Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Asking prices are dropping in many areas.

Here's another two for you - southside this time. Myhome doesn't always cache on google but the mapping section sometimes does!

Dundrum, Original listing : €890,000


New listing €850,000 - a price reduction of €40,000
[broken link removed]=

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Shankill, Original listing €645,000


New listing €635,000 a price reduction of €10,000
[broken link removed]=
 


I live in dundrum, I know where that house is. 6 months ago 850K would have been a huge price to pay for that house never mind 890K. IMO 850K is probably one of the highest prices for a house in that estate. So while it looks like a reduction in asking price it isnt compared with prices in that estate 6 months ago.

Possible reason for reduction in price from 890K is that there is a halting/traveller site going in right near that estate, if it isnt there already. Alot of people have sold there in college park way because of that but it doesnt seem to be effecting prices too much. There is also a new block of apartments going in beside the estate too (dundrum point), in front of the halting site.....record prices being asked, see this thread http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=51812014

I know what you are saying about prices appearing to drop, but what is happening is more like the increase in price is getting smaller, not that the price is dropping....if that makes sense.
 
whathome said:
Asking prices are dropping in many areas.
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How do these asking prices compare to houses previously sold in the area (i.e. is it the case that the sellers vastly over-estimated how much the property was worth)?

It would also be interesting to note what the final selling price ends up at. They may be dropping the price to provoke interest (and consequently a bidding war) with the final selling price pushed up beyond the original asking price.

What would be most useful would be if we had a reliable way to track inventory. Rising inventory is surely the most reliable sign of a slowdown in the market.

But please, please no meaningless daft numbers ...
 
whathome said:
Asking prices are dropping in many areas.


New listing €850,000 - a price reduction of €40,000
New listing €635,000 a price reduction of €10,000
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People could be more eager to sell while buyers are not so keen, doesnt mean much yet,in a months time we'll know what the autumn selling season is like, i wouldnt be suprised if we get another final spurt of price growth as people panic and buy before higher interest rates reduces amount they can borrow.Never underestimate the irrationality of a bubble market .even if prices are 10-20 % higher by next summer they will go no higher than that for many years(restricted borrowing,less affordability,renting even better value, world economic slowdown)
 
bearishbull said:
People could be more eager to sell while buyers are not so keen, doesnt mean much yet
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Well as I've said many times before, this is exactly what happened when prices dropped in 2001. I was active in the market then also.

It does point to a change in sentiment. With interest rates now 1% higher than they were nine months ago, a final spurt looks very unlikely at this stage.
 

Im hoping the media (well those that arent completley biased and in property markets pocket) will get the inside information from estate agents etc when inventories start building up and houses dont shift at the highest prices identical houses sold at earlier in the year, this could be next month or if may not be for a year but it will happen. Its a good story and i'd say the indo and examiner will be eager to get the info,plus people working in industry will tell friends etc of slowing/falling amrket and it will get around very quickly in ireland.
 
homeowner said:
IMO 850K is probably one of the highest prices for a house in that estate.
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Oh really? What about the one listed at the bottom of this cached page for €1,400,000.


I take your point that rises may not be as strong but that's what everyone thinks at the tipping point in a bubble market.
 
In fairness the 1.4m is a 5 bed, that said doubt if the extra room makes up for the 510k drop.
 
whathome said:
I take your point that rises may not be as strong but that's what everyone thinks at the tipping point in a bubble market.
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Actually, typically in a bubble market the rises are strongest at the end as the last batch of fools jumps in at any price. It is only then that everybody realises there is no greater fool to sell to and everyone trys to get out at once leading to a crash.

A slowdown in growth rather than a massive final upward spike might be postive as it means a crash is less likely. I'll reserve judgement until Sept/Oct but I think we'll see a major jump in prices before the end.
 
room305 said:
I'll reserve judgement until Sept/Oct but I think we'll see a major jump in prices before the end.
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But did we not see a(n) (unexpected) major jump in Spring sales?
 
If you look at the market logically something like [broken link removed] shows that we are in for a big correction.
 
whathome said:
Oh really? What about the one listed at the bottom of this cached page for €1,400,000.


I take your point that rises may not be as strong but that's what everyone thinks at the tipping point in a bubble market.
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But thats a 5 bed house. You posted a link to a 3 bed house. I meant a record for a similar house, come on you cant compare the prices of a 3 bed with a 5 bed.
 
phoenix_n said:
If you look at the market logically something like [broken link removed] shows that we are in for a big correction.
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Lol, since when did logic come into it.

That does seem crazy, but I bet someone will buy it
 
StoppedClock said:
But did we not see a(n) (unexpected) major jump in Spring sales?
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Absolutely agree - the market went completely crazy in Feb/March. I think that was the final spurt.

There's another major factor to consider. The "hangers-on"

Everyone we bid against during the year were "hanging on" to their existing house to trade up. Our bank virtually pleaded with us to hang on to our existing property. This created a temporary shortage in the market during the spring. Hangers-on will be far less likely to hang on going forward, pushing prices lower. Hanging-on created huge froth and that resulted in the final spurt.
 
phoenix_n said:
If you look at the market logically something like [broken link removed] shows that we are in for a big correction.
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Drumcondra Dublin 3 The map disagrees!
Excellent rental potential Wonder will it even cover half the interest on an interest only mortgage and the spending of a fortune renovating it and on stamp duty?
 
phoenix_n said:
If you look at the market logically something like [broken link removed] shows that we are in for a big correction.
Click to expand...

Wow! What a bargain at only half a mil. I love the look of the landscaped garden. Yes, there is definitely a big correction ahead!

I'd just be surprised if the correction begin as price growth moderation. I would have expected a huge spike followed by a complete absence of buyers for several months. After which we will see a long brutal period of correction dragging out for many years.

Not ruling out the possibility of the spike having occured but I haven't noticed any real change of sentiment outside of this thread.
 
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