Fine Gael Leader change

Shawady said:
Amazing to think that FG are at the same level as FF in the most recent poll.
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Indeed - Kenny is definitely holding them back. Though I'm not sure that any of the prospective alternatives would be a whole lot better. Watch them implode over the coming months in a series of heaves and recriminations.

It really is starting to look like a Labour-led Government next time round, either with FG as the junior partner, or possibly with the few Greens/Independents/Joe Higgins on side. It would be very difficult for many in FG to get the heads round being the junior partner. Shatter was almost apoplectic on the radio over the weekend.
 
Complainer said:
It really is starting to look like a Labour-led Government next time round, either with FG as the junior partner, or possibly with the few Greens/Independents/Joe Higgins on side.
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What about a Labour-led government with FF as junior partner?
 
The lib dems in the U.K. were polled to get a huge vote. but on the big day they only got their normal no of MPs.
I suspect the same here with labour.Labour will do as well as their best showing in the last 30 years plus maybe 4 or 5 extra.
The arithmetic will dictate the future makeup of the coalition....as our politicians love the perks,ministries of being in power.
I would agree that labour are the kingmakers, no matter what vote they get. If they have more seats than their coalition partners the Gilmore is taoiseach...if not then its not Gilmore.
 

Hard to compare because of the different systems. If the UK had proportional representation instead of first past the post, the Lib Dems would have done a lot better in terms of seats. The system over there protects the two party system. I agree that transferring poll votes into actual votes will be a challenge for Labour. Speaking personally, Labour is very weak in my area.
 
Fine Gael would be better off staying out of the next government. They are going to be as unpopular as the current government, as our economic difficulties are far from over. If FG stayed out they could win big next time around.
 
I would be a Labour supporter but I just can't see them getting 50 seats. In the last election they had enough first round votes in Dublin South to get a seat but because they ran 2 candidates the vote split and didn't come back sufficiently to win the seat.
I fear their new candidates (many of whom would never have expected to be in with a chance of a seat) will lack the discipline to share constituencies with party colleagues. They'll also be hit by the retirement of Liz McManus and Mary Upton both of whom would have been guaranteed seats.
 

Agree.

The media consistantly says that, based on poll figures, Labour will win at least 1 seat in each Dublin constituency. However, due to a combination of factors including profile of labour candidate(s), other parties candidates, local organisation, local issues etc., I can safely say that Labour will not win any seats in my constituency. The type of overall support polls that newspapers conduct do not take into account the particular circumstances in each constituency. I would love to see a poll done on a constituency by constituency basis based on who will vote for the probable candidates.
 
Shawady said:
What about a Labour-led government with FF as junior partner?
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How many times does Gilmore have to unequivocally rule this out before people will listen?
Which constituency?
The costs of local polling is generally prohibitive. You'd have to go to at least 400 people per constituency, and the national polls are generally based on 1000 people.
 
Complainer said:
How many times does Gilmore have to unequivocally rule this out before people will listen?
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I guess they are just going on past experience. Unfair to Gilmore - but people don't tend to believe politicians these days, and will look at the past for guidance.
 
csirl said:
I would love to see a poll done on a constituency by constituency basis based on who will vote for the probable candidates.
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Definitely would be of a lot more use.

I think the following was used very accurately in UK exit polls:

Take the national swings in support since the last election and see how it would have changed the results if applied to individual constituencies in the last election.

Obviously it works better in the UK's first past the post, but it's infintely better than trying to apply a national percentage to 166 seats.
 
shnaek said:
I guess they are just going on past experience. Unfair to Gilmore - but people don't tend to believe politicians these days, and will look at the past for guidance.
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I'm guessing that you're referring to 1992 here. To the best of my knowledge, Spring never ruled out coalition with FF before the election (but I'm open to correction here from anyone with better (bitter?) memories).
 
Which constituency?
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Dublin North Central.

Labour are starting from a very low base - 7% in last election. They need to more than double their vote to have any chance. As its a 3 seater, the quota is 25%+1. Traditionally the local party mechanism has been weak and there is no sign of any change. The candidate chosen is running in his first ever general election and is not a local - parachuted in from Dublin Central. Some more local candidates effectively ruled themselves out by mis-reading the electorate and getting on the wrong side of an important local issue in recent years causing some turmoil in the local party - so its not surprising they've brought in an outsider.

I expect the 3 incumbant TDs to be returned, but with FF being in 3rd place rather than 2nd.
 
The Labour Party under Dick Spring was a different animal to what it is today. Remember that after Spring left there was a reverse take-over by the Workers Party and they hate Fianna Fail going right back to the time when they called themselves “the republican party” and The Workers Party were Sinn Fein. Gilmore et al have come a long way since politically but I’m sure the old grudges are still there somewhere.
 
P.S. maybe if someone set up an election predictions thread and AAM posters in each constituency, who'd be best able to read the situation locally, could post their predictions for the next GE. Add up all the prediction results and it may give us quite an accurate preview of the next Dail.
 
csirl said:
The candidate chosen is running in his first ever general election and is not a local
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I assume you're not talking about Derek McDowell ? Who then ? Cllr. Aodhan O'Riordan (sp?) ?

I agree with your analysis. Finian McGrath will draw votes from the left of the political divide, as well as transfers from all other candidates. LAB's chance of getting a seat in DubNC are slim.

I'm in DubNE and can see little prospect of Tommy Broughan bringing in a second candidate (in a 3-seater). Killian Forde could do well, but the SF history can be used against him. Also, his power base is Donaghmede, which overlaps with Broughan.

So that's 2 Dublin constituencies, 6 seats and LAB should get one, which means that they'll need to over-achieve in other constituencies.

Take the 2 Donegal constituencies, NE & SW. LAB, traditionally, have no presence in the county and would be doing very well to get one seat, out of the 6 available.

So, 4 constituencies, 12 seats, 2 TDs. This is why I cannot see LAB translating a poll result into an electoral surge.
 
I am in Dublin North and they may get one through Brendan Ryan but even then I would actually back Clare Daly of the Socialist Party to take some of the vote away from him. No chance of a second seat.
 
dereko1969 said:
Well in Dublin South Central there are 2 Labour seats potentially, same in Dun Laoghaire ..
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In DL you have Gilmore (LAB), Hanafin (FF), Andrews (FF), Cuffe (GP) & Barrett (FG). Richard Boyd Barrett went close the last time and Eugene Regan has kept his profile high from the Senate.

Has this now gone to 4 seats ? I assume Gilmore and Hanafin will be OK, with FG picking up the third seat, leaving the transfers deciding the 4th seat. If Gilmore can't deliver a second seat in his own constituency, it's a bad reflection on him and his constituency organisation. Sure Bertie managed to get even Cyprian Brady into the Dail on his coat tails !
 
He may be trailing a parachute behind him, but he could be a strong candidate. He talks a good game. And, if there's going to be a FG/LAB landslide, independents will have no leverage in the next Dail, thus Finian McGrath's ability to deliver is diminished.
 
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