Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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whathome said:
For a second there, I thought you were trying to be serious
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The comments from daft were said in seriousness (aparantly), and the person who said them to me believes them to be very true and sensible (because there wont be a crash/decrease in prices!) but I dont believe them to be necessarily true or even close which is why i put in the !!
 

"I heard it from somebody who was talking to somebody" immediately relegates it to rubbish IMO

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telephone_game
 


here here.

and their ability to pay is ever decreasing due to inflation being above wage pegging.

and inflation here is not the bandied about hicp figure of 3.2% which accounts for a basket of goods, but on neccisity inflation which is alot alot higher.
 
whathome said:
This comes up every few days. Knowing there will be a crash, discussing it and finding it fascinating is not the same as wanting a crash.
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Oh this old chestnut, lets not talk its bad, voddo talk bad, oh no...

I don't want a crash, I don't want a bubble - who wants either?? No one in heir right mind

Both are super bad. Look at the thread the grief its causing.

Yet the Capital system we swim in DEMANDS that there be boom & bust cycles.

Noone ever asks us what do we want the system doesn't have a facility to ask questions of its subject/entities. So we talk aboutu "market sentiment" which seem only ever to be very clear and most exact in extreme circumstances like now. Terrible way to do business! Terrible way to live....




So thats settles that. Another one to check of the ever growing litany of excuses (it was never a real contributing factor in the first place), so now what is holding the FTBs back now then eh!
 
I bought a year ago on the basis that i just got fed up being bear for years, (like back to 97!!!). The reason I switched opinion was that a) I just got to 'that age' when you're expected to own a house and b) the Vested Interests led by the govt. are so prevalent and dominant that trying to fight it was a pointless game.

Now that a definite switch in sentiment has occured, and that 2nd hand supply has increased dramatically what strategies do Vested Interests have? Surely the tap of supply has to be turned off as they attempt this so called soft landing. I expect new starts to drop off starting in Q3 this year. Will this be enough? I expect a fight from EA's, lenders, govt. beyond just sending stooges into TV & radio studios........
 
Open_Window said:
So thats settles that. Another one to check of the ever growing @excuse@ list excuse list (it was never a real contributing factor in the first place), so now what is holding the FTBs back eh!
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I'm not so sure. The only thing that Cowen has completely ruled out is the abolishment of stamp duty (a la PD's kite-flying). IMHO Cowen can legitimately tinker with SD levels/rates for FTBs and argue that it is not 'interfering with the market'. The argument would run along the lines of... the SD levels/rates on 2nd hand houses for FTBs was distorting the market. This change will correct that distortion and give the poor young folk of Ireland a chance to achieve their dream of owning their own shoebox, I mean home....
Just my opinion - roll on December to find out!
 

you could be onto something there. If he said he was looking at modifying the stamp duty situation, estate agents may aswell have gone on holidays until the first week of Dec as nobody in their right mind would purchase property in the meantime.

I don't think he'll get rid of it, but I'd expect some tinkering - enough to let MickeyMcD claim some credit (perhaps payback for eventually supporting Bertie in his recent troubles).
 
Arthur Daley said:
I expect new starts to drop off starting in Q3 this year. Will this be enough? I expect a fight from EA's, lenders, govt. beyond just sending stooges into TV & radio studios........
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EA's, Devlopers, and Lenders wanted to see rising prices forever but even the least realistic of them (Miriam?) realise that it cannot go on for ever so even though they would prefer not to admit it all of then knew it would eventually turn.

What should be interesting now is to compare what the different sectors next best scenario would be given that the tide has turned/is turning.

EA's : anything as long as stuff sells, if ALL investors sell their stock at even half current market value they will still make record profits. I could see some of these guys turning uber -bear once they believe the tide has turned. They probably have it figured that say 30%** of the market needs to change hands before all those who are going to sell have sold so best to do it in as short a time as possible and get back into ramping the market again.

Devlopers: Would like it to remain at least static so they can continue making record profits but if it falls they will complete their current builds and shake their bling bling booty back to Marbela, ocasionally coming back to buy Landbanks for the next hoorah in a few years.

Lenders : Senior Management retire swiftly to play golf, constantly scoff at the new managers saying they are making a balls of it, pass on as much loss to the shareholders until finally the call for the old hands to be returned to the helm is irresistable and they gracefullt come out of retirement in 5 years on huge retainers.

Gubberment: Claim that the crash was their idea and that they are the champions of the young people of Ireland; emigrants have no vote so who gives?; all the poeple who get burned will be chastised for their own gallability and will be urged (CJH style) to tighten their belts and remember they are better off then there Great Grandparents could have ever dreamed.

**top of head stuff here
 
miju said:
it has in the older generations , there has been a massive transfer of wealth from young people to older people during the celtic tiger and the reason??? yer only man property
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I know David McWilliam peddles this line as well but I don't think it makes any sense. The older generation have wealth because they worked for 30 or 40 years. The younger generation don't have wealth because they are just out of college and starting into their careers.

Ok, older people have the luxury of taking a slice of equity out of their homes and retire earlier and younger people feel they have to take on a quarter million in debt to get a foot on the ladder, but this is not a transfer of wealth.

It is more realistically a transfer of credit from old to young, older people are more likely to have cash deposits in the bank, and these are then lent to the younger generation. Saying it is a tranfer of wealth from young to elderly is probably something David McWilliams thought up on a Saturday teatime to fill up some SBP column inches.
 


We went through all this on Wednesday, what parts did you not get then or are you an amnesiac?
 
http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=4297&CatID=54&StartDate=1+January+2006&m=p

Cowen's speech last night - the Headline grabbing bit (as in Cowen Rules out SD changes) is:

"Budget 2007 will be a continuation of the policy of prudence, efficiency and fairness. I realise that this might disappoint those who are attracted to short-term solutions or easy excitement. "

But what about:
"attention seems to settle on actual cuts in rates. But a widening of bands or an increase in credits is also a tax cut. "

So widening the SD bands could be prudent, efficient and fair.....
 
Here's how RTE is quoting him (emphasis mine):


Possible Strategy of the top o'me head here might be to try make it to the election while the emerging situation is still easy to confuse with a soft landing - price "adjustments" but no crash. They can claim credit for managing a soft landing.

They can also use the stamp duty promise to gain votes in the election and to offer it as an implicit fix in case the housing market does nose-dive in early 2007.
 
I think the government are going to steer clear of the whole SD issue, it's a no win
situation for them. If they change it to keep the bubble inflating then they'll have to
deal with the fallout if there re-elected. If they change it to speed up a correction in
the market it may take the help with a so called "soft-landing" scenario but it'll be
a very unpopular decision in the short term.

IMO they'll stay well clear of it and hope the s**t doesn't hit the fan before
election time.
 
dontaskme said:
The older generation have wealth because they worked for 30 or 40 years. The younger generation don't have wealth because they are just out of college and starting into their careers.
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no the majority of older people have wealth because they owened property before the property bubble

the young are not wealthy because they are up to their eyes in mortgage debt that was used to pay for the older peoples pre boom properties

like i said transfer of wealth from young to old
 

Agreed

He said his strong inclination is not to interfere in the housing market and that nobody is suggesting there will be any change in the stamp duty regime in the near term.
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Except Alan Cooke, Chief Executive of IAVI who said in an interview with Hookie the other day that it would change and Cowen was not in position to know for sure what is going to be in the budget because it is not prepared until Budget day (or something equally ludicrous).

I wonder what assurances he recieved in the Tent?
 
whathome said:
With regard to widening bands, he was talking about income tax, not SD and clarified that in an interview with RTE later in the day.
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I saw the RTE article but couldn't find any direct quotes - but I take your point that it was regarding income tax, not SD.
However, it does leave the door open (IMO) as tax cuts - esp in the form of band-widening - is a stated policy of the Govt so it is consistent for them to widen the SD bands (in line with Govt policy of tax cuts) rather than abolish SD (a significant change in policy).

I suppose it's all moot anyway - why am I suddenly believing what politicians say!?!?
 
I put a box room up on daft during the summer and eventually got a suitable person after 6 weeks and only 4 viewings (no Irish). I put another room in the same house on daft two weeks ago and got 20 viewings in two days. One Irish person. The rest broke down to those leaving the Southern European summer working market, people wanting to get into an Irish construction related industry, those who have just left college and one student. Few, if any, of these new immigrants can afford to become a FTB in Ireland.

By Christmas those with a place will stay, those without will go home and say to their friends that there is no room in Dublin and the rental price is too expensive versus the starting wages that are in Ireland. So the investment sellers will find in January that their property has been on the market for 3 to 9 months. This might be a good time to approach them saying that you'll look after/rent their place until the summer selling season and move out then, at which time it won't sell anyways.

I wonder if Cowan realised that as more investors put there properties on the market, where Irish FTBs will wait (and can wait longer than the vendor), the fewer economy fuelling cheap labour immigrants will stay (too expensive to rent when the lease comes up). They might say "lets go home for Christmas" and either return to London in the new year to work on that Olymipc thingy, or take out an NIB mortgage on a Polish(or relative homeland) property and open a business with all the money that they have made here over the last five years. Especially with €8bn in EU infrastructure going into Poland and a stream of cheap Romanians to employ as they once were by the Irish. How many immigrants will return in the new year, how many new ones will come with them, what will our reputation as the European employment promised land in 2007 and how many unsold properties will there be?
 


Good post but it hurt my eyes to read it, too small.
 
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