room305 said:North side, not a great area but close to the city and well served by buses. Small 1 bed but it has a decent sized garden and crappy apartments and duplexes near-by seem to be selling at ridiculous sums.
Problem is I guess, that there may well be an abundance of 1 beds on the market by that time. However, it would need to drop in value by over 30% (based on a conservative current market value), to get less than what I paid for it.
Agreed. Just look at myhome.ie. Investors are already starting to get out of the market. Most new 1/2 bed apt/duplexs that are being sold, EA's on myhome are marketing them to FTB and.......'investors'.Duplex said:The first area to suffer will be the speculator market, flats, semis and terraces in their price range. I don't think it will be too difficult to gather evidence of a build up in inventory in this sector. The speculator sector is critical to what will happen to the wider market. This sector is more volatile more sentiment driven and hence much more fickle.
walk2dewater said:What's to stop government giving subsidies/tax breaks/dole to jumbo mortgage holders in danger of being repossessed? Surely that would be a popular voting grabbing, policy?
CapitalCCC said:But our infrastructure is appalling - so the Poles being here early and telling their friends about IRELAND could be a double-edged sword.
Once groups of them go to Spain/Portugal and word gets about that their main motorway is not a CAR PARK, that they have trains and buses that actually WORK, that it is possible to play sports and have other hobbies besides go to the PUB every night I reckon you would see a mass exodus quickly.
conor_mc said:Your real risk isn't in the value dropping by 30%, it's in simply not being able to find a buyer for months on end and then having to delay your departure until you've sold. If you're definitely leaving the country, I'd be prepared to sell in a hurry any time between now and then should the market start to look a bit wobbly.
It's a bit like your pension, you need to move your funds into something less volatile as D-Day approaches.
kane3000 said:Do you think this scenario could actually happen, that hard working tax dollars would be used to bail out fools who have over-burdened themselves with debt ? That would be outrageous!
What about signing the contracts at sale?room305 said:Cheers conor_mc, I don't think I'd have to be sold-up before I go. When I move I'll be renting (might even be lucky enough to get a job with accomodation included - who knows ;-)) so I won't need the lump sum for anything and I'll be happy to leave it on the market a while if necessary.
redo said:What about signing the contracts at sale?
delboy159 said:phoenix_n - My miniumum value is well above what I paid for the property. In fact the min value I'd sell at is 64% above what I actually paid for the place (not incl stamp, legal, etc.). Also, the estate agents value is 80% above what I paid for it. So those "what I paid for it" considerations are not in the equation for me.
So to answer your question (sorry for rambling) I would not even consider selling it for what I bought it for two and a half years ago.
CapitalCCC said:But our infrastructure is appalling - so the Poles being here early and telling their friends about IRELAND could be a double-edged sword.
Once groups of them go to Spain/Portugal and word gets about that their main motorway is not a CAR PARK, that they have trains and buses that actually WORK, that it is possible to play sports and have other hobbies besides go to the PUB every night I reckon you would see a mass exodus quickly.
macbri said:who is going to drive future demand given our housing outputs at historical highs ,housing stock density at historical lows and affordability at historical lows?
Agree 100% with this statement.macbri said:Poles and other 'low cost' immigrants are not going to feed the housing market.
You should give the Poles a lot more credit. I work with Polish engineers and they're top notch with excellent English. The university system in Poland is very competitive and challenging unlike in today's Ireland where universities are full of middle-class kids who go to study for the 'experience' (I'm thinking Arts UCD, BE$$ Trinity et. al.)macbri said:These immigrants come here to work mostly in minimum wage jobs(tourism,catering,retail etc) save money and send it home.
Unemployment in Poland is 18% and wages are a quarter of Irish wages.
Internet, email, instant messaging, low-cost flights, etc. implies high mobility - they know where the money is they'll go where the money is. I'll be quite happy to join them soon if things go pear shaped.macbri said:They will support the rental market until employment boom in Ireland is over.As we all know employment boom in Ireland has been driven by housing(construction market) over the last 4 years .
Madness.macbri said:Average price of a house in Ireland is close to $300k euro whilst average earnings between $30k-$40k.
Yup.macbri said:Again,I ask the question-who is going to drive future demand given our housing outputs at historical highs ,housing stock density at historical lows and affordability at historical lows?
Not only is this true for Poles (the fact that you earn more in a non-skilled job), it also applies to young Irish professional people. No wonder Irish boys aren't exerting themselves to go to university - they know where the money is. House building.macbri said:I am not having a got at the Poles or any immigrant group.
All I am trying to say is that they can earn more in a non skilled job here than a skilled job in their own homeland.
Fair play to them if they can pick up a professional/trade position but I still can't see them being a factor in housing demand
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