Current public sentiment towards German property market

dontaskme

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AS there have been a few mentions of Germany in the "Current public sentiment towards the (Irish) housing market", I thought it might be interesting to split this off into another thread.

Some of the background economics:

As far as I understand it, prices have dropped in the past 15 years. After the Wall came down there was a flood of investment from the west as people expected property prices to become pretty much similar to Western German prices.

There was also a huge splurge of building commercial property in the early 90´s due to massive tax breaks put in place to facilitate the improvement of the infrastructure here. There may have been an expectation that German companies would move their headquarters from the West to the East to take advantage of lower wages, lower rents etc. but this has not happened.

There is a tax charged on payrolls for the cost of reunification i.e. transfer payments from West to East. The transport minister Wolfgang Tiefensee, himself from the east, has recently talked about splitting this into two streams - one for those areas that are suffering from declining population would be to maintain living standards in those areas and the other, in the 19 areas and cities of the east that are experiencing population growth would pay for infrastructure and capital investment to make those areas more attractive. (Assuming I´ve correctly understood the article that was written in German).

There is an new underground train link being built near where I live and the local airport is being upgraded and I´ve seen some big roads being built so they´re not spending all the money on pointless job creation schemes.

Unemployment is persistently high in eastern Germany. The official government figure for Germany as a whole is 10.5% but this includes some part-time workers. Using EU or international figures, the rate may be nearer to 9%. Something like 1 in 4 over-50´s are unemployed.

Inflation is running at an annualised 1.9% according to the latest monthly figures. Note that an a VAT increase of 3% to 19% will probably add to consumer prices next year.

There was a lot of talk about yields in the other thread, and I would guess that they are higher here. However there are also very many empty apartments. There are estimated to be at least half a million vacant apartments across the former east Germany. There are also very many buildings that are falling into disrepair, something that you don´t really see back in the old country. There is a problem with grafitti on buildings, including on older buildings with listed or protected decor - in this case I assume the landlord would probably have to pay to have them cleaned.

I´m living and working in the former East Germany and I rent an apartment.
 
According to the US Federal Reserve Study of international housing markets, prices in Germany have been falling for 25 years. I have yet to read anything that really convinces me that they are suddenly going to rise now. I also wonder if a stronger economy will cause a cultural shift in the German way of thinking i.e. that renting is better than buying.
 
Even though there does not appear to be any chance of a sustained upswing in the German economy in the near future that I can see, sentiment towards German residential property has certainly improved. However, a lot of this was due to private equity funds buying large numbers (in some cases hundereds of thousands) of formerly state or corporate-owned appartments over there. I think that the firms concened have made good returns on these investments but then the average cost of each of the properties they bought was probably relatively low. What they were probably looking for was the fairly stable rental income which was (I imagine) a good deal in excess of the cost of finance.

The Irish retail investor seems to be atracted by the promise of comparatively better rental yields but, as many posters have pointed out, the stucture of the German residential property market is quite different from that of Ireland so the much hoped for capital gains may not materialise.

So, yes sentiment towards German residential property seems to be positive, but then again what property market does not look good to the Irish property investor? To be fair to the hoard of property mad speculators that are operating there at the moment though, they seem to realise that rental yield may actually be an important determinant of the value of a property which is a step forward I suppose.
 

I don't think that's really true. Property prices did rise quite a bit sometime around the period 1987 to 1993. Since then prices have been more or less constant in nominal terms (which is a fall in real terms) in the better areas, and falling in not so good areas.

The tax breaks for East German properties in the early to mid 90s was not just for commercial properties, but also residential properties. AFAIK the primary focus was residential properties. This resulted in too much supply. Following (re)unification there was a huge loss of jobs in the east as the companies there could no longer compete once they were forced to pay West German wages. This has resulted in population decline from large parts of Eastern Germany. As a result, these properties built in the 90s are now often worth only about half what was paid for them (personally know someone who lost money on an appartment and is now trying to let it to students). However A few areas in East Germany (mainly Leipzig and to a lesser extent Dresden AFAIK) are doing quite well in terms of economics and job creation.

Some of the old traditional industrial cities in West Germany are also suffering from population decline due to job losses. Typical examples would be Gelsenkirchen and perhaps Essen.

In contrast, cities such as Munich, Stuttgart, Frankfurt and Hamburg, and many smaller cities like Wiesbaden, Darmstadt, Nuernberg etc, are doing well economically. There is strong demand for rental accomodation in many of these cities. However, even here I also find it hard to see much scope for significant capital gains.

Berlin is a law onto itself with its half western, half eastern history. Very high unemployment as most people know. However it is the Federal Capital now and one can expect more civil servants and lobbyists to move there over the next 10 years.

If I was living in Germany I would certainly consider investment there, though I would be wary of Berlin (partially due to the high EA commission of 6 to 7% there). However I think there could be tax problems which make it less economical if you are an irish resident.