European Parliament Elections

Nial Boylan may upset the applecart.

If voting on European elections in Dublin bring a flask of tea and some sandwiches.... its a bloomin long ballot paper.

Knuttell said:

Nial Boylan may upset the applecart.

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Apple carts are notoriously sensative.

Knuttell said:

Nial Boylan may upset the applecart.

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I think people who vote for him may have regrets when skeletons come out of the closet... meetings with far right Italian holocaust denial groups for example are now coming to light on The Ditch.

odyssey06 said:

I think people who vote for him may have regrets when skeletons come out of the closet... meetings with far right Italian holocaust denial groups for example are now coming to light on The Ditch.

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I wouldn't have thought it required much digging to find skeletons, a lot of his views have been well publicised for anyone interested in knowing more about him. Maybe there's even more extreme stories to emerge but if what is already out there is not enough to dissuade voters I don't know what is.

Now that the polls are soon to close I thought I would look back over the likely ones

Dublin: Still Doherty, Andrews Boylan (thats Lynn) and another. Claire Daly has the name recognition you know.

NMW: Lots of surprises here, Maria Walsh seems to be the FG leader rather than Carberry. Cowan is the FF front runner by a mile. Gildernew for SF. Ming Flanagan for sure. That leaves one slot. Mullolly or Tobín. If Mullooly can gather the angry people transfers he may nose ahead, but I wouldnt count Tobín out.

South: Kelly, Kelleher and Funchion. McNamara has made a solid showing and looking at the likely eliminations, Hourigan, Ní Mhurchú the sensible woman vote may keep Grace O Sullivan in for the Greens.

FF 3 and not 4 as I previously thought.
FG 3 with an impressive share of first preferences
SF 3 great vote management
Greens 1 Hanging in by a thread
Others, a leftie in Dublin, a rightie in MNW (though neither Mullooly nor Tóibín are of the nasty variety), McNamara a socially conservative Leftie in South.

I wonder will many of Niall Boylan's voters tick Lynn instead, oh the benefits of alphabetical order.

Just a hunch but I wouldn't be surprised if Niall Boylan performed exceptionally well - possibly even topping the poll? Most of the pundits and opinion polls have him either fighting for the last seat or just scraping in. I think he'll do a lot better than that (based on hearing his name being mentioned by a fairly wide spectrum of people of all ages that I've encountered over the last week or two.)

On the other hand Aodhan O'Riordan has been one of the most visible on my social media feeds over the last few weeks with expensive looking videos - yet he's not seen as being in the running. (I wonder is he regretting that photo-op stunt a few weeks back where he was pictured literally helping migrants to re-establish the tent city on Mount Street after it had been cleared? Wouldn't see that as a big vote-winner myself outside of leafy Clontarf.)

Rory Hearne too is very visible media-wise but he's polling badly - possibly because he's framed his narrative as being about "Housing versus Hate," and variations along those lines.

Either way, there could be more than a few shocks in store - and I agree with Ivan Yates when he said on Newstalk the other day that the opinion polls are on trial at this election more than ever before.

I don't eat popcorn but might needs some over the weekend!

1st preference

I'll call FG followed by FF and SF end 3rd.

Seems a lot of their "traditional" vote might have stayed at home and Harris may have moved some younger voters away from SF.

Lynn boylans odds in Dublin went from a near certainty 1/12 to a unsure 1/3 with boyles. 4th after Niall boylan.

Macron calls snap election in France after big losses in Euro election:

Projected results from France put far-right Le Pen’s party around 33%, with 31 seats in the incoming European Parliament – more than double the score of President Emmanuel Macron’s liberals, who are expected to get 15%.

Europe wide exit poll:

The centre-right European People's Party (EPP) is on course to remain the leading party in the new EU parliament, an exit poll has shown. The EPP is set to win 181 seats, followed by the Socialists & Democrats (S&D) with 135 seats in the new parliament, the projection showed.
That would put the EPP's candidate to head the European Commission, incumbent Ursula von der Leyen of Germany, in pole position for a second term.

First count declared in Dublin Euro constituency... going to be a few days before we get a clearer picture of how the transfers will affect seats.

First count:

1. Barry Andrews (FF) – 62,147
2. Regina Doherty (FG) – 61,344
3. Lynn Boylan (SF) – 35,431
4. Ciarán Cuffe (GP) – 32,204
5. Aodhán Ó Riordáin (Lab) – 30,733
6. Niall Boylan (II) – 30,637
7. Clare Daly (I4C) – 26,855
8. Bríd Smith (PBP-S) – 21,577
9. Sinead Gibney (SD) – 16,319
10. Daithí Doolin (SF) – 10,766
11. Aisling Considine (AON) – 10,693
12. Malachy Steenson (I) – 7,128
13. Umar Al-Qadri (I) – 4,707
14. Philip Dwyer (IFP) – 4,479
15. Diarmaid O Conaráin (I) – 3,548
16. Brendan Ogle (I) – 3,148
17. Rebecca Barrett (I) – 2,997
18. Patrick Quinlan (I) – 2,595
19. Robin Cafolla (RG) – 2,514
20. Stephen O’Rourke (I) – 2,250
21. Andy Heasman (IP) – 2,028
22. Eamonn Murphy (I) – 1,557
23. Conor Murphy (I) – 1,065

Hopefully that puts clare daly out of the running now, she is too far back, surprised aodhan o riordan actually got 30k first preferences
Also mick Wallace is struggling in South constituency

joe sod said:

Hopefully that puts clare daly out of the running now, she is too far back, surprised aodhan o riordan actually got 30k first preferences
Also mick Wallace is struggling in South constituency

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A lot will depend on where these preferences go between Daly, Cuffe, O'Riordan.

• Bríd Smith (PBP-S) – 21,577
• Sinead Gibney (SD) – 16,319

I'd assume a lot of the early eliminations (sub 10,000 votes) will favour Niall Boylan.

You'd expect Lynn Boylan to get a boost from her running mate Daithí Doolin (SF) – 10,766 and maybe some from Aisling Considine (AON) – 10,693.

Doherty and Andrews won't have a surplus by the looks of things that could help out O'Riordan or Cuffe as they didn't reach the quota on first count and don't have running mates.

I'd be very surprised if Lunn Boylan wasn't elected.

If both Daly and Wallace are given the boot it will make my week.

joe sod said:

Hopefully that puts clare daly out of the running now,

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Not convinced as she will heavily take transfers from Brid Smith when eliminated.

Daly was very transfer friendly in 2019. Was well fourth on first count but took third place even before final count.

Dr Strangelove said:

Not convinced as she will heavily take transfers from Brid Smith when eliminated.

Daly was very transfer friendly in 2019. Was well fourth on first count but took third place even before final count.

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But in 2019 she didn't have the toxic legacy regarding ukraine war, she was new and clean. Also I would think she was higher up in rankings after first count, wouldn't aodhan o riordan and Lynn boylan not take a good chunk of brid Smyth transfers?

@joe sod absolutely.

I think she’s not the most likely to take #4 but not out of running either.

From the early eliminations so far Niall Boylan, O'Riordan and Lynn Boylan doing best out of the transfers ahead of Cuffe, Daly.

Niall Boylan now 800 votes behind Cuffe for that 4th seat - O'Riordan slipping further behind Boylan. (Cuffe looks marginally stronger at this stage but It'll take quite a few more counts.)