Eurovision 2023

Thanks peemac.

I know someone who claimed to have bet on the outcome of the Eurovision on this basis - i.e. that he was privy to the results before the official Sat night vote. Insider trading. Is this ethical when the aggrieved party is the bookies?! PROBABLY
 
Right Winger said:
I suppose Betfair is a proxy for the public vote. And the semi-finals are decided by the public vote not the juries. So it should be pretty accurate. Maybe there is an opportunity to take a few bob off Paddy after all!
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Well of course, but they haven't been too great at predicting election results in recent times. 10 out of 10 is still very impressive. I doubt they will repeat that tonight.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Well of course, but they haven't been too great at predicting election results in recent times.
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Yeah, the last midterm elections in the US were a classic example. Basically the results following the opinion polls almost exactly (a result favourable to the Democrats) whereas the betting markets had been trending heavily Republican as the election approached.

Duke of Marmalade said:
10 out of 10 is still very impressive. I doubt they will repeat that tonight.
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I wonder. I suspect there's less partisan emotion getting in the way of a accurate prediction when it comes to song contests. In other words, the people interested enough to televote are very likely the same people interested enough to punt a few bob, and they'll back whatever they think is the best song with the most chance of winning.

There's another interesting factor too. With no juries in the semifinals, the televote decides everything. After the initial televote in the semi final, the relative popularity of the front runners in that semifinal is now a known quantity. As will be the same for the other semifinal too. So anyone who knows the details of the voting returns had a headstart in predicting the overall results - people's opinions as to a songs merits are unlikely to change in a few days. If that knowledge is tightly controlled, those with access to it have a massive advantage in the betting markets. With that amount of insider information potentially around, and distorting the odds, I'd be reluctant to plunge in.
 
The Guardian with a 'pithy' one paragraph review of each Eurovision winner

Sample:

10. Niamh Kavanagh – In Your Eyes (Ireland, 1993)​

Good pub quiz fact: the key change during In Your Eyes was suggested by Idina Menzel, now best known as the voice of Elsa in Frozen and the singer of the inescapable Let It Go. In Your Eyes is definitely a cut above your average Eurovision ballad, aided by Kavanagh’s impressively gutsy voice.

All 69 Eurovision song contest winners – ranked!

From Abba to Céline Dion, chicken noises to lyrics about magical shoes, we rate and slate every winning entry from 1956 onwards
www.theguardian.com
 
@Duke of Marmalade I think the bookies got 9/10 right. They called it right on some tight calls imo Slovenia to get through & Denmark and San Marino to not qualify. I think Albania instead of Georgia was the wild card. The Albanian performance on the night had a lot of energy and the whole family angle.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Two horse race. Sweden 1.54 (65%) Finland 4.7 (21%)
Ukraine 18.5 (5%) France 90 (1%) UK 170 ( 0.6%)
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I saw an interview with the guys representing Ukraine and they seem sound but the song I can't recall at all, in a good or bad way.
I am a fan of the French song but I don't think it has enough oomph to grab big votes. Similar for Italy and Lithuania with probably the best actual singers in the contest.
The UK song doesn't stand out from the pack for me.

I hope Finland wins, for their madcap effort - I think the Swedish effort is just a rehash of their great win with Euphoria.

For fun performances check out Australia, Belgium, Austria, Slovenia, Norway and Portugal.
Poland and Israel are basically Kylie \ Shakira knockoffs.

For quintessential Eurovision aka what am I watching there's Finland as noted above, plus Albania, Moldova, Germany and Croatia.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Two horse race. Sweden 1.54 (65%) Finland 4.7 (21%)
Ukraine 18.5 (5%) France 90 (1%) UK 170 ( 0.6%)
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Ok, Sweden 1st ; Finland 2nd; the rest nowhere.
But digging down it was a very weird result. Sweden beat Finland in the jury vote by 340 votes to 150. In fact Finland did quite poorly in the jury vote.
But Finland won hands down in the popular vote by 376 to 243. Finland got 12 points from 18 countries' popular votes including Éire and Sweden got no 12 points.
So how on earth did the bookies/punters call this one right? Surely they would have a better sense of the popular vote than the jury vote. I actually think they might have been a tad "lucky" - they couldn't have had this precise an insight. Surely if they knew that Finland hammered Sweden 177-135 in the semis Finland would have started favourite on Saturday.
BTW Ireland came 12th (of 16) in their semi final and not plum last as predicted by the markets.
 
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Ireland came in ahead of Netherlands in our semi-final... I had that down as a qualifier so baffled by that one.
Latvia in 11th just missed out to Serbia in 10th by 3 points, but then a long way down to the rest i.e. Latvia 34 points versus Ireland 10 points, Netherlands 7 points.
 
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