Fantasy Land Economics

W

Wishes

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I've just been listening to economist David Duffy on Morning Ireland regarding a report authored by J. Fitzgerald and D. Duffy of the ESRI; on property prices and the housing market and I've never heard such clap-trap.

Let's call it what it is, pious aspirations based on amateurish interpertations of CSO stastics, frog marched into a preported economic frame that takes no account of considered economic evaluation.

This does a dis-service to the market and ESRI's reputation following on from the withdrawel of Prof. Richard Tolls paper on the value of unemployment allowances v's employment.

ESRI, I suggest would be better spending their time seeking real economic solutions rather than deaing with the cost of prams in disadvantaged housing estates.

I suggest both the co authors read Moodys latest comments. http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0615/moodys-sees-another-20-fall-in-house-prices.html
 
Professor John FitzGerald has Masters degrees in both History and Economics.

What are your credentials ?
 
They are also not the first people to say this. They are not saying the Irish property market as a whole is going to improve. They are saying there is a growing pent up demand for a certain type of housing stock especially in places like Dublin. Not sure why you call it fairytale economics.
 
TarfHead said:
Professor John FitzGerald has Masters degrees in both History and Economics.

What are your credentials ?
Click to expand...
well i dont have any degrees if thats what you mean, but thanks for pointing out that john fitzgerald has one for economics, then again it is something you would need to be told about!
 
John fitzgerald's father was also an economist, he even lectured in it after leaving Aer Lingus. I don't think anyone could ever accuse Garret of doing a good job economically when he ran the show (though much of the social reform he introduced with Dick Spring was excellent).
Qualifications don't equal competence.
 

Hi Sunny,

I agree they are taking about pend up demand but how does this square with surplus stock throughout the 26 counties, unfinished developments; prehaps NAMA could help them with the exact figures, but the real point is I suspect the ESRI are attempting to draw a floor on property prices.

Let us qualify what the pent up demand is and who the proposed purchasers will be - will they be bank, education, construction or manufacturing workers? I very much doubt it.

Who is going to finance these suppossed young professionals with large deposits buring a hole in their pocket?
 

Again you are the missing the point. They were not talking about growing demand in the 26 counties. They are talking about demand and supply shortages in certain areas i.e. cities for certain types of properties. There might well be a surplus of family homesin Leitrim but that's no good if demand is in Dublin. You are seeing it with rent prices in certain parts of Dublin already.

As for where the demand will come from, we have 14% unemployment. Very high but still vast majority of people are in employment. The report also addresses the credit issue by saying prices won't rise overnight. They will only rise when there is available credit.
 
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