the massive building happening-80k a year for ten more years=another 800k houses! "raise the rents!!"
i am talking about at this moment and untill the change happens it does not make financial sense to buy,even if your house rises ten percent in year after buying this only covers stamp duty and the extra mortgage repayments above rent payments.then inflation is at 3% so take 3% away from any increase in value and the difference between renting and mortgage is around 2-3% of value of home so every year as it stands your houses has to rise by more than 6% in order to "make a profit".
walk2dewater said:Sorry that's not how true busts play out. The bottom is reached when no one wants to buy, when everyone you meet seems to say renting is smarter than buying, when the last property magazine disappears from the shelf, when the property supplements are replaced by some other fad, when people are so sick of property that they vow "never again", in other words, when there is a complete washout of bullish sentiment and annual housing completions are next to zero. There will be very very few cash buyers waiting to buy at the bottom, EVEN if it makes economic sense to buy. There are several books on the subject here's one:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470821523/qid=1143710155/sr=1-2/ref=sr_1_2_2/202-0255429-7416632
This is the psychology of boom and bust, the emotional cycle of greed and fear. Today's price action (up) is PURELY sentiment based, no basis in economics whatsoever.
conor_mc said:The eircom effect....???
To be honest, I disagree that we'll see those depths of despair, purely by virtue of the fact that the demographics of the country will maintain a certain level of demand, even if it's only in the second-hand market for the most part.
The real risk to the market is the amateur investor who gets spooked. There will still be plenty of people waiting in the wings to make a smart, long-term, sustainable investment when this thing bottoms out.
walk2dewater said:Sorry that's not how true busts play out. The bottom is reached when no one wants to buy, when everyone you meet seems to say renting is smarter than buying, when the last property magazine disappears from the shelf, when the property supplements are replaced by some other fad, when people are so sick of property that they vow "never again", in other words, when there is a complete washout of bullish sentiment and annual housing completions are next to zero. There will be very very few cash buyers waiting to buy at the bottom, EVEN if it makes economic sense to buy. There are several books on the subject here's one:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/exec/obidos/ASIN/0470821523/qid=1143710155/sr=1-2/ref=sr_1_2_2/202-0255429-7416632
This is the psychology of boom and bust, the emotional cycle of greed and fear. Today's price action (up) is PURELY sentiment based, no basis in economics whatsoever.
If it was a 'textbook' crash (and that's a big If) prices would fall for a while, then there would be one or two rebounds (during which the bulls announce "it was only a blip - we're on the way back up") but then during these rebounds investors use this time to try to escape with their shirts (they've just been thru quite a scare) and this then triggers the free-fall which lasts until a full correction has occoured.jpd said:It will look like free-fall for awhile - quite exciting to watch from the sidelines but not if you are caught up in it.
soma said:If it was a 'textbook' crash (and that's a big If) prices would fall for a while, then there would be one or two rebounds (during which the bulls announce "it was only a blip - we're on the way back up") but then during these rebounds investors use this time to try to escape with their shirts (they've just been thru quite a scare) and this then triggers the free-fall which lasts until a full correction has occoured.
As a real-world example, my Dad (a broker in N.Y.) saw the dot-bomb coming and got entirely out of tech stocks and avoided the initial carnage. But then he mis-timed the bottom of the market (one of the small rebounds I mentioned above) and tried to buy 'low'. Little did he know the stocks had another 50% to fall.. he got badly burned. At the moment he is a fully paid-up subsriber to the global property bubble theory & has just sold up all the family houses in N.Y. except the main residence. He has told me that if I try to buy anything in Ireland he'd be on the next plane over to shoot me first *lol* :-D
soma said:If it was a 'textbook' crash (and that's a big If) prices would fall for a while, then there would be one or two rebounds (during which the bulls announce "it was only a blip - we're on the way back up") but then during these rebounds investors use this time to try to escape with their shirts (they've just been thru quite a scare) and this then triggers the free-fall which lasts until a full correction has occoured.
I can just see it - 10 years down the line there'll be agents in Poland, Bulgaria, Cape Verde and Croatia selling cheap property in Ireland.walk2dewater said:But ultimately the future is bright, i.e. an abundance of CHEAP property in Ireland.
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