Fine Gael Leader change

TarfHead said:

I'm in DubNE and can see little prospect of Tommy Broughan bringing in a second candidate (in a 3-seater). Killian Forde could do well, but the SF history can be used against him. Also, his power base is Donaghmede, which overlaps with Broughan.

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Will Broughan even get elected? DNE was a very close race last time with 5 candidates with similar 1st preferences seeking only 3 seats.

Broughan has lost the bulk of his support in the Coolock area due to his opposition to the Northside redevelopment project. Labour objections delayed this project and because of the collapse in the economy it wont be done now. Cost the area loads of jobs as well as the benefits of redevelopment. While this project is in the DNE area, it would also have served a lot of the DNC area. The Labour opposition to the plan is the significant local issue I referred to in my earlier post and has effectively made some of their potential candidates in DNC unelectable. I would have thought that this issue would have an even more serious effect on DNE candidates, especially Broughan, given that the project was in their constituency.

csirl said:

Will Broughan even get elected? DNE was a very close race last time with 5 candidates with similar 1st preferences seeking only 3 seats.

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True. Maybe he only made it last time based on his promise to, if in Government, deliver the LUAS and a third-level institution to the constituency . I kid you not !

FF had enough votes last time for 2 seats, yet Brady fell just short with Flanagan getting in on Sweeny's transfers. Flanagan ran a very energetic campaign in 2007, hard to know if he can repeat the trick this time. I remember seeing him, on the morning of the election, on the causeway road to the Bull Island, waving at the City bound traffic. Before that I wouldn't have rated his chances; after that, it wasn't a surprise that he made it.

FF could hold their seat. Brady is in the Senate, so he's still keen. Woods is a pensioner, several times over , so is unlikely to go again.

No PD in the field, Healy (GP) was wiped out at the local elections, so there's space there for a non-FF candidate who runs a clever campaign. Not SF though, can't see Larry O'Toole drawing much support in the leafier parts of Sutton and Howth.

There's a likely Labour seat in Carlow-Kilkenny I would have thought.

It will be interesting if they do put up a second candidate in Waterford, Limerick East, Wexford as difficult to see a second winning candidate in those constituencies. Willie Penrose should be able to bring a second candidate home.

Kerry North and South there's a chance but not much of a one.

TarfHead said:

True. Maybe he only made it last time based on his promise to, if in Government, deliver the LUAS and a third-level institution to the constituency . I kid you not !

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You might like to revisit my query on this claim again - see http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=1051941&postcount=64

Is this one of those things that if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it?

Complainer said:

You might like to revisit my query on this claim again - see http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=1051941&postcount=64

Is this one of those things that if you repeat it often enough, people will believe it?

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I repeat it because I believe it to be true based on my own recollection of a piece of campaign material that lingered in my hand for a short time in between it's journey from my letter box to the green bin.

If obtaining a scanned image of same document is the provenance you require to back up this recollection, and I am unable to produce same, then I must have made it up to throw mud at Deputy Broughan, as part of some nefarious FF/FG/SF/MRLP campaign ? Yeah ? That makes sense ? Cos in the Come On Down Super Giveaway Campaign of 2007, it is implausible that the Labour Party would have made such extravagant campaign promises ?

That site you linked to contains one piece of campaign documentation from 2007. So, that means he only ever printed one item ?

Any way, [/rant] . Back on message. LAB unlikely to gain a seat in DubNE at the next election and, based on what csirl posted, maybe at risk of not even holding on to what they have ?

Listening to James Reilly over the last few days, he comes across as another liabililty to FG

TarfHead said:

I repeat it because I believe it to be true based on my own recollection of a piece of campaign material that lingered in my hand for a short time in between it's journey from my letter box to the green bin.

If obtaining a scanned image of same document is the provenance you require to back up this recollection, and I am unable to produce same, then I must have made it up to throw mud at Deputy Broughan, as part of some nefarious FF/FG/SF/MRLP campaign ? Yeah ? That makes sense ? Cos in the Come On Down Super Giveaway Campaign of 2007, it is implausible that the Labour Party would have made such extravagant campaign promises ?

That site you linked to contains one piece of campaign documentation from 2007. So, that means he only ever printed one item ?

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The reason why I suspect this is untrue is because;

a) it is completely implausable
b) I can't find any sign or record of this claim in the press, or from the avid political followers on politics.ie (who generally open a thread every time a TD breaks wind.

Perhaps it didn't linger long enough in your hand.

Complainer said:

How many times does Gilmore have to unequivocally rule this out before people will listen?

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I have heard him rule it out but I have not heard if he specifically said he would rule it out even if Labour were the senior party. Maybe it would make no difference but I imagine there would be some temptation to be the senior partner in governement for the first time.

Shawady said:

I have heard him rule it out but I have not heard if he specifically said he would rule it out even if Labour were the senior party. Maybe it would make no difference but I imagine there would be some temptation to be the senior partner in governement for the first time.

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Listen to his interview from Weds this week, about 7:40 into the interview;

[broken link removed]

"[Deep sigh] The Labour Party position is crystal clear. We are not going into Govt with Fianna Fail after the next general election. We're not going to put Fianna Fail back into Govt in any shape or form after the next general election. And incidentally, the Labour Party is the only party that has categorically ruled out going into Govt with Fianna Fail after the next election".

Is there any ambiguity there? Why don't you ask FG about whether THEY will go into coalition with FF when Labour comes out as the largest party?

Complainer said:

..when Labour comes out as the largest party?

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Would you care to identify the constituencies you believe where LAB will gain seats ? And, at whose expense ?

TarfHead said:

Would you care to identify the constituencies you believe where LAB will gain seats ? And, at whose expense ?

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I wouldn't claim to have a national view, but they will certainly gain one, possibly two, and if the wind is behind them, maybe three in Dublin South. Eamonn Ryan is a gonner, the Seamus Brennan/George Lee seat is a gonner, and Kitt is at risk.

Complainer said:

I wouldn't claim to have a national view, but they will certainly gain one, possibly two, and if the wind is behind them, maybe three in Dublin South. Eamonn Ryan is a gonner, the Seamus Brennan/George Lee seat is a gonner, and Kitt is at risk.

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That's the piece I need explained to me - how can they gain sufficient seats to be the largest party in the next Dail ? And where will those seats be gained ?

The most obvious way is by gaining the seats lost by FF, but FG will be targetting those seats too and may have more established constituency organisations to support a second candidate.

And if Gilmore can't make that breakthrough, his position as party leader must be called into question.

TarfHead said:

That's the piece I need explained to me - how can they gain sufficient seats to be the largest party in the next Dail ? And where will those seats be gained ?

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See http://politicalreform.ie/2010/09/2...it-might-mean-in-constituency-terms/#more-997 for one analysis, based on the TV3 poll.

TarfHead said:

And if Gilmore can't make that breakthrough, his position as party leader must be called into question.

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Right so, he's led the party from 12% to 45%, so we should DEFINITELY start questioning his leadership ?????

I can't access that link from work.

And, yes, if he, or anyone, can't transform a poll rating of 35% into an electoral breakthrough, 'don't let the door hit you on the backside on your way out'.

Complainer said:

See http://politicalreform.ie/2010/09/2...it-might-mean-in-constituency-terms/#more-997 for one analysis, based on the TV3 poll.

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It's a good starting point for an analysis, but seeing labour on 57 seats (and I'll hold my hand up if proven wrong) indicates that we need a deeper analysis.

For me the starting point would be to go through the first preferences of each party in each constutuency from the last election.

You'd then need to apply a likely constituency specific swing.

You then need a rule of thumb on transfers.

I've done a detailed analysis (out of statistical interest) on Carlow/Kilkenny before.

In 2007 labour and FG won almost 40% of the vote and won one seat. FF and the greens won 55% and that gained them 4 seats!

If that's not crazy enough, in 2002 the constituency had only 4 seats on offer (due to having the sitting Ceann Comhairle) and FF took 3 of those 4 seats with 50% of the vote.





This is an extreme situation, but it does highlight a few things:

• The parochial nature of politics (the FF canndidates were spread perfectly geographically whilst transfers not alone did not occur between FG and Labour, they didn't transfer very well internally between FG or Labour candidates in different parts of the constituency)
• The profile of the candidates (maybe 35% of people want to vote for labour but 50% of these have never voted labour before, when they are presented with an unknown candidate they are less likely to vote for them)
• Vote management (In a 4 seater the maximum vote that will be counted is 80%, but could be as low as 70% due to lost transfers. FF know they will get their own vote and nothing else. If they have two equally matched candidates, they only need 30% of the vote to get two seats. They have form at getting this right. Labour do not have that kind of vote management experience).

So looking at that Millward-Browne analysis in respect of Carlow-KK,
1) I find it dubious that FF % falls from 45 to 26 whilst labout goes from 13% to 35% even based on the swing since last election
2) Even if FF were to fall to 26% they'd probably pick up 2 seats due to vote management and candidate profile

My overall prediction for what it's worth is:

FG: 60
FF: 50
Lab: 40

well that link shows questionable analysis as it shows a virtual elimination of "others" whereas in fact I think the next election will see a load of hospital type TDs.

It also shows 3 Labour TDs in Dublin South which is highly unlikely. Also as I've stated before vote management is not ingrained in Labour whereas FF and FG have years of experience of the black arts.

Labour would be better off running a maximum of 2 candidates unless there are specific geographical reasons for running a third. Labours maximum vote transfer is about 60% from party colleagues from recent local elections and that was in very rare cases, I would think from a quick look at the site i referred to above that the average would be about 40% which is nowhere near enough to 50 seats.

DerKaiser said:

It's a good starting point for an analysis, but seeing labour on 57 seats (and I'll hold my hand up if proven wrong) indicates that we need a deeper analysis.

For me the starting point would be to go through the first preferences of each party in each constutuency from the last election.

You'd then need to apply a likely constituency specific swing.

You then need a rule of thumb on transfers.

I've done a detailed analysis (out of statistical interest) on Carlow/Kilkenny before.

In 2007 labour and FG won almost 40% of the vote and won one seat. FF and the greens won 55% and that gained them 4 seats!

If that's not crazy enough, in 2002 the constituency had only 4 seats on offer (due to having the sitting Ceann Comhairle) and FF took 3 of those 4 seats with 50% of the vote.






This is an extreme situation, but it does highlight a few things:

• The parochial nature of politics (the FF canndidates were spread perfectly geographically whilst transfers not alone did not occur between FG and Labour, they didn't transfer very well internally between FG or Labour candidates in different parts of the constituency)
• The profile of the candidates (maybe 35% of people want to vote for labour but 50% of these have never voted labour before, when they are presented with an unknown candidate they are less likely to vote for them)
• Vote management (In a 4 seater the maximum vote that will be counted is 80%, but could be as low as 70% due to lost transfers. FF know they will get their own vote and nothing else. If they have two equally matched candidates, they only need 30% of the vote to get two seats. They have form at getting this right. Labour do not have that kind of vote management experience).

So looking at that Millward-Browne analysis in respect of Carlow-KK,
1) I find it dubious that FF % falls from 45 to 26 whilst labout goes from 13% to 35% even based on the swing since last election
2) Even if FF were to fall to 26% they'd probably pick up 2 seats due to vote management and candidate profile

My overall prediction for what it's worth is:

FG: 60
FF: 50
Lab: 40

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In the last local elections from 2009 FF had indeed fallen to 26% (ish) in both constituencies, Labour had 18% given the surge in Labour votes since then, whilst 35% is not going to happen they could overtake FF. Obviously vote management becomes key but you would presume that it would end up 2FG/2FF/1Lab but it wouldn't be unbelievable that the second FF would be under pressure from Labour.