Deposit rates -> 1 year higher or lower, insights welcome

[burmo]

Hi all,

I am making a few decisions at the moment and trying to understand will the deposit rates tend to be higher or lower in a year?

I imagine if the ECB rate increase it could be easier for the bank savings accounts to increase.

Also though I hear that a lot of the high interest accounts will tend to fall as Anglo may wind up and other banks trying to reduce costs.

Any opinions welcome!

 

[Lightning]

Some people argue they will be higher because
1) ECB rates are likely to have gone up by the end of 2010
2) The Irish banks have high loan to deposit ratios and need to bring them down
3) Some banks like PTSB can't use NAMA to bring their ratio down
4) Some banks will use deposits to help re-capatalise.
5) The ECB emergency 6/12 month repo's run out in June 2010 and Greek and Irish banks, in particular, will need a substitute in the form of more deposits
6) Tesco and Virgin Money may enter the market creating more competition.

Some people argue they will be lower because
1) NAMA will result in a lesser need for deposits by banks
2) The high interest rates for savers above ECB/Euribor are not sustainable
3) Margins are been squeezed at the banks

I think there will be declines in rates over the next 4 months or so followed by a gradual raise in rates and they will be higher in 12 months time.