EU reaches agreement on ‘landmark’ crypto rules

jigsaw said:
This post is not going to age well
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BTC down 5% the last 24 hours.

I'm really not sure the impact the ETF will have. It'll probably take a year to get up to the size and I guess we'll have a true measure of 'wall street' interest in Crypto by then.


Is there an argument this is net negative for the broader market in terms of adoption? A quick thought is that these ETFs are much cheaper / easier than buying BTC via an exchange in the US. Resulting in a loss of trading fee incomes for US exchanges, with reduced fees they go out of business thus removing access to the broader market for the entirety of the US. Or as not extreme, due to the reduced fees they can't spend r&d on further enhancing the adoption (payment gateways etc).
 
DublinHead54 said:
BTC down 5% the last 24 hours.

I'm really not sure the impact the ETF will have. It'll probably take a year to get up to the size and I guess we'll have a true measure of 'wall street' interest in Crypto by then.
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5% is nothing, I wouldnt rule out a drop below 30k in the short term

It's just an apportunity to scoop up more bitcoin at a discount.
 
jigsaw said:
5% is nothing, I wouldnt rule out a drop below 30k in the short term

It's just an apportunity to scoop up more bitcoin at a discount.
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Whats the rational on the price dropping 30% when there is an influx of net new cash into the system? Also a discount to what? $45k, $100k etc

Note, I've seen many on twitter saying they expect a drawback.....but no explanation.
 
I definitely think its a case of standing back and reviewing in 12 - 18 months.

DublinHead54 said:
Whats the rational on the price dropping 30% when there is an influx of net new cash into the system? Also a discount to what? $45k, $100k etc

Note, I've seen many on twitter saying they expect a drawback.....but no explanation.
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There's new cash coming in - but there's also supposed to be a rotation out of Grayscale product (and other more expensive products). Also Vanguard, BoA and Merrill Lynch are not offering Bitcoin ETF product access although their clients can sell off GBTC.

As regards short/medium term price action, I'd imagine that BTC has been overdue a pullback. Pullbacks are healthy. Otherwise, here's some macro economic speculations on a possible short/medium term slump.

Otherwise, what you see on Twitter are folks expecting what they've seen in crypto time and time again. A buy the rumor, sell the news event. And perhaps it will pan out like that ...but of course markets do what markets do (oftentimes the opposite of what the herd think)...who knows, may not necessarily pan out that way.

On adoption, you've raised the idea of this making the exchange business less profitable. Maybe so - we'll have to see...although I'm inclined to think that they're two separate markets. I won't be buying any Bitcoin ETF shares. There are plenty around the world like me. If the likes of Brian Armstrong and CZ make less, I don't mind! I don't really view them in any better light than the Wall Street set.

Establishing BTC further can also aid adoption. More people will be less scared in using it. More regulatory clarity has been established, meaning a new set of folks can use it for various purposes. And of course, over the medium term and onwards, I'd expect a broadening of market cap and an easing of BTC volatility...which can also be helpful for various use cases.
 
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DublinHead54 said:
Whats the rational on the price dropping 30% when there is an influx of net new cash into the system? Also a discount to what? $45k, $100k etc

Note, I've seen many on twitter saying they expect a drawback.....but no explanation.
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Profit taking, people holding a lot of gains sell up to cash out before any drop, price drops a little and that prompts more to take profits before it falls. Then they may get in again later when it drops and try to repeat until the music stops at some point. The so-called whale accounts are also closely monitored and any selling by one of those can spark a panic.
 
exactly right, just people taking profits.

Im praying for sub 30k so I can back up the truck, might be a long shot though
 
jigsaw said:
exactly right, just people taking profits.

Im praying for sub 30k so I can back up the truck, might be a long shot though
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To @RonnieShinbal88 logic though we would have seen the domino effect down to 30%. A 30% shift down feels like a larger move than some taking profits, if not then there are two many whales.

Largely a lot of the price action on BTC now is taken through shorts / futures.
 

It will 100% make the US exchanges less profitable, or at least impact future profit growth. History has shown that trading shops (any asset class) aren't the best business models.

Some of the large US exchanges have already been rekt by the crypto winter and got a get out of free jail card from Mr Powell......the irony.

But my point was just an observation of how an ETF could negatively impact the broader crypto adoption outside of it being an investment product. I did think it was nice some of the more crypto native ETF issuers donating profits to bitcoin development.....but ETFs are a race to the bottom, the lowest fee typically wins.
 
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time to plan said:
If it went to 1k, you could buy even more!
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Very true. Not going to happen though.

Not a big deal either way as I'm under 40 and never have to work again for the rest of my life.

I just DCA every single week regardless of the noise.
 
Absolutely - I hadn't forgotten! My 'wait and see' response wasn't a 'i really don't agree with you' wait and see. I've an open mind on it. I can't imagine a world where there still aren't exchanges. I really don't care if they're much less profitable. Exchanges are only part of the whole deal.

Remember as well that we're largely talking about bitcoin. "crypto" is different even if related. You mentioned bitcoin development and a lot has happened on that front over the past year that could see broader "crypto" development circle back to bitcoin again.
 
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jigsaw said:
Very true. Not going to happen though.

Not a big deal either way as I'm under 40 and never have to work again for the rest of my life.

I just DCA every single week regardless of the noise.
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This doesn't make sense.

If you've made enough money to never have to work again, why risk it with DCA? If the market keeps going up year after your average cost price will be increasing your crypto exposure whilst reducing your cash supply. You'd end up with a large portion of your net worth in a volatile asset, which ultimately we don't really know what will happen to it.

I assume what you mean is that you are really just speculating with a small portion of the wealth accumulated?

As much as we love crypto, the real game is using it to getting rich in fiat and getting out
 
Because I believe bitcoin will appreciate much more in the future

I understand BTC is volatile, I've been buying it for 8 years.

I hold some altcoins also and have been lucky enough to get "whitelisted" for a few small defi projects last year and made outrageous gains from a few grand, even after tax.
 
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