economy starting to turn?


There is a difference. The UK was trying to shift 40 year bonds. Ireland goes no where near that end of the curve so you can't compare. They sold inflation protected gilts the next day and were more than two times over subscribed.
I do agree with you though the UK is probably in a worst state than Europe at the moment.
 
Sunny said:
I do agree with you though the UK is probably in a worst state than Europe at the moment.
Click to expand...

As far as I'm aware this wasn't about the UK or Europe being in a worse state than the other, but which will come out of recession first. Unless I've missed something?

However, I think there is a consensus that says the UK is in a worse state, and that's something that I agree with. Due to being out of the relatively stable conditions of the Eurozone, the UK will do better in the good times and worse in the bad times than Eurozone.
 
Well here are two positive statistics:

"UK house prices rose for the first time since October 2007 according to the latest figures released this morning by Nationwide.This follows a stronger than expected survey for UK manufacturing yesterday which signalled an easing in the pace of decline."

"(IRL) In March, the numbers claiming unemployment benefit rose by 20,000, or 5.7%, from a month earlier, following a rise of 26,700 (8.2%) in February. So far, January of this year has represented the spike in claimant increases in any month, with a record 33,000, or 11.3%, rise. While the lower monthly rate of increase in numbers signing on is certainly welcome, it is too soon to rule out a new spike in coming months, given the significant deterioration in the Irish labour market that we anticipate."

Both from the Ulster Bank's economists over the last couple of days.

Of course two swallows etc
 
From Davy..
There was some good news on the public finances ahead of next week's Budget as
the pace of decline of tax revenue stalled. That was driven mainly by a smaller
percentage drop in income tax in March than in February. The improvement in
March may partly reflect the somewhat smaller rise in the Live Register than was
recorded in the previous month.

Tax revenue fell 22.4% year-on-year (yoy) in March compared with 31.4% in
February and 19% in January. That means revenue was down 23.4% in the first
quarter overall (it had been 23.8% lower after two months cumulatively).
Excise duty and VAT did not slide quite as significantly as they had in February. But
last month's declines of 29.8% and 20.6% were still sharp.
In the first quarter, expenditure increased by 6.1% yoy. Capital spending actually
fell 6.4% (in line with the new target outlined in February), but current spending
was up 8.2%. Much of this increase is accounted for by the automatic stabiliser of
higher social welfare payments. But the rest of current expenditure has to be
addressed in next week's Budget.
Successful fiscal consolidations have focused more on spending rather than on tax.
That is because lowering the economy's cost base makes businesses more
profitable and, hence, they are more likely to invest. In addition, we do not want to
lose our valuable human capital by going too far on tax.
 
Report out today gives two crumbs of comfort for those looking for evidence that the economy is turning, suggesting that:
1. the fall in house prices in Q1 was smaller than in Q4 08 - 4% as opposed to 6%... does that represent turning though?
2. the number of houses for sale has fallen by 5% from October to now... then again, it's still twice the level it should be!

The daft.ie economist who was on Newstalk this morning has some more commentary on the report here:
http://ronanlyons.wordpress.com/200...since-the-start-of-2009-latest-daftie-report/

Liam Delaney of UCD talks about the psychology of economics and the housing market here: http://www.daft.ie/report
 
Snarl said:
1. the fall in house prices in Q1 was smaller than in Q4 08 - 4% as opposed to 6%... does that represent turning though?
Click to expand...
A turning point will be very clear: when house prices from one quarter to the next do not fall or, god forbid, even rise.

Snarl said:
2. the number of houses for sale has fallen by 5% from October to now... then again, it's still twice the level it should be!
Click to expand...

I would imagine that a lot of people have either given up the hope of selling their house at something close to what they would like to get, or are not able to sell due to negative equity being too high, and therefore have taken their houses off the market. Bottom line is, supply and demand are are still very far apart, and prices won't stabalise until this is back in balance.

If there were any signs at all that the global economy was about to take a turn for the better, then there would be no need or justification for a $1trillion injection as decided at the G20 summit.
 
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