Donald Trump as Republican nominee

[Dan Murray]

Just trying to understand something.

On Betfair, DT is 1.04 to become the Republican nominee. Does this mean that one will get a 4% return in just over a month unless DT changes his mind, gets seriously ill or dies? - or is there some other scenario in which his presumptive nomination does not become realised?

Put another way, why is Hillary 1.02 in the equivalent Democrat race?

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Dan I don't think your return is over one month, I think it is the ultimate nominee in November that counts. I agree both look 100% to win their conventions. Hillary, I can explain. Apparently there is an outside chance she will be indicted on those emails before November. That would rule her out of the election. Note that Joe Biden is reckoned to be as likely a beneficiary as the Bern.

The Donald is harder to explain. Yes you have mentioned a few possibilities but not sufficient to justify 4% (illness at age 70? possible). There is possibly a slight chance that he will make one unforgivable howler that would force the grandees to dump him.

 

[Dan Murray]

Holy, holy Duke - I think you've just moved the market......1.05 as I write!

Point taken re November.

I guess my question is (read: far too lazy to be arsed to get my head around the rule book of the Grand Old Party).......do the grandees have the power to dump him?

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I might be wrong there. I'm in France (no not at Euro 2016) and can't access Betfair. But Betdaq (which I can access) state that their rules concern who gets nominated at the conventions and not who is ultimately the party candidate. So I share the puzzlement expressed in OP that there is anything on offer on these markets.

 

[S.L.F]

Dan I don't think your return is over one month, I think it is the ultimate nominee in November that counts. I agree both look 100% to win their conventions. Hillary, I can explain. Apparently there is an outside chance she will be indicted on those emails before November. That would rule her out of the election. Note that Joe Biden is reckoned to be as likely a beneficiary as the Bern.

The Donald is harder to explain. Yes you have mentioned a few possibilities but not sufficient to justify 4% (illness at age 70? possible). There is possibly a slight chance that he will make one unforgivable howler that would force the grandees to dump him.

Trump had to beat 16 other contenders whereas Clinton only had to beat one person.

That's why his chances were seen to be small.