Flight turbulence and climate change

AlbacoreA said:

"...Last year, scientists from the University of Reading in the UK reported that severe turbulence had risen by 55 per cent between 1979 and 2020 on a frequently used North Atlantic route. They attributed this increase to changes in high-altitude wind speeds caused by warmer air from carbon emissions..."

Flight Turbulence | Increasing turbulence: Why flights are facing more bumps in the sky

Turbulence in flight: Fasten your seat belts: Experts believe that climate change is expected to make air travel bumpier than ever for air travellers. Learn about turbulence and safety precautions

www.business-standard.com

If anyone's interested. Apologies if not.

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Sounds alot, but in fact 55% of a rare event is still a rare event. Its worth remembering that the tropics (Singapore) coincides the region with most cloud thermal energy and hence Singapore experiences lightening storms on average 1 every 2 days (most frequent in the world).

Its like the classic from IBEC : "do you know, its terrible, 40% of sick days occur on Monday and Friday"..followed by outrage by all concerned about lazy workers taking duvet days which butt up against the weekend.

Around 20 per year in the US according to one table in the report. Though the article seems to be describing a different route. Dunno what that is globally..

AlbacoreA said:

Around 20 per year in the US according to one table in the report. Though the article seems to be describing a different route. Dunno what that is globally..

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How many flights in the US per day?.

From memory, Ryanair is the 3rd largest airline by passenger volume in the world and has c.3000 flights per day. 1st and 2nd are US based. So conservatively I would guess 10,000 flights/day in US (not bothered to check)

=> 3,650,000 per annum and P=20/3,650,000 ~= 5ppm in US.

Wonder what is the equivalent for road deaths or, falling down the stairs, choaking, much higher I would guess?.

Don't shoot the messenger.

I was just trying to put numbers on the media articles which as usual are short on actual facts long on hype.

It's normal for the media to hype up things like cyclists or EVs (for example) for clicks regardless of how statistically insignificant.

Still good practice to keep the belt on where possible. That's the takeaway for me.

arbitron said:

You are sadly so right. I got a shock recently when I looked at my carbon footprint from flights alone. I've decided to cut travel by at least 50% for the rest of the year and hopefully by 80% by end of next year. I love travel and flying but it's just unconscionable.

The negative commentary and "jokes" around these things are really depressing, especially when it comes from parents/grandparents who should be fighting for a healthier future.

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Beef and Dairy farming is a bigger contributor to greenhouse gas emissions than travel. That is particularly the case in this country. The opportunity cost of beef and dairy farming is also a big factor in that growing trees instead sequesters carbon, though the altitude that planes emit their pollution makes it more harmful than low altitude pollution.

Travel broadens the mind and gives us skills that we wouldn't otherwise have. Cars have a very high economic and social value.

Given the choice of reducing my Beef and Dairy consumption by 50% or reducing my car journeys and flights by 50% I would certainly choose the former.

clinteastwood said:

How many flights in the US per day?.

From memory, Ryanair is the 3rd largest airline by passenger volume in the world and has c.3000 flights per day. 1st and 2nd are US based. So conservatively I would guess 10,000 flights/day in US (not bothered to check)

=> 3,650,000 per annum and P=20/3,650,000 ~= 5ppm in US.

Wonder what is the equivalent for road deaths or, falling down the stairs, choaking, much higher I would guess?.

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There are around 130,000 flights each day with around 20,000 in the air at any one time.

Professor Paul Williams, university of Redding does research specifically in to this.

A nice easy to read presentation from him.
https://www.icao.int/Meetings/greenairports/Documents/3. Paul Williams.pdf
- Interesting 5500 severe turbulence events in the US per year (This is 2017 I think ) There's a difference in severe turbulence, based off the force, and where someone is injured. But these are not all Clear Air Turbulence, CAT, just turbulence (So generally know about it, and most will have their seat belts on, risks of injury are far lower, but not a pleasant experience)

List of his departments publications:

Him being interviewed on BBC following an incident some years ago with specific discussion about the CAT + risk
TLDR - Low risk, but not zero. The technology exists to see it, but its expensive - maybe with more research could be made cheaper / more viable.

I was on a flight back in ~2000 that had some short bad turbulence, I'd estimate moderate (maybe moderate to severe) looking at some of the descriptions, some over head bins opened, one of the air stewards fell at the back, but don't believe was injured. It wasn't bad enough that it made me nervous flying, but bad enough I still remember it quite clearly 20+ years later. I would have kept my seat belt on back then anyway - but suspect seatbelt sign was on suggesting not CAT just normal turbulence.

I don't fly much but I remember a flight back in I assume late 80s during a big storm on a 737. Lots of trees came down around Ireland. It felt like we were in a elevator just dropping like a stone then going up. All the overhead bins where shaken open with bags falling. Quite violent. Very unsteady approach and very very hard landing. No one hurt as far as I remember. Maybe someone hit with a bag. Can't remember.

I've had the odd bumpy flight and hard landing since but nothing like that.

AlbacoreA said:

I don't fly much but I remember a flight back in I assume late 80s during a big storm on a 737. Lots of trees came down around Ireland. It felt like we were in a elevator just dropping like a stone then going up. All the overhead bins where shaken open with bags falling. Quite violent. Very unsteady approach and very very hard landing. No one hurt as far as I remember. Maybe someone hit with a bag. Can't remember.

I've had the odd bumpy flight and hard landing since but nothing like that.

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I've taken lots of flights. There was a period of about 7 years when I was taking 80-100 flights a year so I've probably been on around a thousand of them. The worst landing I was ever on was into Derry City airport in a 33 seater turboprop. We were thrown all over the sky. It was seriously frightening. I was sitting beside a former US Navy pilot. I said "that was a bad flight!". He replied, "No, any flight you walk away from is a good flight." He was one of those real cool mid-western guys who could have been a cowboy. I hated him.