kane3000 said:Imagine it is February 21 2010, what do you think the current property market will be like - what do you think the major headlines will have been in terms of Irish property since 2006 ?
Neffa said:Hmmm....
€1m average price means at least €125-€150K average salaries in 5 years time. I think not.
Theo said:Property has a track record of doubling on average every 7-10 years. This track record is 2 centuries old. It includes downturns, recessions, wars and boom times.
So Nakashima, a Tokyo city government employee who was then 36, took out a loan for almost the entire $400,000 price of a cramped four-bedroom apartment. With property values rising at double-digit rates, he would easily earn back the loan and then some when he decided to sell.
Or so he thought. Not long after he bought the apartment, Japan's property market collapsed. Today, the apartment is worth half what he paid. He said he would like to move closer to the city but cannot: The sale price would not cover the $300,000 he still owes the bank.
jhegarty said:you forgot about the 50 year mortgage they introduced in 2009...
bearishbull said:if you rent for cheaper and invest the money saved in a pension you get immediately 42% extra if your on higher rate of tax.
people havent been warning for ten years only around 6 and just because people are warning for a long time doesnt mean it wont happen, in fact the longer economists warn about a situation the more likely it is to happen as it brings us closer to the inevitable downward movement that all asset markets experience at some time as these markets are cyclical.Loki said:Does anybody know which "experts" have been saying there will be a crash for any time longer than 5 years?
We all read the reports from 10 years ago that were predicting price crashes I am just wondering are these peopel still saying the same thing that they were wrong about consectutively for just 5 years.
A lot of people here are making the assumption that people must buy property at some point. No talk about the fact that some people simply may never own now. If you want to look at examples of where this happened look at all the georgian buildings owned in Dublin. Very few are owned by individuals or used as houses. The only reason I can see is that that kind of living had to change. If you compare dublin density etc to other European cities nobody elses seems to live with our density. I reckon this is what will change and not a drop in prices. The big problem with many "experts" is they look at the financial records and less at the social element or the engineering elements of society.
Many people quote huge drops yet in many cases that means houses prices would drop below construction costs. It is possible but not likely in the certain places such as those close to Dublin due to a constant demand. If employement dries up more country people will have to move to Dublin. No matter what Dublin will always be the main area of employment in this country.
Loki said:Does anybody know which "experts" have been saying there will be a crash for any time longer than 5 years?
We all read the reports from 10 years ago that were predicting price crashes I am just wondering are these peopel still saying the same thing that they were wrong about consectutively for just 5 years.
A lot of people here are making the assumption that people must buy property at some point. No talk about the fact that some people simply may never own now. If you want to look at examples of where this happened look at all the georgian buildings owned in Dublin. Very few are owned by individuals or used as houses. The only reason I can see is that that kind of living had to change. If you compare dublin density etc to other European cities nobody elses seems to live with our density. I reckon this is what will change and not a drop in prices. The big problem with many "experts" is they look at the financial records and less at the social element or the engineering elements of society.
Many people quote huge drops yet in many cases that means houses prices would drop below construction costs. It is possible but not likely in the certain places such as those close to Dublin due to a constant demand. If employement dries up more country people will have to move to Dublin. No matter what Dublin will always be the main area of employment in this country.
bearishbull said:people havent been warning for ten years only around 6 and just because people are warning for a long time doesnt mean it wont happen, in fact the longer economists warn about a situation the more likely it is to happen as it brings us closer to the inevitable downward movement that all asset markets experience at some time as these markets are cyclical.
construction costs are only 30% of the price for most properties,land is the largest and most significant cost element.
i dont know what your point is regarding georgian houses but it doesnt make much sense and i think "experts" have taken all aspects of the scenario into consideration when judging the realisticness of house price valuations.
Sorry you are wrong there I remember reading lots about house price warning and it was 10 years ago. It has certainly going on longer than 6. I only asked for the last 5 as I thought it would be easier for many people. I never claimed it won't happen justbearishbull said:people havent been warning for ten years only around 6 and just because people are warning for a long time doesnt mean it wont happen, in fact the longer economists warn about a situation the more likely it is to happen as it brings us closer to the inevitable downward movement that all asset markets experience at some time as these markets are cyclical.
I suggest you try to get a house built and you will find construction will run a lot higher than 30%. I think if you gauge it by mass estates built by a developer you may find construction costs go dwon to 30%. The problem is that to build a house you need many other services which will push up the cost to build a house.bearishbull said:construction costs are only 30% of the price for most properties,land is the largest and most significant cost element.
Georgian houses were too expensive for people to live in, in the manner they did. The form of lifestyle changed not the property as it will and will always last longer than the social order. The same applies now the 3 bed semis are an unviable constatn currently in Dublin. A 3 bed semi close to the city will no longer house a family instead it will be split and sold seperately like what happened to georgian houses. It happened all around London. The demographic of this country will change to need mre singel dwellings. Financial "experts" tend to look at financial issues and don't normally think in human terms enough. PLanners/Engineers "experts" tend to not think the financial loan aspects out very well. The experts in my eyes tend to miss the full picture.bearishbull said:i dont know what your point is regarding georgian houses but it doesnt make much sense and i think "experts" have taken all aspects of the scenario into consideration when judging the realisticness of house price valuations.
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