How many of those deaths will be a result of people not attending their doctor, not going to A&E etc? The indirect deaths caused by Covid19?Hi Purple
A very good question.
I think that we need to look at how many deaths do we have more than the normal level of deaths.
For example, I think we have around 30,000 deaths a year in Ireland. If that rises to 50,000 , then it looks as if 20,000 die as a result of CV.
But, that really means, that they died earlier than expected. The number of deaths expected for 2020, 2021 and 2022 will probably not be any different.
Brendan
The fact that many countries are only reporting Covid19 deaths which take place in hospitals (i.e. they are grossly under reporting the total) probably accounts for a large amount of the total difference.https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html The Economist has a similar story
So do we wait 12 month plus for a vaccine and suffer the catastrophic economic and social consequences or do we try to keep higher risk groups safe while unwinding the restrictions and build a herd immunity, thereby reducing the economic and social consequences of the lockdown?An interesting thought experiment is "would people be so compliant if exposure to risk was definitively limited to over 80s or indeed to those born between the spring equinox and the next full moon?". I am not being cynical about the level of community solidarity but I suggest that the main driver of the compliance is fear for self. I have seen angry looks by people out walking when they deem someone to have come too close. They are not saying, "you are endangering folk in nursing homes", they are saying "you are endangering me!".
Because there is another grim calculus behind the statistics. A person of 30 may indeed be at much less risk than a person of 80 but there are 3 reasons for them to be much more concerned about that risk.
1. In terms of normal mortality the 80 year old was already 100 times more at risk and someone in a nursing home was 500 times more at risk. In other words the proportional increase in risk brought by Covid could actually be higher for the 30 year old.
2. A 30 year old would be putting at risk an expectation of 40 years of quality life.
3. The collateral emotional and economic harm to others is likely to be on a different scale following the death of a 30 year old.
That's above my pay grade Purple. From the start there has been a reactionary voice arguing that the "cure should not be worse than the disease". But they used a simple calculus in their argument claiming that economic and social disruption can itself cost lives, seeming to suggest that it was a game of minimising the numbers of deaths.So do we wait 12 month plus for a vaccine and suffer the catastrophic economic and social consequences or do we try to keep higher risk groups safe while unwinding the restrictions and build a herd immunity, thereby reducing the economic and social consequences of the lockdown?
But it might get far more nuanced than that, for example we might have to ask questions like "is an extra few months in dementia worth the loss of livelihood to a young family?"
We have always made trade offs between quantity of life and quality of life. For example if deaths by road traffic accidents were deemed to be avoidable at all costs we would ban the motor car.
Good point and a difficult but very valid question.But it might get far more nuanced than that, for example we might have to ask questions like "is an extra few months in dementia worth the loss of livelihood to a young family?"
Clearly the latter. Ease restrictions gradually and only reapply if the health system starts to buckle.So do we wait 12 month plus for a vaccine and suffer the catastrophic economic and social consequences or do we try to keep higher risk groups safe while unwinding the restrictions and build a herd immunity, thereby reducing the economic and social consequences of the lockdown?
"is an extra few months in dementia worth the loss of livelihood to a young family?"
But it might get far more nuanced than that, for example we might have to ask questions like "is an extra few months in dementia worth the loss of livelihood to a young family?"
Good point. If someone is transferred to an ICU and then dies are they part of the nursing home numbers or part of the hospital numbers? If they are part of the hospital numbers them the proportion of fatalities from nursing homes is being under reported.And, how many people have been transferred from NH to hospital and then died in hospital
Good point. If someone is transferred to an ICU and then dies are they part of the nursing home numbers or part of the hospital numbers? If they are part of the hospital numbers them the proportion of fatalities from nursing homes is being under reported.
That's good. I have been impressed with the honesty and general quality of information from the Minister and Dr Tony Holohan.No, the breakdown is available for those who come from residential settings into a hospital environment and pass away.
No, the breakdown is available for those who come from residential settings into a hospital environment and pass away.
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