FF/FG coaltion after the next election?

C

celebtastic

Guest
The most interesting (and welcome) aspect of the bye-election in Meath was the complete decimation of Labour's vote, and the fact that it was greeted with guffaws of laughter in the count hall.

Can't see Gilmore and his comrades in government beyond the next election.

But what about FF? Up from 19% to 33% - making the chances of them taking a seat there a very real probability.

With Labour and the independents likely to take a mauling in the next election, what are the chances of a coalition between FF and FG?

Now - that'd be an interesting one.
 
I think Celebtastic will be proved right after the next general election. Unless Labour distances itself from Fine Gael (and fast) it is heading down the tubes. It's probably too late already for Labour.

Fianna Fáil are building quietly with Michéal visiting every constituency. At this stage Fianna Fáil have little to lose and will accept any Labour Party own goal.

God help us then with a coalition of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. So much for democracy! But, as we all know, we are being run by the Troika, so what difference does it make?
 
I honestly cant see Labour getting back in, under any possible permutation.

They really have shown themselves up to be little more than the mouthpiece for the public sector unions.

They are not fit to lead a cub scout patrol, let alone hold positions in government
 
I really can't see a FG/FF coalition, and think of the year, the 1916 centenary.

It would be like a Labour/Tory coalition in the UK. Only a life threatening national emergency could countenance it and hopefully by 2016 Ireland will be out of the intensive care unit.

I have been trying to estimate the outturn of the next election given present trends, I get:

FG 60 (-16), FF 55 (+35), Lab 20 (-17), SF 20 (+6)

On that arithmetice Lab cannot make an overall majority with either the big two. I think a minority government looks a possibility. FF and FG are each 20/1 against a minority government, either looks a good bet.
 
Hugely disappointing result for Labour , thankfully the next scheduled election is more than 2 years away & such is the fickleness of the electorate ( as evidenced by the rise in the polls by FF ) that the tide may swing in Labour's favour.

The one good thing about the bye election result is that we may see Labour being more assertive in terms of insisting on their policies being implemented.
 

I agree with your first and last paragraph. However, their love affair with public service unions has dwindled over the years to now comparatively little association. My wife attended an IMPACT meeting recently where the attendance screamed for dissolution for any association with Labour only to be informed that that union have no association or loyalty whatsoever to Labour.

Fianna Fáil never thought they would see the day when they were out of favour in Ireland and that day came. Labour's destruction will come also. If I were in Labour, I would be mending many fences.

Wait for some Labour heads to roll.
 

Dont know about that.

Looks like Labour are dead set on imploding:
http://www.rte.ie/news/2013/0331/379193-keaveney-calls-for-programme-for-government-review/

That election could be a lot sooner than two years away.

Rabbitte is a clever fella though - he knows enough to hang onto power for as long as he can. As soon as that election is called Labour risks joining the PDs and the Greens in political oblivion, and he knows it.

The closing line in this clip is typical of Labour's backpedalling: "Sure, isnt that what you tend to do during an election?"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAS0c5AkiNg

Indeed it is Pat
 
The one good thing about the bye election result is that we may see Labour being more assertive in terms of insisting on their policies being implemented.

It IS Labour's policies being implemented from what I can see over the past couple of years!!!
 
Thankfully a wake up call that gives the Labour Party plenty of time to get their act together , Paddy Power is offering 4 to 1 for an early election next year with 2015 or later on offer at 7 to 4 - about right I would have thought ?

And given the fickle nature of electorate , if the recent polls are anything to go by - anything can happen.
 
All government parties get hammered in elections (unless they are recklessly throwing around tax cuts and pay increases).That is particularly true of left wing parties because their policies are not workable in practice so when they are in power and have to deal with reality they are seen as betraying their election promises. The problem for Labour is that FG’s pre-election talk was much closer to reality than theirs.
 
FF and FG would be better off merging, never mind going into coalition together. Having monitored Irish politics for many years now, I am still unsure what the key differences between them are meant to be. I know that the actual differences are negligible. I think a merger of the two would actually be very healthy, and force the electorate to face up to some of their thinking, or lack of, on voting.

There seems to be something about junior coalition partners that leaves them destined to suffer. Possibly because their own supporters will always be disappointed in taking a back-seat to others, and presiding over another party's decisions which they view as unpopular. There was a movement within Labour that viewed going into Government as a mistake, and they may well be proved right. But who refuses power? That is not something a politician is going to do. A short spell as a minister is better than being right!

I have always voted Labour and for as long as I vote I probably always will, though my current leanings are towards abstention from the voting process. I vote Labour because I think Ireland badly needs a strong Social Democratic movement, which it has not had due to the FF/FG family based gombeen politics obsession. We are fairly remarkable in Europe for our lack of a large SD movement.

I also view ethical considerations as trumping political or economic considerations. As an Atheist I am precluded from being a judge, and I could never be President. I am pro-choice, pro-gay rights and generally socially liberal. FF/FG have no interest in any of those issues, they are a mix of conservatives and those who would rather hide from these issues and pretend they did not exist. I would like my son to go to a school where the patron was not the Catholic Church. FF/FG do not care about that. A large proportion of them think the Church has a place in schools. The others just don't care.

So, even though I am predisposed toward voting for Labour, even I feel a lot of disenchantment with them now. Bar Ruairi Quinn's efforts in Education, they have done little to be proud of. They have shown themselves to be equal to other parties in taking care of their friends with appointments etc. They are in many ways just as bland and self-serving as FF/FG, you get the feeling politics is just what has to be done to stay aboard the gravy train.

I saw the Labour core vote as consisting of "working class" people. I am not sure that is true at all, at least not in the conventional sense. I think Labour attracts a significant % of (lower) middle class voters who care about socio-ethical issues such as abortion, separation of church and state etc. These people are not seeing too much progress on these issues, and are the private sector among them are probably not too keen on the ties with and mouth-piecing for the Union element.

Incidentally, as a private sector higher earner I'd be far better served in a financial sense in voting FF/FG, but I have always found something especially repugnant in those parties, centred on how much of the membership is bound by a lack of a coherent belief in any type of politics bar holding power.
 
Fg/Lab in opposition were irresponsible.

They then made false promises to win votes.

I think the next govt will be SF/FG.

Labour will be wiped out.

They won't ne missed.
 
Fg/Lab in opposition were irresponsible.

They then made false promises to win votes.

I think the next govt will be SF/FG.

Labour will be wiped out.

They won't ne missed.

Yawn! And FF weren't irresponsible in power at all? They brought in the Property Tax by having it included in the Troika agreement following their surrendering of financial independence and now are campaigning against it, how is that anything other than political opportunism?

FF are doing their usual in opposition speaking out of both sides of their mouths, and particularly smug looking mouths they are too.
 
What have Labour actually done to earn such animosity? I am honestly curious. Will anyone who has expressed delight at their poor performance in the recent bye election actually articulate what their source of enjoyment is?

For an election that saw a blatant sympathy vote elect an at best "under" qualified candidate, and also saw a resurgence of FF, it seems an odd angle to take.

After the worst economic catastrophe the country has ever seen it is a source of great disappointment to me that we seem to be left with a political hierarchy that is untouched.