dockingtrade
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A couple of posters have used UK examples of the economy not turning. It must be remembered that in addition to the global problems, the UK is suffering a currency crash, which in its own right would be a big big deal and would have caused a recession anyway. The currency crash problem has not been fixed and may never be - this could be a permanent correction. So what's happening in the UK is a lot worse than what's happening here and the UK will not recover at the same pace as the rest of the world. Unfortunately for us, most people watch UK TV, particularly Sky News etc., and so our consumer confidence is being hammered by the negative messages being broadcast from the UK which may have no relevence here whatsoever.
Worryingly could interest rates start going the other way soon, and if we are still in high unemployment could that mean even harsher times for unemployed mortgage holders?
We export twice as much to the eurozone as we do to sterling.Being as the UK are one of our biggest export markets and tourist markets then the impact of their recovery (or lack therof) will impact on us.
We are not even close to turning. Look at the industrial output figures out this morning for the Eurozone. Down 3.5% m/m in January which is atrocious and a fall in Eurozone GDP of around 3-4% is now on the cards. The UK is also in serious trouble and the US has still not bottomed out despite this weeks rally in equities.
I think that the economy is beginning to turn, but probably will be a few months before people will feel the effects. I don't think there will be a boom recovery - just slow steady growth. The lack of consumer spending is somewhat down to people holding onto their cash in fear of what the future may bring. As people's confidence recovers more slowly that the reality, it is conceivable that consumer spending will lag behind reality and is not the most up to date barometer of recovery.
A couple of posters have used UK examples of the economy not turning. It must be remembered that in addition to the global problems, the UK is suffering a currency crash, which in its own right would be a big big deal and would have caused a recession anyway. The currency crash problem has not been fixed and may never be - this could be a permanent correction. So what's happening in the UK is a lot worse than what's happening here and the UK will not recover at the same pace as the rest of the world. Unfortunately for us, most people watch UK TV, particularly Sky News etc., and so our consumer confidence is being hammered by the negative messages being broadcast from the UK which may have no relevance here whatsoever.
There are some encouraging signs in the UK housing market
Especially as employers are exploring other avenues with workforces instead of redundancy. Pay freezes and reduced working hours are extremely common in the UK now and are used in many cases instead of enforced redundancy.
The value correction in the pound has made imports more expensive and exports much cheaper. I fail to see how this is a major problem for the UK economy as a whole.
Yes after the spending spree there will be a financial hangover to be paid by extra taxes,
I think you've being listening to too many Labour spin doctors.
No doubt if you tried hard enough you'd find a skanky rundown semi for £100k in a city, but it wouldn't be anything I'd buy. A quick review of sold prices in my postcode show that the last semi sold a few months back for over £230k3 bed semis in major cities selling for less than 100k - not very encouraging.
Not what my sources living in UK say. UK has been hit very hard with redundancy. The job market in midlands and north is non-existant - even min. wage jobs.
UK is a net importer. Significant hikes in consumer good prices i.e. electrical goods, cars, clothes etc. over the coming months will hit the ordinary punter. A devalued currency also means the price of imported fossils fuels will be higher.
There is a major problem with this statement. Uk does not have much scope to increase direct taxes. Those on minimum wage are already in the tax net. Compare it with Ireland where 40% are outside the tax net, so you can raise revenue by expanding the tax net to include everyone. UK does not have this option. Brown borrowing a load of money to bail out the banks was a panic move that the UK will pay for for years to come. The money did not alter confidence in british banking and so was wasted. The amounts borrowed are 10ks per taxpayer. How can they pay this back, particularly with a lot of the workforce on low wages?
We could argue about this all day, but ultimately time will tell and I'm very confident in my prediction.
A good indicator of what the market thinks came this week - bonds issued by the Irish Government thru the NTMA were way over subscribed. The UK couldnt shift the bonds it had planned to issue.
The difference in yield, or spread, between Irish and German 10-year government bonds widened to 284 basis points on March 19, the most in 10 years. It narrowed 23 basis points today to 249 basis points, the least since March 3. The spread was 38 basis points a year ago and the average over the past 10 years is 18 basis points.
We could argue about this all day, but ultimately time will tell and I'm very confident in my prediction.
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sounds good. just curious what is going to be the driver of the turn in this country?
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