Coronavirus and the markets

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cremeegg

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The coronavirus makes the markets more democratic.

There are no experts.

There is no advantage accruing to drivers of supercomputers.

The market has priced in all available information, but the market has no experience in pricing something like this. Price is driven by emotion, a cool head is at an advantage.

Coronavirus has not yet claimed many victims in the US, all the bulls are not dead. The markets will fall further (Dow 24,504 S&P 2,830) when the Americans become truly scared. The S&P is up approx 30% from its pre crash high, so a lot of profit to be given up.

This coronavirus is big the markets will fall until greed has been completely replaced by fear.

Trying to time the exact bottom is a fools game, but its a long way down from here.
 
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Brendan Burgess said:
Sounds to me like you consider yourself an expert?
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If by expert you mean, someone with specialised knowledge and experience in the stock markets reaction to a pandemic, no I certainly not an expert.

I am someone in the fortunate position of being under no pressure to have a reaction ready for these circumstances. I have no investors to report to. I can afford to take a detached view.

In my view the markets have not yet fully priced in the extent of the coronavirus. And in my view, and also in my experience, (I was invested before during and after the crash, also the 2000 telecoms crash when I was an active investor ) the markets will eventually overshoot and offer real value.

I don't know when that will be, and I won't recognise the bottom when it comes but it hasn't come yet.

I would be interested to hear your own view, no expertise expected :)
 
Brendan Burgess said:
My expert view is that the market will either rise or fall from here. But I have no way of knowing which path it will take.

Brendan
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I don't know either, but for the first time since markets recovered from the financial crisis, I have a strong view.
 
cremeegg said:
In my view the markets have not yet fully priced in the extent of the coronavirus. And in my view, and also in my experience, (I was invested before during and after the crash, also the 2000 telecoms crash when I was an active investor ) the markets will eventually overshoot and offer real value.
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Interested to know what data and experience is driving your view?

My view is we are in unchartered waters (Dow Jones largest one day drop, trade war etc), but the financial system (Banks) is better capitalized to weather the storm, so we should not see defaults of banks to the same extent as before. My view which is already happening is that governments are going to support companies to help weather the storm, I believe Ireland and other countries have already set funds aside for this. Lastly, we may even see the Central banks become a buyer of last resorts of stocks etc.

I won't prophesize where the market will settle but it is fair that we will see heightened volatility over the coming months.
 
Forget your crystal ball , look into your creme egg for the future ;)
Almost everyone thinks the same thing , America is going to get hit hard with this virus and markets are going to take a dive. It's obvious . it's simple , we all load up when this dip comes wait a few months till this thing goes away and sell make a few easy grand. But all we know is we know nothing , a simulation I read tonight says this won't peak till next winter. The market is volatile , I think its a coin toss each day now for the foreseeable future what way the markets move daily , you could be lucky some days and not on others . I am going to sit on the sidelines with my own lump sum as the risk/reward is not worth it for me at the moment, i'll still keep up my regular investing and should average out the highs and lows over the next foreseeable.
 
obviously i havent a clue when the bottom will be in , might it be possible however that the current market level might reflect how serious corona is likely to be ?

to put it another way , the big money men are pretty smart , they know damn well that corona will bring a lot of disruption to the united states and are pricing in a bad year already ? , again im not calling a bottom , it might drop another 25% but the big money usually dumps ahead of very bad news

just a theory
 
When Warren jumps in with a little of his 128 Billon I,m going straight in after him. He said he would call and let me know just before he pulls the trigger,:p
 
Friday 13th looms. USA has dragged its feet on Covid 19. Markets braced for major fall.
As far as virus is concerned the USA will be another Italy and end of Trump.
Only a vaccine will save Trump.
 
My final post here. You can heed it or ignore it. Markets are going to crumble the bottom I cannot call. Some of you wont really care what a poster has to say. Correct, I am only an opinion. Wishing you all good health. Those of you who are religious please recite every day Psalm 91.
 
Daddy Ireland said:
My final post here. You can heed it or ignore it. Markets are going to crumble the bottom I cannot call. Some of you wont really care what a poster has to say. Correct, I am only an opinion. Wishing you all good health. Those of you who are religious please recite every day Psalm 91.
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Is reciting a Psalm like casting a spell?
 
cremeegg said:
The coronavirus makes the markets more democratic.

There are no experts.

There is no advantage accruing to drivers of supercomputers.

The market has priced in all available information, but the market has no experience in pricing something like this. Price is driven by emotion, a cool head is at an advantage.

Coronavirus has not yet claimed many victims in the US, all the bulls are not dead. The markets will fall further (Dow 24,504 S&P 2,830) when the Americans become truly scared. The S&P is up approx 30% from its pre crash high, so a lot of profit to be given up.

This coronavirus is big the markets will fall until greed has been completely replaced by fear.

Trying to time the exact bottom is a fools game, but its a long way down from here.
Click to expand...


shaping up to be worse than 2008 the way things are going , truly spectacular wealth destruction in such a short space of time
 
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