ESRI Universal Basic Income.....Bonkers

Are we not facing a long term staffing shortage? We will need people to look after the much older population. We are moving to a service society where automation is less applicable e.g. coffee shops, food delivery, etc.

Brendan

Hibernia Forum and Renua had a proposal for a 20% flat rate of Income Tax with no credits or anything else.


I am surprised at a proposal to have 40% with no credits.

I doubt that basic income is the solution but it's definitely worth ESRI studying it to see the pros and cons, and maybe such a study would give rise to ideas which might be implemented.

Brendan

T McGibney said:

You're assuming that the underlying assumptions and methodology used in compiling the report are both beyond reproach. That's quite a big assumption.

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Simplistic nonsense! And even if both were flawed, the outcome of the analysis still provides a starting point for coming to a more informed decision.

Furthermore, given that the report was peer reviewed before being published, it would appear that both the methodology and assumptions were regarded as valid; hence, unless you're implying some form of underhand academic behaviour, it has credibility.

But by all means put up your criticisms of underlying assumptions and methodology used - and your proposed alternatives - and we'll be able to judge the comparative merits of both.

Groucho said:

Simplistic nonsense! And even if both were flawed, the outcome of the analysis still provides a starting point for coming to a more informed decision.

Furthermore, given that the report was peer reviewed before being published, it would appear that both the methodology and assumptions were regarded as valid; hence, unless you're implying some form of underhand academic behaviour, it has credibility.

But by all means put up your criticisms of underlying assumptions and methodology used - and your proposed alternatives - and we'll be able to judge the comparative merits of both.

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It's hardly simplistic to point out that your conclusion that "the ESRI study provides me with a firm, analytical basis to decide whether or not to support or reject this proposal, something that I didn't have before the study was performed" is wholly dependent on the validity of its methodology and underlying assumptions.

Peer review is useful but no guarantee of infallibility.

Will you get this universal basic income even if you are working and earning a wage or salary of any level?

Will you have to pay 40% tax on it?

RichInSpirit said:

Will you get this universal basic income even if you are working and earning a wage or salary of any level?

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Yes, it is unconditional, that is the whole point of it.

RichInSpirit said:

Will you have to pay 40% tax on it?

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AFAIK, the UBI is not taxed in any proposal I've seen.

By the way, an experimental, small-scale BI scheme is now running in Ireland, albeit with conditions.

Some references:





Isn’t basic income the ‘nanny state’ gone crazy?
Some people have suggested that a basic income involves too much support from the state and will make people too dependent. The way that basic income works is that the state, representing the entire community, provides the same unconditional basic support and security for all members of society. After that, each recipient is free to decide how best to organise the different parts of their lives such as family, personal development, work, education, community participation and leisure. This is very different from the constant monitoring that a so-called nanny state would engage in. Basic income provides a secure environment within which people are enabled to be self-reliant, to cooperate with others, and in general to be creative and imaginative about how they organise their lives.

Why should rich people get a basic income?
Guaranteeing a basic income to everyone, without conditions, is the best way to give economic security to everyone and to show care and respect for everyone. It is also administratively simpler to give basic income to everyone, avoiding the bureaucratic costs and intrusions of means-testing. However, people who are already rich would not be better off overall. In fact, they would make a bigger tax contribution than at present. But the universality of basic income means that should a wealthy person fall on hard times, their basic income would be automatically in place. They would not need to apply for assistance, which, under the present system, can involve a long waiting period.

Here is the Social Justice Ireland model for a UBI:

• Payment would be conditional on residency within Ireland. In line with current welfare requirements, non-citizens must have lived here for a number of years before becoming entitled to a UBI.
• The level of the payment would be age-dependent.
• Payment would be constant and does not change upon the taking up of employment or the acquiring of other income.
• All income, aside from the UBI payment, would be subject to tax at one single rate of 40 per cent. All other income tax rates, as well as Employee PRSI and Universal Social Charge, are abolished. The rationale for using a tax rate of 40 per cent was to show what could be achieved in the prevailing context in 2016. Raising the necessary funds on the basis of a more progressive taxation model would be preferable.
• The Employer PRSI rate would increase to 13 per cent.
• There would be no tax credits or tax reliefs.
• The UBI would replace almost all core welfare payments, payments in respect of disability, illness and other additional needs would be retained.

odyssey06 said:

As for automation, for the types of jobs I listed, I'll believe it when I see it.

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Reminds me of the Ali G skit where he was trying to get buy in to his new invention the hoverboard from tech investors in California. The hoverboard was just a skateboard with the wheels removed. Ali G paraphrasing
" How come nobody has thought of this , they were flying around on these in Back To The Future and that was made in 1989 and still nobody has done this"
Investor "But it doesn't fly"
"It doesn't fly yet, thats where you lot come in"

Even though its a skit , it shows that people over estimate what technology can do and the incredible difficulty in doing some things, its one thing saying how the future will be its a whole different thing actually achieving it
People in the 1960s thought there would be flying cars now due to the revolution in jet travel then, instead we are going back to very old tech, battery power

RichInSpirit said:

Will you get this universal basic income even if you are working and earning a wage or salary of any level?

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The problem is that to finance this universal basic income tax on any additional income earned through work would have to be very steep, thus creating a disincentive to work in the first place. That's why most economists seem to oppose it.

Yes, at least 40% on all earned income, with no lower rate, no tax credits.

Would that reduce the labour supply? Hard to know.

tomdublin said:

The problem is that to finance this universal basic income tax on any additional income earned through work would have to be very steep, thus creating a disincentive to work in the first place. That's why most economists seem to oppose it.

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And that was immediately obvious , a complete waste of time like Delboy in Only Fools to Rodney
"And you had to use ink to come to that conclusion"

Protocol said:

Here is the Social Justice Ireland model for a UBI:

Post-COVID-19: Basic Income, How it’s Paid for and How to Get There | Social Justice Ireland

www.socialjustice.ie

• Payment would be conditional on residency within Ireland. In line with current welfare requirements, non-citizens must have lived here for a number of years before becoming entitled to a UBI.
• The level of the payment would be age-dependent.
• Payment would be constant and does not change upon the taking up of employment or the acquiring of other income.
• All income, aside from the UBI payment, would be subject to tax at one single rate of 40 per cent. All other income tax rates, as well as Employee PRSI and Universal Social Charge, are abolished. The rationale for using a tax rate of 40 per cent was to show what could be achieved in the prevailing context in 2016. Raising the necessary funds on the basis of a more progressive taxation model would be preferable.
• The Employer PRSI rate would increase to 13 per cent.
• There would be no tax credits or tax reliefs.
• The UBI would replace almost all core welfare payments, payments in respect of disability, illness and other additional needs would be retained.

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That would be great for high earners as they would see a significant reduction in tax.
It would also see a booming black economy.