Did anyone predict the sub-prime crisis and international credit freeze?

charliemacck said:
largely based on negative sentiment and also people applying for mortgages they could not afford in the long term.
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A little bit more negative sentiment at the time would have prevented people from getting "mortgages they could not afford in the long term".

Nice try though.

I think Brendan will be blushing at this point.
 
History is littered with smart people who went bust. Ask the nobel prize winning economists behind Long-Term Capital Management. They didn't see it coming either. The people on the other side of the trade did. Someone always sees it coming and profits from it. Some see it coming and despite this lose out (look at Peter Schiff). Some don't see it coming and still win. But there is always someone out there, most likely classified as a nut when he points out the risks, that sees it coming.

I am a student of past events. There is nothing new under the sun. If history does not repeat itself, it at least rhymes.

By the way, I am not having a poke at Brendan. Very few people saw it coming. This is not the same as "no one saw this coming".
 

I do not see how the Boss could consider that anything other than a big poke in his eye as are you are suggesting he is not sensible or clever enough to know that history repeats or is not a good student of past events. That is what you are saying now. Would it not be better for you to admit it is more likely that you simply got lucky hanging on the Ginger Fella's coattails for the past 15 years. A stopped clock is right once a day and all that.
 
This thread is becoming a little surreal, I'm not sure how you have construed other people's posts as a personalised attack on Brendan, Charlie. In any event, I'm sure that Brendan would be perfectly capable of defending himself if this was necessary.

It seems to me that the thread commenced with a very interesting question rather than an expressed viewpoint, to which the general response has been that each of the components of the current crisis were indeed predicted by various commentators, if not in the exact sequence that Brendan used in asking the question. The nature of the crisis is complex and by it's nature difficult to predict.

Whether the predictions which posters have linked to are an indication of realism and honesty or simply "stopped clock syndrome" presumably depends on readers personal perspectives, but in any case the links make for some very interesting reading indeed.
 
This report by Moran Kelly in April 07 is accurate in term of its predictions on the effect of an abrupt fall in housing construction activity on the economy and the likely fall in house prices.
[broken link removed]
 

Well, Doozie, as the leader of this forum I am sure that Brendan wants to maintain a distance from the slings and arrows of little bears. He is well to stay above this kind of squabble and leave it to stalwart yeoman like myself to take on these bugbears of misery. The above link is a good example, it was just yet another fella saying at great length as these academics are want to do that house prices will fall because they fell everywhere else before. As the saying goes would you jump off a cliff because your friend did it. As I said before if you say Ireland is like Japan sure that means we'll shortly be invading Manchuria. There were and are fundamental differences between Ireland and the rest of the world. Brendans question was "Did anyone predict the sub-prime crisis and international credit freeze?" and noone has proved this. If anyone had Brendan would have agreed with them.
 
SPC100 said:
Charlie what is the point you are trying to make? or is aim simply controversy.
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The point I am trying to make it that so far noone has proved the Boss wrong. Noone forsaw the current situation. I'm not sure what is so "controversial" about that except if you belong to the Ginger one's fan club.
 

Bizarre post.

What made Ireland and its housing bubble so different to the rest of the world? What are these fundamental differences that you keep talking about? Very few people (but there were some) saw the credit crisis coming but Irelands burst housing market has nothing to do with the sub-prime mess in the States and the subsequent credit crisis. Irelands property bubble burst all on its own just like the UK's, Spains, Sweden, Japan, Australia etc etc etc. A bubble is a bubble no matter where in the world it is. I personally thought we would get lucky and have a so called soft landing but I didn't forsee the economic conditions in this country turning so quickly, an incompetent government high on stamp duty taxes and of course the subsequent credit crisis (even though I was predicting things to get this bad and worse once the crisis began even as politicians and central bankers were saying it was a blip). I was wrong but can readily admit that there were plenty of people who were right.
 
Fred Harrison in the UK wrote a book in 2004 called 'boom bust the depression of 2010' prediction roughly how things would turn out.

Peter Schiff in the USA called it back in 2005 and there are videos of him at the mortgage bankers association annual meeting in 2006 and he talks all about the debt unwind which will result in an absence of credit etc. almost like he had a crystal ball at times! those vidz are on youtube, there are 7 of them each is about 8 mins long.
 
charliemacck said:
Noone forsaw the current situation.
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Look, Charlie lad, that is simply not true. Watch this video, seriously.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

It's hilarious listening to some of the opposing viewpoints. "Savings are down but wealth (home values) is way up", "House prices will go up by a normal (ha!) 10% next year", "Sub-prime is a tiny blip", "DOW upto 16,000", etc. The arrogance and the mockery that Schiff was facing was hilarious.

He was right though! Housing was screwed, financials were a horrible investment, non-mortgage based credit would dry up too, etc.
 

Well, I do not understand that if property was a bad buy, why was I not warned by the moderators of this forum. They claim they are running a financial advice forum. I can not get my head around it. It would be nice if Brendan would clear the air on this one.
 
charliemacck is evidently a plant by the Property Pin website, yet another example of the immaturity that pervades that site. Those little boys just can't accept that they got chucked out of Askaboutmoney and are now trying to wind up Askaboutmoney regulars because their own failed attempt at analternative site isn't up to much.

See also here.
 

That is terrible abuse and here is me standing up against abuse from all types around here. I'm not sure what the point of that link is but I can see you are a fine fella sticking up for the wheelers and dealers with your fingers in a few pies (I am not being dirty). Keep hammering them. As you well know I would have those Pin fellas up for trial for treason if I could. Are you really the same fella who was the lead singer of the Damned.
 


Ah now, you're just being very silly at this stage. Have you considered a stage career with (perhaps) D' Unbelievables?

mf
 
mf1 said:
Ah now, you're just being very silly at this stage. Have you considered a stage career with (perhaps) D' Unbelievables?

mf
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Right I know when I am not wanted like a profit in his own land. I thought I could find wheelers and dealers and Celtic Tigers here like myself, men who made this country great by buying and selling lots of houses to each other. But even those fellas have turned on on me when I just ask a simple question or two about foreseeing the property correction. Its is a sad day to lose a home, first the PDs are gone and now this. Goodbye cruel world.
 
A very obvious troll...if someone from the Pin was behind that I'd be disappointed as I am an avid reader of both AAM and the Pin!
 

True story. We have a secret hidden forum where we plot the downfall of AAM all night long.
 

is it really the job of a website to determine your financial advice and guide you?
 


The closest I know of in print is my Masters Thesis from March 2006:

Predicted that massive loan taking through deregulation and new loan types would cause a credit crisis due to higher interest rates.
House prices would start decreasing and the credit contraction would initiate a reinforcing process leading to a widespread credit crisis.
Due to the size of the credit expansion the credit crisis would lead to a financial crisis and highly likely to a global recession...


Other people like
Roubini is said to have stated it (havent seen anything on print).
Quite a few have stated that house prices were overvalued...
Shiller, Brochner Madsen etc


Take a look at my site...


Merry Christmas
Jens
 
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