Hi NRC
I see I documented his record here.
Donal O'Donovan analyses Morgan Kelly's record in a very interesting summary manner in today's Irish Independent. (There is also a more general article: Noonan urges Central Bank to heed Kelly's warning on SMEs) UCD professor Morgan Kelly has a habit of exploding complacency by predicting –...
www.askaboutmoney.com
He had not been saying it for some time.
But they key point is that he was clearly against the guarantee and so there was not general consensus on the issue.
Brendan Keenan, Group Business Editor, Independent Newspapers, Professor Morgan Kelly, UCD Economics Department and Kevin McConnell, Head of Research, Bloxha...
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"We need to keep our retail banks going. There are some non-retail banks which could have been let go. Nobody would have missed them.
Brendan Keenan: The Irish banks say that they are short of capital and just need capital to trade their way out of this
Kelly: No other bank in the world agrees with them - it's not liquidity - it's bad loans.
Brendan Keenan: We know what Irish banks' bad loans are going to be...They will be about 1% of their loan book
Kelly: No, that is complete nonsense . They have €25 billion in capital. All the ghost estates you see around the place. That is the capital of the Irish banks. They are going to make horrific losses
Kevin McConnell - Bloxhams: Quoting international banking commentators: "Ireland will be the template for other countries ... We have intervened very early
Kelly: Of course they love them. The Irish Government has written a blank cheque for them. I wish they did the same for me.
Keenan: If it's a Swedish type banking crisis, of course this solution won't work - I don't the figures that suggest to me that this is a Swedish situation
Kelly: I disagree entirely . We are looking at losses in the region of €10 billon to €20 billion unless something miraculous happens in the property market which won't happen.
Miriam O'Callaghan : "As Shane Ross says, why help banks who have behaved irresponsibly?"