Eastern European property and the carry trade

[tyoung]

I recently read that 80% of properties bought in Poland, Hungary and other Eastern European countries were financed with Swiss franc mortgages. This is a version of the carry trade. You borrow in a low yielding currency and reinvest in higher yielding assets. At some point this will blow up. The Swiss central bank has warned about this. The Swiss economy is growing strongly, unemployment is very low so interest rates are rising. Given it's very low inflation rate and the high inflation in Poland, Hungary etc the Swiss franc should strengthen against their currencies.
Even if you do not have a Swiss mortgage this could really affect the market in these countries.

 

[auto320]

That would be a valid point, except for one thing...

In soft currency areas, property is almost always quoted in hard currency. My own experience is primarily in Hungary and Romania on this issue; both places tend to quote property in euros (used to be dollars). Even when prices are quoted oin the local currency, sellers/buyers keep a reference to the hard currency. Whenever the local currency moves, property goes up or down almost immediately to track the euro.

This has nothing to do with foreign buyers. In the past, people in these economies kept all savings in hard currency to avoid the effects of inflation. It was normal (still is comon) for people to immediately convert any money they get into euro.

It is an issue, but not as significant as in other areas of an economy.